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South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards

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Morning, just had a quick look on here at the forecast for next week, 'feels like' temps, taking into account wind chill factor, are down to -17 for next Thursday morning! I always save bonfire lighting for a chilly day, I've currently got an enormous one stocked up and ready to go at work, reckon Thursday will warrant getting the matches out.

It may be cold and frosty this morning, but it's as nothing when compared to what's coming ;-)

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1 minute ago, warmintim said:

Yep - -5.9 c at 6.30 this morning... Coldest for a while (this winter definitely). Suggested to the wife that next week could rival the -15 of Dec 2010 if we get snow cover and clear skies...

We got -17.7 in Jan 2010. I never want to see it as low again. If we had this set up earlier in winter I reckon we might have seen temps to rival, but as the sun is warming I'm hoping we won't get down that far. 

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I don't want to be seen as a party pooper, but, the latest METEO forecast for next week has snow for the South West starting on Tuesday, more general snow on Wednesday and Thursday then rain from then on. If this is going to happen, then with the really cold air arriving on Sunday night and going on Friday, hardly worth the term the "Beast from the East", more like a short cold snap. I hope that METEO are wrong for the sake of all those that have hyped this weather "event" as something extra special.

Edited by OldBloke

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2 minutes ago, OldBloke said:

I don't want to be seen as a party pooper, but, the latest METEO forecast for next week has snow for the South West starting on Tuesday, more general snow on Wednesday and Thursday then rain from then on. If this is going to happen, then with the really cold air arriving on Sunday night and going on Friday, hardly worth the term the "Beast from the East", more like a short cold snap. I hope that METEO are wrong.

2 and half days of general snow I'll take that! I don't really rate METEO at all though. Looking at the UKMO they have ice days for my locale tues - thurs with no snow so there is divergence on the forecast already

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7 minutes ago, OldBloke said:

I don't want to be seen as a party pooper, but, the latest METEO forecast for next week has snow for the South West starting on Tuesday, more general snow on Wednesday and Thursday then rain from then on. If this is going to happen, then with the really cold air arriving on Sunday night and going on Friday, hardly worth the term the "Beast from the East", more like a short cold snap. I hope that METEO are wrong for the sake of all those that have hyped this weather "event" as something extra special.

One only really needs to look at the models to see that it looks highly unlikely to rain anywhere next week! 

OldGrumpyBloke :rofl:

hop aboard sir :hi:

 

Edited by karlos1983

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17 minutes ago, warmintim said:

Yep - -5.9 c at 6.30 this morning... Coldest for a while (this winter definitely). Suggested to the wife that next week could rival the -15 of Dec 2010 if we get snow cover and clear skies...

I guess you'll be on the couch tonight. 😂

Sorry I'll get my (very warm) coat and return to whence I came from 😉

Edited by SP1986

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1 hour ago, offerman said:

Why are there no snow warnings out for West Country ? Only east?  Surely with these charts wind flows and cold depths there must be some snow that would make its way to the west or even bumping from the south-west and turn to snow 

I don’t think so really. We are relying on troughs or disturbances that may form in the flow not getting wrung out before getting this far west, or the low situation pushing up from the south that some models are showing this time next week. Other than that it’ll be largely dry here (here being South Glos). Will probably catch the odd shower/flurry

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7 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

One only really needs to look at the models to see that it looks highly unlikely to rain anywhere next week! 

OldGrumpyBloke :rofl:

hop aboard sir :hi:

 

Hi Karlos, yes grumpy oldbloke. LOL. I do wonder at times, guess it is my age. It is interesting to see the reaction to those models we all hear about. It is a bit like viewing religion, you believe your sect. In view of the fact that there has already been delays to the "Beast from the East" and divergence on the 7 day forecast, why should the METEO be any less accurate than all the others? 

Me? I'll be looking at the 5 day synoptic on Sunday night before I get excited. Living on Dartmoor, if it does snow, I should see more than most, which is what I wish for!

Edited by OldBloke

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1 hour ago, wiltshire weather said:

Buy some of that self-adhesive foam draught excluder strip and stick it around the inside of the frame so that the door squashes it up when it closes and seals the gaps :)

Oh lord that stuff is rubbish and peels off lol.Tried that on the living room door.Not sure if we have any left.Ill check garage. I mentioned the out door tap to hubby and he said it's been fine for the past 10 years so it'll be fine now.

