South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards

[Bobafet]

???

[Frosty_wsm]

25 minutes ago, MidnightSnow said:

I'm really surprised this thread isn't full of excitement after this mornings output!   (But at the same time I understand the skepticism because of all the past disappointment) 

Yesterday I said it's crazy that we could either see zilch or a foot of snow. Well the chances of the latter have just increased slightly. That's the way I see it anyway.

If it isn't yet it will be after people see Catacol's post in the mod thread. Nothing is ever certain of course but what he says, well that's the stuff dreams are made of for those in the South west wanting severe snowfall.

Of course it's happened before (Feb 78, Dec 81) and no doubt it'll happen again (March 2018 perhaps!) 

[John88B]

The latest from Fergie.

Ian Fergusson

 

@fergieweather

·

15m

 

 

W COUNTRY Yellow warnings for #snow now issued re Tues-Weds by @metoffice. Please keep across forecasts as detail gets honed. We are also watching for potential developments by/into Friday that *may* threaten significant snow for the region, but continued uncertainty at present.

Edited February 24, 2018 by John88B

[offerman]

34 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

any LP running into air that is frigid and has low moisture content is a snow maker...T850's of -1C to -3C are fine in that kind of situation for snow......the key things to look at are thickness values (the amount of atmosphere between two air pressure boundaries), precipitable water content of  said air mass, dew points & wet bulb temps.....based on the charts you've posted the majority of us will be fine and will see plenty of snow........I would post a more detailed response, but to be truthful I've only recently woken up, am still knackered, and I'll be missing valuable drinking time down the pub......here's a link to John Holmes excellent 'Will it snow?' thread in the learners area, it'll answer your questions in greater detail... https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/27989-how-to-try-and-forecast-snow/

 

Cheers Aj really appreciate your reply. 

I guess also evaporative cooling could help too in heavy bursts ..?  Thanks for the link ,will take a look now . 

[Mapantz]

5 minutes ago, offerman said:

 I guess also evaporative cooling could help too in heavy bursts ..?  Thanks for the link ,will take a look now . 

We won't be in marginal conditions. So, we can forget about that. Also, strong winds will make evaporative cooling completely irrelevant. 

No problems this time around! ?

[offerman]

3 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

We won't be in marginal conditions. So, we can forget about that. Also, strong winds will make evaporative cooling completely irrelevant. 

No problems this time around! ?

Thanks Mapantz,from netweather themselves though.  Snow turning to rain.... 

Then we may see a more organised area of snow move up from the south Thursday evening and night, as that low tracks north from Spain to the west of France and bumps into the very cold air. GFS and ECMWF models then diverge over how far north to take the low, ECMWF no further than the English Channel before the low fills, but giving heavy snow to southern counties of England, perhaps blizzard conditions for the SW Moors. While GFS spins the low close to the SW Friday and into the weekend, bringing prolonged snow on Friday and Saturday across England, Wales and southern Scotland, but turning less cold across southern England by the weekend, with snow turning to rain.

 

 

 

[karlos1983]

2 minutes ago, offerman said:

Thanks Mapantz,from netweather themselves though.  Snow turning to rain.... 

Then we may see a more organised area of snow move up from the south Thursday evening and night, as that low tracks north from Spain to the west of France and bumps into the very cold air. GFS and ECMWF models then diverge over how far north to take the low, ECMWF no further than the English Channel before the low fills, but giving heavy snow to southern counties of England, perhaps blizzard conditions for the SW Moors. While GFS spins the low close to the SW Friday and into the weekend, bringing prolonged snow on Friday and Saturday across England, Wales and southern Scotland, but turning less cold across southern England by the weekend, with snow turning to rain.

 

 

 

Last word of the entire sentence ?‍♂️ So foot of snow and then one rain drop at the end

BANK 

 

Edited February 24, 2018 by karlos1983

[Jayfromcardiff]

Hopefully the week starts off well tomorrow when Cardiff beat Bristol and then followed by tons of snow and blizzards that require snow ploughs to dig us all out. I really think that the GFS is OTT about the low on Friday as I can't see the cold being shifted that easily!

[offerman]

3 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Last word of the entire sentence ?‍♂️ So foot of snow and then one rain drop at the end

BANK 

 

I’m just fussy lol

i want that snow to stick around and not be a mush because of the rain. I’d rather foot of powder then cold continuing after not a rapid thaw.

a nice repeat of 1980s winters would be nice especially 1987 . ??

