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Paul

Model output discussion - the beast arrives

Paul

Please only post model discussion in here! 
Other options:
Model moans, ramps and banter
Regional discussions

For more focused short-range model discussion:
Short-range Model Discussion

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A busy spell coming up, as the beast from the east arrives.

As the focus of the model thread is often a bit further ahead, for those wanting to talk more exclusively about the shorter term outputs, we do have a short-range thread up and running. (You're still welcome to discuss the shorter term in here too though).

This thread is all about discussing the models - but we have loads of other options for other topics:
As always, please keep it to the models in here, and head over to the banter thread for any moans, ramps and general chat.

For threads related to the cold spell, met office forecasts, the winter overall and much more on top, please take a look at the general weather forum:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/1-winter-and-general-weather-discussion/

And finally, if you're wanting to chat about your local weather, the risk of snow in your particular location etc, then the regional threads are for you:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Want to view the model outputs?
You can get all the major ones here on Netweather:

GFS
GEFS Ensembles
ECMWF
ECMWF EPS
NetWx-SR
NetWx-MR
Met-Office
Fax
GEM
GFS Hourly

Snow forecast and precip type
Model Comparison
Global Jet Stream
Stratosphere

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Have we seen the effects from the second warming yet? 

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7 minutes ago, jessandjon said:

Have we seen the effects from the second warming yet? 

the decimation of the Canadian vortex ?  Seems pretty clear to me

We are nearing the end of a third deceleration of upper zonal winds 

  

3B92EE26-FFB0-4414-81D8-0C3500975B81.thumb.jpeg.9ae0df634bc6f0819efa909e3e210c71.jpeg

Edited by bluearmy
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With discussion of how the models do or don't cope with specific sets of circumstances, I was wondering how often there have been two, or three, SSW events in a short period? 

Presumably the models' accuracy is honed on experience, so to speak, so the more common a weather set-up, the more often the models experience it, so the more accurate they get at that specific set-up - or have I got that wrong? 

I was just wondering how often they've had to try to interpret this kind of SSW+SSW before - anyone able to enlighten me?

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16 minutes ago, OddSpot said:

Lol.:pardon: Last thread closed just after I posted this

Interesting watching how the snow depths increase through the week starting from tomorrow. Whether it is accurate is any ones guess

Press Play at bottom left of screen

https://www.ventusky.com/?p=52.8;6.0;5&l=snow&t=20180226/12

Thats pretty cool impressive

 

 

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Edited by mulzy

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NMM 06z has 4 day's of bitterly cold air UK wide during Friday some less cold air comes up from France so rain would be more likely in the far south and south west maybe some freezing rain in parts of the Midlands for a time with further snow in the north

tempresult_xki5.gif

 

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ICON at +60 has the low pressure in the Atlantic further south. Not sure if that's a good sign. Though high pressure migrating quicker west towards Greenland. For coldies do we want the high pressure to migrate slower towards Greenland?

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Just now, oasis said:

ICON at +60 has the low pressure in the Atlantic further south. Not sure if that's a good sign. Though high pressure migrating quicker west towards Greenland. For coldies do we want the high pressure to migrate slower towards Greenland?

Yes.

A surprisingly progressive NMM posted by Gavin D above. The low just tracks north like the cold isn't even there. Sceptical!

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It will soon be time to see if the 12z runs can keep the blocking to our north a little stronger with a slower progression west.

I think this is the key as currently we see from day 5 how the Azores complex low merges with the Siberian upper trough and this pulls the low coming through Biscay northwards.

See here day 4 and then 6 on the UKMO model although all show similar.

UN96-21.GIF?25-06UN144-21.GIF?25-06

As we can see from the jet pattern the southern low is cut off from the jet and would likely stay further south without this phasing with the Siberian trough.It was always likely that the Scandinavian/Greenland block would ease west and fade with time as this is the expected clockwise rotating pattern as zonal winds reverse down through the layers.Eventually as the warming effects from above finish downwelling and fade away then the PV,or what is left of it,will try to reform and the blocking to our north and north west will disappear.

