South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards

[Summer Sun]

 

4 minutes ago, Isleofwightsnowgal74 said:

Totally confused tonight!! Is the iow still in with a chance of substantial snow next week or is that now unlikely?? Or is it just a Friday that’s marginal?? 

At the moment you have a very good chance late Thursday into Friday

[John88B]

Interesting tweet from Fergie.

Perhaps rain (& even freezing rain) subsequently from S/SW but prior to that, an extremely serious blizzard potential. Latest output alarming, frankly, but time on our side to see how this firms-up & tone public messaging accordingly.

Edit. Haha Summer Sun beat me to it!

Edited February 25, 2018 by John88B

[EllyTech]

1 minute ago, John88B said:

Interesting tweet from Fergie.

Perhaps rain (& even freezing rain) subsequently from S/SW but prior to that, an extremely serious blizzard potential. Latest output alarming, frankly, but time on our side to see how this firms-up & tone public messaging accordingly.

You don't see him ramping that often. 

[Summer Sun]

 

[Paul T]

My take on the next 4 or 5 days for the south west...

MONDAY
Very cold start and temps then hovering around zero all day. Very isolated snow showers.

TUESDAY
Bloody cold again. Light to moderate snow in Bristol from 6am for a few hours. This will be moving into Devon a few hours later. Showers then possible for anywhere into the evening. So a dusting likely.

WEDNESDAY
Temps not getting above zero.
A more organised band of snow is forecast to skirt the south coast of Devon and Cornwall from midnight and could last into the afternoon. Personally I think this could produce some decent accumulations if indeed it does skirt along the coast and nudge inland..its 50/50...
Bristol could have an occasional snow shower not much more.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY
So, heres the biggy. Its very different depending on if you're in Jannerland or not...
Plymouth will have heavy snow showers and as Thursday evening progresses it will turn to full on frontal snow. It will turn to rain at some point (i mean, it is Plymouth afterall)...I think it will change first thing friday morning after you've had a few inches from the full on frontal snow. Bit rude.
For my neck of the woods in Portishead its a similar theme but its not set to turn to rain until midday Friday, if all at. Current accumulations set to be around 8 to 10 inches. If that happens I will be making a 10 foot snowman with my son, sticking a scottish hat on it and rugby tackling it as hard as humanly possible to help me get over yesterdays game.

Edited February 25, 2018 by Paul T

[knocker]

I sent a similar message to my Facebook contacts in this area about an hour ago although I missed the freezing rain scenario

EDIT

Not the above but the Fergie tweet

Edited February 25, 2018 by knocker

[matt111]

Not as low last night, only got down to -0.7°C. Sunny again today but the biting winds gone up a notch. Currently 2.8°C with a DP of -5°C. 

[Summer Sun]

 

[EllyTech]

Just now, Summer Sun said:

 

That bright purple blob is right over my house!

[Frosty hollows]

My weather app has snow Tuesday, wednesday, Thursday and lots of the stuff Friday. Temps start to rise slowly Saturday, but still very cold(ie it actually goes above freezing!) Nothing like the double figures some are talking about so could be a very slow thaw if it comes off. Much as I enjoy the snow, Thursday afternoon looks pretty serious with those winds. I dread to think what the windchill will be but I'll certainly be wrapping up warm for my late shift at the barn!

[EXETER]

I’m going to be gutted it this doesn’t come off. I’ve got a my Capt Oates gear dig out and ready for the walk to work, the Paul Oakenfold Mount Everest Basecamp mix downloaded for the hour long trudge in and generally looking forward to some eventful weather at last.

 

 

[MidnightSnow]

4 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

 

[Singularity]

1 minute ago, Frosty hollows said:

My weather app has snow Tuesday, wednesday, Thursday and lots of the stuff Friday. Temps start to rise slowly Saturday, but still very cold(ie it actually goes above freezing!) Nothing like the double figures some are talking about so could be a very slow thaw if it comes off. Much as I enjoy the snow, Thursday afternoon looks pretty serious with those winds. I dread to think what the windchill will be but I'll certainly be wrapping up warm for my late shift at the barn!

For what it's worth (more aggressive with LP hence stronger with winds than most models), here's what GFS predicts for the windchill Thursday morning through evening.

  

That would be painful on any exposed skin and frostbite is a genuine threat to anyone insufficiently wrapped up.

[divadee]

7 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

 

The green is a bit close to me for my liking. ? I can really see this as a sleet/rain event for the South coast here. 

[Frosty hollows]

1 minute ago, Singularity said:

For what it's worth (more aggressive with LP hence stronger with winds than most models), here's what GFS predicts for the windchill Thursday morning through evening.

  

That would be painful on any exposed skin and frostbite is a genuine threat to anyone insufficiently wrapped up.

Hat, ear muffs and balaclava at the ready!

[Summer Sun]

1 minute ago, divadee said:

The green is a bit close to me for my liking. ? I can really see this as a sleet/rain event for the South coast here. 

Snow first ie later on Thursday and into Friday then probably turning to rain closer to dawn on Friday for some if the less cold air tracks further north

[jy]

I am using the SE Regional just to see whats on its way,72 hour thread very useful too,in the SE thread Mapantz correctly informed them of the fairly recent red warning snow fail,which sunk the Channel Islands,my point being our region had that warning the night before,but still went very wrong,so Thursday/Friday....in weather terms that's months away lol

[knocker]

deleted

Edited February 25, 2018 by knocker

[Purplepixii]

Oooh I've found Johnholmes' postings in the short range model discussion forum. He's an opinion I really trust on here, gonna stalk him for a bit lol.

[Isleofwightsnowgal74]

41 minutes ago, Singularity said:

Tonight?

Now that is confused! Ha - yes you've got a good chance through to at least Thursday I would say. We'll see with respect to Friday .

Yes lol I actually posted that last night (or thought I had) so it was still waiting to be sent this morn so I posted it then haha oops! Or maybe all this potential snow talk is sending me loopy ??

[knocker]

23 minutes ago, Purplepixii said:

Oooh I've found Johnholmes' postings in the short range model discussion forum. He's an opinion I really trust on here, gonna stalk him for a bit lol.

Well take it easy the old boy's getting on a bit

[eddy88888]

31 minutes ago, divadee said:

The green is a bit close to me for my liking. ? I can really see this as a sleet/rain event for the South coast here. 

Rubbish on that chart we are in the purple blob comfortably, and if the green bit does get closer it could turn readily to snow as it hits land 

[Frosty hollows]

" yellow warnings of snow by Tuesday, especially for central and eastern areas."

BANK!!!!!!!!!

 

 

 

[matt111]

1 minute ago, Frosty hollows said:

" yellow warnings of snow by Tuesday, especially for central and eastern areas."

BANK!!!!!!!!!

 

 

 

I was surprised just now when I got a notification saying the snow warning had been cancelled. Looks like they were just updating it as it’s returned now. 

[knocker]

4 minutes ago, Frosty hollows said:

" yellow warnings of snow by Tuesday, especially for central and eastern areas."

BANK!!!!!!!!!

 

 

 

EPIC!!!!

Edited February 25, 2018 by knocker