[jessandjon]

Wooooow please don’t change!!! ❄️❄️❄️

[John88B]

8 minutes ago, offerman said:

Thanks Mapantz,from netweather themselves though.  Snow turning to rain.... 

Then we may see a more organised area of snow move up from the south Thursday evening and night, as that low tracks north from Spain to the west of France and bumps into the very cold air. GFS and ECMWF models then diverge over how far north to take the low, ECMWF no further than the English Channel before the low fills, but giving heavy snow to southern counties of England, perhaps blizzard conditions for the SW Moors. While GFS spins the low close to the SW Friday and into the weekend, bringing prolonged snow on Friday and Saturday across England, Wales and southern Scotland, but turning less cold across southern England by the weekend, with snow turning to rain.

 

 

 

This is a case of high risk for big rewards. The worst case scenario is for an early breakdown of the cold spell, which personally I find highly unlikely.  The best case scenario is for a full on blizzard, akin to Jan 82, dumping a huge amount of snow, followed by the freeze to continue. This I find more likely than an early breakdown. Time will tell.

[AWD]

Out watching my lad play football this morning & my missus is next to me constantly moaning about how cold it is.

She is right, it is feeling very cold stood here on an open playing field.

In the back of my mind however, is how she is going to feel next week when with the added windchill, it will easily feel twice as cold as this.

To add, looking for a difference of a 200 mile track in an iberian LP system a week out is pointless at this range.

There are 12+ EC & UKMO runs, 24 ICON, Arpege & GFS runs between now & then.  You will get good and bad runs re snowfall in that time.

Far too early for detailed analysis yet.

Edited February 24, 2018 by AWD

[matt111]

I wish we could take more notice of the BBC app. It shows lots of snow here for the next 2 weeks. 

[karlos1983]

Agreed AWD pointless worrying about it! I’m going to pretend it’s not even there! That’s rather hard to do however, but I’ll try lol

5c DP -1.7c with wall to wall sunshine 

Edited February 24, 2018 by karlos1983

[Jayfromcardiff]

Just now, karlos1983 said:

Agreed AWD pointless worrying about it! I’m going to pretend it’s not even there! That’s rather hard to do however, but I’ll try lol

Looking forward to the game Sunday? hope you beat Man city, Sane is a puff. Arsenal 2-0 I reckon.

[karlos1983]

4 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

Looking forward to the game Sunday? hope you beat Man city, Sane is a puff. Arsenal 2-0 I reckon.

Hope so Jay, looking forward to the day. Leaving home at 9am with my two brothers, staying in London tomorrow night, feeling sorry for myself in one way or another on Monday. ? 

Edited February 24, 2018 by karlos1983

[EllyTech]

Temp 2C  Humidity 70%  Dewpoint -2C   Pressure 1022.3 

(With numerous interior draughts from the NE) 

[bellanite]

Beautiful sunny day here. Might try and venture out to the sheltered bench in the garden. Can't stand being indoors when the sun is shining.

Currently 4.5oC DP -3.5

Got down to-2.4 last night

[Jayfromcardiff]

4 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Hope so Jay, looking forward to the day. Leaving home at 9am with my two brothers, staying in London tomorrow night, feeling sorry for myself in one way or another on Monday. ? 

We're playing Bristol City tomorrow, can't wait to batter them lol. Renewing my season ticket next week, had one for years now.

[Wilxy]

3 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

We're playing Bristol City tomorrow, can't wait to batter them lol. Renewing my season ticket next week, had one for years now.

COME ON YOU REDS!

[Jayfromcardiff]

Just now, tomjwlx said:

COME ON YOU REDS!

Neil Warnock's barmy army!

You going to the game? 

[Wilxy]

1 minute ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

Neil Warnock's barmy army!

You going to the game? 

Wanted to but couldn't get a ticket!

[matt111]

Sunny with clear sky so far today. 5.3°C after an overnight low of -2.1°C. DP -2°C. 

[Jayfromcardiff]

3 minutes ago, tomjwlx said:

Wanted to but couldn't get a ticket!

Not sure why we didn't give you more tickets, stupid really as I'd rather the stadium full!

Should get maybe 25000 tomorrow.

[snowysouth]

The weather will do what it wants to do but wowzers, we could be in the firing line next week! Not going to lie, walking to work in snow at 6am won't be fun. Especially when it freezes. But I still kind of want it lol