We have to hope that modeling finds a little more strength and durability in the block just long enough before the whole -NAO setup becomes too west based and the mild to the south does get too far north at the week end.

 

 

 

Edited by phil nw.
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1 minute ago, oasis said:

ICON at +60 has the low pressure in the Atlantic further south. Not sure if that's a good sign. Though high pressure migrating quicker west towards Greenland. For coldies do we want the high pressure to migrate slower towards Greenland?

Yes ideally because this would allow northerlies to stunt the progression of mild air across the UK.

The other alternatives are a weak low that fizzles out in the channel or a low that tracks through central Europe instead (looking unlikely now for the low to take that path).

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yes ^^ see back to back slides for 69 ( we need the big hitters on board as well though ) 12z first

8C7E2376-61E9-46CD-BF82-81F59679E6BD.thumb.png.0aa369a175052f97d10c0838bb7bc480.png42972528-EBB4-49DE-8324-48DF0B6053FB.thumb.png.fcc1682298c76220180a5731cb71b359.png

Also more energy fanning NE over spain...

MIGHT be good signs for later

 

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I like to spend a little bit of time comparing the fax charts as the update as they are good to spot trends or shifts - they also have the input from the MO forecasters.

With regard to the last 2 updates of the fax charts for next wednesday (12z) it shows the low as it approaches spain increasingly flattening on the NE side. 

Further forward, the GFS has the position of this low stalling south of Ireland (Friday AM) and then moving east across the UK on Saturday. 

In the next few updates/runs, and after reviewing the ensemble quite a bit, I would still suggest that it could very much stall between Cornwall and NW France and move up the channel.  Well, the 12z is out now so lets see what the trend is...

 

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Marginally further south on ICON 12z nothing significant so far

icon-0-81.thumb.png.c3caf7e83ebd7ea4179f980373ef3554.pngicon-0-87.thumb.png.c7da1671cf09415b5c4e0e6cc9255125.png

icon-1-99.thumb.png.0c879dc22f07c4927aaadf91a22426f7.pngicon-1-105.thumb.png.25b0d29eddf5ea6425976ffc1d981ad1.png

Edited by Summer Sun

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7 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Yes ideally because this would allow northerlies to stunt the progression of mild air across the UK.

The other alternatives are a weak low that fizzles out in the channel or a low that tracks through central Europe instead (looking unlikely now for the low to take that path).

Curious, ICON looked a lot better for coldies with the low pressure earlier in run, and then later on marginally so.

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Don’t mind if it’s marginally further south. Better than trending north.

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Very GOOD ICON RUN! 

I shouldn't post a snow chart but hey we have a right to be excited. 

 

ICON Friday.PNG

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7 minutes ago, Reverse Zonality said:

Yes.

A surprisingly progressive NMM posted by Gavin D above. The low just tracks north like the cold isn't even there. Sceptical!

Why the scepticism? In Dec 10 the temp rose here from -7c under endless blocked and cold conditions to +10c in less than a day. With a NNE trajectory the cold could be brushed aside very rapidly. That being said still plenty to play for. 

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16 minutes ago, BleakMidwinter said:

With discussion of how the models do or don't cope with specific sets of circumstances, I was wondering how often there have been two, or three, SSW events in a short period? 

Presumably the models' accuracy is honed on experience, so to speak, so the more common a weather set-up, the more often the models experience it, so the more accurate they get at that specific set-up - or have I got that wrong? 

I was just wondering how often they've had to try to interpret this kind of SSW+SSW before - anyone able to enlighten me?

There was only one SSW event, it is common for the zonal wind to bumble along afterwards. It is typically only considered a second SSW after a period of 20 days return of westerly winds.

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      GEFS Ensembles
      ECMWF
      ECMWF EPS
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      NetWx-MR
      Met-Office
      Fax
      GEM
      GFS Hourly
      Snow forecast and precip type
      Model Comparison
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