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South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards


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Just now, Singularity said:

A few inches and counting, snow turning heavier now.

Extremely concerning that ALL models now agree on between 3 and 6 hours of freezing rain here overnight, some of it heavy. That'll cause some damage I'm sure, while compacting the snow so that I can't record the peak depth which will likely be around midnight (well, I could try if I stay up... am I that mad? Maybe!).

How far inland please?

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Sod the snow, Tom Baker is trying to steal your car. 

I want to see this in the morning.  

Good afternoon all ,with the passing of my beautifull wife last Autumn things have been rather busy at home but now starting to quieten down ,so today i,v been for a great walk up local woods .with th

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Got to say I'm slightly baffled. I live in Plymouth yet all the ppn heading up from the channel just seems to be stalling on the coast? No significant snowfall in the last couple of hours... hoping this will change soon! Glad to hear there are lots of areas around me who are getting a snowfest! ?

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6 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Expand please. Pivoting from where to where?

The general direction of travel..the low was always forecast to move northwest. It has hung around  a bit longer and a tad further east on 12z gfs. But as it begins to pivot and move northwest the rainbands in the eastern channel are looking as though they are doing the same.

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2 minutes ago, TallPaul said:

Got to say I'm slightly baffled. I live in Plymouth yet all the ppn heading up from the channel just seems to be stalling on the coast? No significant snowfall in the last couple of hours... hoping this will change soon! Glad to hear there are lots of areas around me who are getting a snowfest! ?

Nick Sussex said this morning it may stall on the coastline maybe he was right.

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Just now, EllyTech said:

How far inland please?

Most optimistic (least extensive) is HIRLAM:

hirlamuk-42-13-0.png?01-16

GFS showing mostly just rain where it's not snow but that seems hard to believe given surface temps:

15-574.GIF?01-12 15-778.GIF?01-12

ICON the most extensive:

iconeu_uk1-42-17-0.png?01-15

 

I really hope the movement aloft of above-zero 850s is being carried out too efficiently i.e. that in reality it will cool/mix out more quickly.

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2 minutes ago, john w said:

The general direction of travel..the low was always forecast to move northwest. It has hung around  a bit longer and a tad further east on 12z gfs. But as it begins to pivot and move northwest the rainbands in the eastern channel are looking as though they are doing the same.

I think the precipitation/energy stalls somewhat within the low. It can pivot but you might see the heavy precip move more slowly. The general direction of travel of that low being NW.

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8 minutes ago, kent said:

According to the radar you should be under it by now with a lot more to come.

The radar is deceiving - I am not getting anything. There is literally no snow falling right now and when it does it so light. Literaly at the point where I feel like crying. 

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Just went for a wonder outside would say it's there is around 5cm of snow out there at the moment with drifts even higher and looking at radar looks like more (Could me more than 5cm not sure)

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Just now, Steve Caiels said:

Surface air temp rising rapidly in the last hour :angry: If that carries on at that rate, it'll be above freezing well before midnight.

image.thumb.png.0c4050e5122e4a0d47a0a5f7fd88eaf5.png

 

Am I right in saying this will mean bigger snowflakes, but more risk of turning to rain on the coasts?

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Heavy snow all afternoon in St Keverne (on the Lizard).  No sign of it turning to rain here as yet.  Drifting through all the gates onto the roads - not sure how the drive home will be!

20180301_172317[1].jpg

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4 minutes ago, Singularity said:

Most optimistic (least extensive) is HIRLAM:

hirlamuk-42-13-0.png?01-16

GFS showing mostly just rain where it's not snow but that seems hard to believe given surface temps:

15-574.GIF?01-12 15-778.GIF?01-12

ICON the most extensive:

iconeu_uk1-42-17-0.png?01-15

 

I really hope the movement aloft of above-zero 850s is being carried out too efficiently i.e. that in reality it will cool/mix out more quickly.

I think judging from the models, this is another nowcasting situation.

I good indicator for anyone concerned would be the constancy of your snowfall. If you start to see larger 'fatter' flakes, basically wet snow, its a sign the 850s are increasing at the cloud base.

I believe right now, most if not all are still seeing powder type dry snow, so no issues currently.

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9 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Currently on Wessex way - gridlocked! Near blizzard conditions! 

I work at Whiteley (M27 J9) and after seeing the radar mid-morning, I made my mind up to come home at lunchtime.

I am so glad I did, as the entire M27, A31 and A338 are at a standstill. According to TomTom I would have faced a 5 hour journey home had I left at my normal 4pm....

Snow now as heavy as it's been all day. Probably about 10cm now, though hard to tell as it's all blowing around. Temp been stuck at -3.1 for hours though starting to creep up a smidge now -2.9.

Wondering what awaits me when I wake up in the morning. Still snowing? Freezing rain? Perhaps slightly milder and a slight thaw? Who knows!

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Just now, Steve Caiels said:

Surface air temp rising rapidly in the last hour :angry: If that carries on at that rate, it'll be above freezing well before midnight.

image.thumb.png.0c4050e5122e4a0d47a0a5f7fd88eaf5.png

Where are u located Steve?

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