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Model output discussion - the beast arrives


Paul
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Please only post model discussion in here! 
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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

Or Monday lol except for southern coasts. 

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Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND

Gfs not the king after all, :cold:cold is fighting back it is not over yet. 

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Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts

Can we keep the low to our South long enough for the next pulse of downwelling? Think Glacier Point said on Friday it would be 10-12 days away. Thats Monday - Wednesday next week...

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Posted
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire

Hirlam sends the first low on Thursday more North, other models have wanted to move it NW as it enters the channel, giving SW England/Wales etc into Ireland. Hirlam has other ideas and pushes it Northwards. Gem has been showing this reguarly but can we trust its progressive push? Fascinating oncemore this situation. 

hitrl.thumb.png.02fa86693bbf6c116c32e044af7db758.png 5a95d98b8c287_hirlam2.thumb.png.d89b478174c155164c95f6d4e0bafe7e.png  hirlam....thumb.png.c8e9dc4819bdc83a4a4e75aba71d55b1.png

Edited by Mark N
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Posted
  • Location: Nottingham.
  • Location: Nottingham.

Keeping the cold but not as cold . A very slow, cloudy warm up by a degree or so every day until Monday (approx 5 degrees) when it will be too warm for any precipitation to be snow. Disaster !

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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
5 minutes ago, Lee Jones said:

Keeping the cold but not as cold . A very slow, cloudy warm up by a degree or so every day until Monday (approx 5 degrees) when it will be too warm for any precipitation to be snow. Disaster !

Unless the trend continues.....

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire

Colder air spreading back south next Wednesday. In fact it stays pretty cold all the way through ?

IMG_1842.PNG

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Posted
  • Location: Canvey Island
  • Location: Canvey Island
5 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Gfs 18z says no to the rash-mild inflow.

And lets quickly remind ourselves how well this suite (18z) has been modeling of late.

The spell has just gone up another notch!!!

To the knowledgeable ones amongst you, could the less cold air associated with the low be affected by the surface cold where snow already lies ?    

Edited by Youcan'tbecirrus
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Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex

Oddly enough a good few of the GEM ensembles were quite bullish on it staying cold earlier. Although GFS is better than GEM I sometimes think the GEMs ensemble suite are a bit better tbh. Could be wrong but I think I recall that they are actually run at quite a good resolution.

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
2 minutes ago, Youcan'tbecirrus said:

To the knowledgeable ones amongst you, could the less cold air associated with the low be affected by the surface cold where snow already lies ?    

That will certainly aid. @entrenched cold.

However-the track and form of emma(portuguese met)...

Can/is/will be modeled on different scales...and minor gradiants will have massive impacts...

Great one to watch...

And thats without mention of the potential dumping of snow in between!!!!

 

Lets have a decco-@18z ens/supports!?.

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
24 minutes ago, Mark N said:

Hirlam sends the first low on Thursday more North, other models have wanted to move it NW as it enters the channel, giving SW England/Wales etc into Ireland. Hirlam has other ideas and pushes it Northwards. Gem has been showing this reguarly but can we trust its progressive push? Fascinating oncemore this situation. 

hitrl.thumb.png.02fa86693bbf6c116c32e044af7db758.png 5a95d98b8c287_hirlam2.thumb.png.d89b478174c155164c95f6d4e0bafe7e.png  hirlam....thumb.png.c8e9dc4819bdc83a4a4e75aba71d55b1.png

I’d expect the amber warning to spread further East on thurs looking at that..

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
5 minutes ago, Lee Jones said:

Hmm, BBC still going for the SW hit on Thursday with moving as far north as Yorkshire 15:00 on Friday. 

Tomorrow the wording of track and change likely mentioned @LPS 

east/west/north-exactions....

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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

If hat low carries on further east into the core of Iberia within the next 18-24 hours, we could be looking at a very different picture as to where it tracks, which could mean more of the UK continuing the resumption of cold and snow, as it will elongate more. A massive trend towards that even on the GFS, which for a few days has wanted to shunt the cold north. Notoriously hard to forecast indeed. 

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Posted
  • Location: Wellingborough
  • Weather Preferences: snow
  • Location: Wellingborough

Are the models programmed to factor in the effects of a sudden stratospheric warming? I don't believe they are, and this could explain the model volatility at present. The jet stream definitely trending more southerly on the majority of runs as they come out.The low imo does not pose an imminent threat to my untrained eye. looking at the satellite images, a lot of energy going eastwards. I think with luck the cold may hold on for sometime..

SVID_20180227_0827.mp4

Edited by Zak94
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