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South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards

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2 minutes ago, Barometer Obama said:

Don't give up yet. The models all have the low on a slightly different track, yes it may go Pete Tong but it is too early to write it off.

Already has gone Pete Tong. Quite a few people with egg on there faces as far as I'm concerned and I'll hold my hands up and say I'm one of them. Was expecting far worse than this but unfortunately it's easy to get caught up in the hype from the mad thread and look at your own thoughts. Biggest lesson ever learnt from me this year! Never again. 

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1 minute ago, jtay said:

I'm going to the game on Saturday, but if I'm honest, I'm hoping that it gets called off due to snow; so I can go sledging all day. :reindeer-emoji:

That’s exactly my thoughts. Apart from the sledging as I haven’t got a sledge. :rofl:

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10 minutes ago, Kreftysoton said:

Just watched the weather on bbc weather looks depressing for southampton. Snow showers tues morn south east. Heavy band of snow north east through north england then mid wales. Then wed snow focus is scotland. Then thurs all snow out west and low moving up to north england giving southampton rain...depressing if i cant get snow with this cold set up how will i ever.....resignes to it now 

hi not what it says here you will get 1-3 inches thursday according to this check this link https://www.accuweather.com/en/gb/southampton/so14-7/daily-weather-forecast/330732?day=4

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we have more fluffies blowing in the breeze in Reading.. quite moderate but nothing to really get too excited about. Sun still out.

 

Edit as editing it has stopped... bit quick

Edited by Polar Bear

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Feeling the need to withdraw.. but just to say that (everyone else with radar will see) showers really are thickening up and drifting quite deeply into the South of our region. I still have no snow.

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3 minutes ago, Rapodo said:

Already has gone Pete Tong. Quite a few people with egg on there faces as far as I'm concerned and I'll hold my hands up and say I'm one of them. Was expecting far worse than this but unfortunately it's easy to get caught up in the hype from the mad thread and look at your own thoughts. Biggest lesson ever learnt from me this year! Never again. 

I can there is no turning you! But you are correct in that you must never get excited about a snow event until it is virtually upon you. Just watch the BBC forecast on the morning of the Jan 2010 event, they got the snow but the areas worst hit weren't predicted until it was pretty much happening...

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Just now, EllyTech said:

Feeling the need to withdraw.. but just to say that (everyone else with radar will see) showers really are thickening up and drifting quite deeply into the South of our region. I still have no snow.

Am with you on that... am going to take a break and then hopefully get a surprise later. As an Adult don't get many good surprises anymore  :good:

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I am now confused. According to BBC forecast at 1.30 the whole of the South is going to get plastered on Thursday/Friday. Am I missing something and/or being a bit dim?😨

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8 minutes ago, Rapodo said:

Already has gone Pete Tong. Quite a few people with egg on there faces as far as I'm concerned and I'll hold my hands up and say I'm one of them. Was expecting far worse than this but unfortunately it's easy to get caught up in the hype from the mad thread and look at your own thoughts. Biggest lesson ever learnt from me this year! Never again. 

Hi rapodo what do you think of this says we will get 1-3 inches thursday? https://www.accuweather.com/en/gb/bournemouth/bh1-1/daily-weather-forecast/326983?day=4

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Is it pretty much set in stone that the low will head west towards Ireland on Thurs / Fri? Is it more of a case of how far west?

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1 minute ago, noggin said:

I am now confused. According to BBC forecast at 1.30 the whole of the South is going to get plastered on Thursday/Friday. Am I missing something and/or being a bit dim?😨

The televised forecasts look unbelievable but it seems pretty negative in here. Usually it's the other way around lol.

 

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Am I in the right regional discussion group, or is Oxford in a different one? Anyway, we just had a few flakes.

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12 minutes ago, Rapodo said:

Already has gone Pete Tong. Quite a few people with egg on there faces as far as I'm concerned and I'll hold my hands up and say I'm one of them. Was expecting far worse than this but unfortunately it's easy to get caught up in the hype from the mad thread and look at your own thoughts. Biggest lesson ever learnt from me this year! Never again. 

Don't give up just yet, still 3 days to go and the models are still struggling to get a handle on the low pressure in terms of track, intensity, how far north it gets.  I don't think the models do particularly well in dealing with the intense cold air that will be in situ.  I have seen it before where the low has be progged to track up to the midlands and not even made it out of France.  Some of the models have already shown the low stalling. I think its track will be much more important.  Keep the faith, lots more twists and turns to come me thinks!! 

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3 minutes ago, Woollymummy said:

Am I in the right regional discussion group, or is Oxford in a different one? Anyway, we just had a few flakes.

If it's snowing where you are, we'll take it. Welcome aboard.

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Seems to be a line of heavier showers moving down from Norwich towards Swindon, much like the Hirlam model showed earlier :yahoo:

image.thumb.png.39f6264620becfeedb3b096840a06f65.png

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ICON looks better already to me with the Azores low slight further south early on in the run

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Had about 5 snow flurries today so far ,in portsmouth, some were heavier than others. No lying snow yet though.

Snow again now as i type. :D

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Hmm yes. Watching for signs of the HIRLAM solution and that elongated heavier shower crossing London is one of the best so far!

So far today it's been a nice one to look at here, with some bright sunshine broken up by very dark clouds and flurries of snow, sometimes coming down quite fast and near-horizontal with slight accumulations dotted about by the end of each shower. I would call the peak of the conditions a  'faint blizzard' :laugh:. The dry, sunnier interludes have been getting rid of most of those deposits so on a scale of 1 to 10 this event is currently a 2, which still makes it the best since that one freak morning of lying snow from around Oxford to not far north of Bournemouth in Jan 2015. 

Everything so far has been a little beyond the high-res models in terms of shower coverage but not intensity. Among those models, there is a consensus for the best chances of the day for something more noteworthy across CS England to occur between 5 and 9 pm. So an intense period of radar watching coming up and then hopefully some window/lamppost watching. Handy to have the longer daylight hours to see things with now.

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If I don't get some noteworthy snow this week then so far I owe two homemade cakes and a packet of little chocolate eggs to some of my classes to whom I rashly bragged about my inside Netweather knowledge, even showed them forecast charts.....come on Beast!

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Weather warning cancelled for us down here on Wednesday they have put it further north!!!:wallbash:

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4 minutes ago, fromey said:

Weather warning cancelled for us down here on Wednesday they have put it further north!!!:wallbash:

Still showing on my met office app? 

Edit.. My Mistake i thought you had put Thursday Fromey. My bad.. 

Edited by Mark N

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2 minutes ago, fromey said:

Weather warning cancelled for us down here on Wednesday they have put it further north!!!:wallbash:

Tuesday warning for here gone as well.

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1 minute ago, Mark N said:

Still showing on my met office app? 

Sorry meant Tuesday, and Wednesday is only for devon and Cornwall 

388EBBF1-FBB1-4E57-81AA-E38181764E1B.jpeg

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