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South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards


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6 minutes ago, Frosty hollows said:

Met office seems to have imploded!

Yes - just for locations in Cornwall & Devon it seems - Bit awkward when you can not pull up a forecast for the city that the MO are based in.....

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Sod the snow, Tom Baker is trying to steal your car. 

I want to see this in the morning.  

Good afternoon all ,with the passing of my beautifull wife last Autumn things have been rather busy at home but now starting to quieten down ,so today i,v been for a great walk up local woods .with th

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15 hours ago, karlos1983 said:

I’m not in the best of ways, can someone give me a quick summary of how the end of the week looks.

ps cheers @Man With Beard for your words in the Mad thread, hard work being Purbeck coaster ??‍♂️

Hi Karlos, sorry only just picked up your post, hope you're ok

It seems to be the usual Dorset coast nightmare!! The chance of a blizzard, but also the chance of missing it while 20 miles away they're snowed in!!

I think it is completely 50/50 right now, even if the models look 30/70.

Still at least for me it isn't going to be a snow-free week. Two very light snow showers already this morning!

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2 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Hi Karlos, sorry only just picked up your post, hope you're ok

It seems to be the usual Dorset coast nightmare!! The chance of a blizzard, but also the chance of missing it while 20 miles away they're snowed in!!

I think it is completely 50/50 right now, even if the models look 30/70.

Still at least for me it isn't going to be a snow-free week. Two very light snow showers already this morning!

LOL yes I’m fine, was in a bad way this morning, but self inflicted!!

i agree 50/50 atm! 

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3 minutes ago, wiltshire weather said:

Not sure I'm going to get any work done this week! Too busy checking the radar, various model outputs and reading @Bring Back1962-63excellent posts!

Snow showers working their way further across our region currently..

image.thumb.png.afbd71715ba767284ef9c1c9d7f9748a.png

This chart is a bit of an exaggeration though. It's more like a bit of blossom blowing in the wind in Portsmouth.

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It comes to something when it's 2 degrees warmer here than in Portland.

Today's sunshine has meant that February's total is now higher than September's, last year.

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As @Man With Beard has just pointed out in Knocker's thread, the Hirlam has shown more activity than the other models, so it could be argued that it has a better handle than the others for today.

12Z

image.thumb.png.b513f88912aa9d85c9844d1dc05337cb.png

Now

image.thumb.png.d8d911dd22ef98a20eed1dcaa7806c81.png

So then if we run that forwards to 18Z, we get...

image.thumb.png.959dd0b406350051ce7db75dc5e6d655.png

Have a run through for the rest of the day here --> https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/hirlam.php

It looks decent and as I type we have quite a bit of snow blowing around in the wind.

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1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:

This chart is a bit of an exaggeration though. It's more like a bit of blossom blowing in the wind in Portsmouth.

Yes, the very light pink areas are definitely just flurries by the look of it!

Still, nice to see even that as I didn't think we get even that today!

Liked your excellent analysis in the MOD thread btw :)

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8 minutes ago, jtay said:

As @Man With Beard has just pointed out in Knocker's thread, the Hirlam has shown more activity than the other models, so it could be argued that it has a better handle than the others for today.

.......

 

Will be interesting to compare its output with the radar over the next few hours as that slightly heavier precipitation comes across.

 

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See my main issue about whether it snows or not at the end of the week is that unlike the rest of my family I wasn’t so keen on moving to the coast when we did in 2016 for this exact reason, well one of the reasons anyway. Hopefully it won’t matter come the end of the week. 

Clouded over here now after a sunny start, might see a bit of dandruff if I’m lucky from that decaying shower heading this way. 

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2 hours ago, Bristle boy said:

As i hinted in post yday eve AWD that Thurs/Fri low looks like it is heading out away from Ireland into the Atlantic. Might end up being a non-event. Extreme version of the situ mind you

It's Ok.  Warning is now back along with a snowfall forecast right up until the end of Friday on my Meto App.

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1 minute ago, Azazel said:

covering of dandruff has melted now in the balmy -1C sun.

Baltic compared to the dizzy heights of 2.3°C not long ago. 1.4°C now with the cloud moving in. 

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