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South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards

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1 minute ago, Black Rat said:

Hi Khodds, who's "loads of people" ?? Is that from the MAD thread?

Social media.. twitter plus the MAD thread earlier. Sorry for the wobble but I’ve been here before when it was odds on to happen only for it to go wrong hours before

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5 minutes ago, Woollymummy said:

Radar says Oxford is going to get some just about now, and it is indeed lightly coming down now, not like the big daytime fluffy flurries we had off and on all day today, the kids were very excited, but hopefully thickening up soon. Quite exciting. Not sure whether to go to bed soonish or not....

Don't hopeful the flurries will get heavier. Precip moving slowly towards us. Hope Chilterns behaves and doesn't kill some of it!

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4 minutes ago, khodds said:

Social media.. twitter plus the MAD thread earlier. Sorry for the wobble but I’ve been here before when it was odds on to happen only for it to go wrong hours before

Any eastward shift would surely benefit us within reason? 

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https://www.warehamwx.co.uk/cumulus/

First time i've seen that amber warning, since adding the warning script to my site. I might screenshot that, as it could be another 20 years until the next time. LOL

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I hope it's not just wishful thinking, but it looks like that rain in France is moving in a more northerly direction instead of NE now.  It still need to get pulled back a bit more by that easterly flow though if it is going to pummel Devon.

Or is that not the moisture supply for the 'main event'?

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1 minute ago, Nights King said:

Any eastward shift would surely benefit us within reason? 

I hope so.. you remember France 2013 don’t you. I’m still crying now!! 

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Just now, khodds said:

I hope so.. you remember France 2013 don’t you. I’m still crying now!! 

Stop it... Just stop it now... I'm 8n a good place right now I don't need another wobble now :friends:

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1 minute ago, matt111 said:

Anyone see this earlier? 

That's one of the best looking tornado/funnel cloud videos i've seen from this country.

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3 minutes ago, khodds said:

Social media.. twitter plus the MAD thread earlier. Sorry for the wobble but I’ve been here before when it was odds on to happen only for it to go wrong hours before

Don’t apologise for a wobble I’ve had a shed load of them this week! Only seen a flurry so far and with my hot flushes I want to lie in some snow! Went outside in my nightdress to cool down earlier lol. I’m sure the south west will do well as forecast, hope central southern do too but not as likely. 😊

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Manana Manana Manana. They said Monday night, then Tuesday, then Tuesday night, then Wednesday and now it's Thursday.  Unless you count the bits of white stuff that disappear when it hits the ground.   There is no snow.  It's all a conspiracy! :wallbash:

PS What is MAD?

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2 minutes ago, Nights King said:

Stop it... Just stop it now... I'm 8n a good place right now I don't need another wobble now :friends:

Sorry 😞 I’ll go and have a shot of sloe gin. I feel ok after that 🤣

1 minute ago, slb97 said:

Don’t apologise for a wobble I’ve had a shed load of them this week! Only seen a flurry so far and with my hot flushes I want to lie in some snow! Went outside in my nightdress to cool down earlier lol. I’m sure the south west will do well as forecast, hope central southern do too but not as likely. 😊

You mad thing 😂. Thanks for the reassurance x

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2 minutes ago, john w said:

Some perspective time and I lurk here a lot. . . . . 

 

 

 

Thanks.  That's what I was hoping to hear before turning in for the night.  :)  So the rain in France is hopefully not the source of the Main Event.

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4 minutes ago, john w said:

Some perspective time and I lurk here a lot.

The Aperge and Harlem 18zsssss have NOT pushed this east, they have extended the precipitation eastwards. More East does not mean less west unless your right on the tip of cornwall.

Shower activity in France will be a great deal convective as well as frontal. Looking at the radar I cant see the low is much further East if at all, than forecast. More of its boundary airmass may be being disrupted, but that doesnt mean the track will change.

The only fly in the ointment I can see is the 18z GFS brings warmer air slightly further north, but even that away from the very south coast means any of Fridays evening secondary feature coming up may be marginal.

The geographical coverage of snow looks to be broader, but the sweet spots I would say are still where the Met think they should be. (I also think they would have been extremely careful to have amended the warnings and forecasts for the 10:30pm regionals and they would have had Harlem and Aperge at their disposal. 

The SW still looks poised for a great event...just more in the East (and I would include myself in the latter) look like also JOINING in on the fun, not taking it.

 

 

Thanks John. A level headed voice - just what I needed 😊

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2 minutes ago, cazbym said:

Manana Manana Manana. They said Monday night, then Tuesday, then Tuesday night, then Wednesday and now it's Thursday.  Unless you count the bits of white stuff that disappear when it hits the ground.   There is no snow.  It's all a conspiracy! :wallbash:

PS What is MAD?

MAD is the thread where go to get chewed up and spat out :D

It's another thread on NW that discusses forecast models etc.... If you venture in - Good Luck :-)

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10 minutes ago, matt111 said:

Anyone see this earlier? 

 

bloody hell, I saw my old house in that video up Briseham Road!........Brixham born & Bred!.......quality find Matt, I'll give my sis a ring in the morning, see if she saw it

Edited by ajpoolshark

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I'm glad I'm not alone being the only one to have a wobble tonight. Tried staying away from the forums tonight incase it all goes wrong. I couldn't hold off so here I am having my wobble lol

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2 minutes ago, khodds said:

Thanks John. A level headed voice - just what I needed 😊

Second that, lovely post. Night everyone sweet snowy dreams to you all ☃️❄️☃️

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I need to go to bed but I’m so excited I won’t be able to sleep

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