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58 minutes ago, Frosty hollows said:

Rolled up towels at the bottom.  Tape up letter box. If you can, hang a curtain x

Not sure how I could get a curtain up. I remember my parents used to do that now you say that! I feel a trip to YouTube coming on as I don't know how to put one up with no supplies.We have no curtains at the dining room window either.

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Plenty frosty enough this morning. Not had many mornings this winter where it's still well below freezing past 9am.

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4 minutes ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

Oh lord that stuff is rubbish and peels off lol.Tried that on the living room door.Not sure if we have any left.Ill check garage. I mentioned the out door tap to hubby and he said it's been fine for the past 10 years so it'll be fine now.

Adhesives are pretty good these days as long as you clean the surface you are sticking them on first and of course don't use the cheapest one available!

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oh brrrr it's chilly today! Have had to do 2 heat pads for my guinea pig (who will be moving indoors over the weekend). Bird food is ordered. Online shopping order being placed tonight!

 

Randomly, I was planning on going out tomorrow for 3 hours to take part in a Pokemon Go event but I am seriously considering staying home having looked at my weather forecast - a "feels like" of  less than 0 may make it unenjoyable! :rofl:

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Morning all, 00z WRF-NMM 850s out to 120 are looking good still :)

 

tempresult_usi1.gif

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A cracking day here with just a few wisps of Ci and high Cu. Temp 4C and light south easterly

Edited by knocker

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Hi, a question for the more knowledgeable. I understand why more eastern counties would be favoured for snow of course but with very cold air arriving next week would this not become quite unstable travelling over the North Sea creating troughs that could easily reach the West Country? Indeed could these be quite numerous and intensive as time goes by? Perhaps I am looking at a straw to clutch!

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Only down to -0.7°C this morning, and no frost.

Temp: 2.3°C - Hum: 76% - Dew: -1.5°C - Bar: 1020.59hPa - Wind: E ~ ENE @ 9mph.

Edited by Mapantz

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Breakfast Co Co Pops rudely interrupted by a large Robin tapping the window and pointing to his watch...im late on bird table duty,quick learning curve,fat balls certainly attract Great Tits,long tailed and coal tits like sunflower seed and suet,no finches,Niger seed needed perhaps,which leaves Nobby the Nuthatch,who is in a real foul temper,Erc The Turk,my supplier only had a jumbo bag of peanuts which I couldn't afford,so hes playing up and sulking,theres nothing more annoying than a frustrated Nobby.Enjoy the day,the first of endless dry ones it now seems,if the SE gets plastered that's the whole country onside this Winter....with one exception lol

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6 minutes ago, Bobd29 said:

Hi, a question for the more knowledgeable. I understand why more eastern counties would be favoured for snow of course but with very cold air arriving next week would this not become quite unstable travelling over the North Sea creating troughs that could easily reach the West Country? Indeed could these be quite numerous and intensive as time goes by? Perhaps I am looking at a straw to clutch!

The warmer sea track will enhance shower activity across eastern areas as the cold air passes over it, but the reality for over here is that the air is dry and it would take proper features to get anywhere near this far west

It’ll be bone dry here next week *unless* we get small scale features that manage to hold integrity to get this far over, *or* as some models are showing - low pressure systems try to push in from the south, although history and experience might tell us that models can over-cook progression of lows like this under these conditions and thick, cold air, and they often end up hundreds of miles south of here

A break down will come eventually. We need it come from the S or SW into the cold air to give us our best chance of a period of snow. Ideally then it would stall and regress, but that’s the dream ticket

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Met office only giving out light flurries for South and west. Everyone I've told we could get snow are now laughing. Absoluty nothing still showing on apps for South coast. Met office should be fined by every member of the public if we end up getting snow. 

Edited by Rapodo

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1 hour ago, Frosty hollows said:

Rolled up towels at the bottom.  Tape up letter box. If you can, hang a curtain x

Not sure how I could get a curtain up. I remember my parents used to do that now you say that! I feel a trip to YouTube coming on as I don't know how to put one up with no supplies.We have no curtains at the dining room window either.

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55 minutes ago, wiltshire weather said:

Adhesives are pretty good these days as long as you clean the surface you are sticking them on first and of course don't use the cheapest one available!

I did mine before the winter.. doubled up on some already there. The round type excluder not the bristle ones. Worked fine and am hopeless at DIY

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Wow look at that wind chill at +144 on the 6z :cold:

 

144-290UK.GIF?23-6

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As a Bomosapian I am "banking" the 06z. It's about as good as it gets - precipitation at the end of the week gets far enough north and runs along the coast without diluting the uppers etc too much. 

IMG_5015.PNG

Edited by Certain kind of fool

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