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South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards


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Sod the snow, Tom Baker is trying to steal your car. 

I want to see this in the morning.  

Good afternoon all ,with the passing of my beautifull wife last Autumn things have been rather busy at home but now starting to quieten down ,so today i,v been for a great walk up local woods .with th

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I guess the BBC/MetO aren't too concerned with the ARPEGE and HIRLAM showing heavy precip moving further east given the 2-5cm on the graphic. Either way a great forecast and looks like some people will be very happy come Friday morning. It's interesting to note the discrepancies though:

 

 

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2 minutes ago, AWD said:

Skipped tonights forecast to concentrate on Tomorrow nights events.

Whats your take on it AWD?

Will it veer more in our direction as low approaches later?

After all got to give that 40cm a head start :rofl:

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Just got the One Show on, haven't changed the channel yet, and they are doing a chat about the snow etc.

Some guy is talking about the SW event, and he is saying 10cm - 20cm widely, with some good graphics to support this.  Interestingly though, he had another band of moderate snow right over the West Country on Friday afternoon.

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23 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Never seen a turn around that late before!!

Been so busy catching up with this thread and tomorrow's snowfall I haven't looked at the 12zs yet....off to see what's EC has served up for Wednesdays supper ;) 

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40 minutes ago, BM4PM said:

Somebody correct me if im wrong. With +0 850s the snow will melt at that level and turn to rain but as the surface cold is still there it will freeze as it hits the surface. So freezing rain rather than snow. Lovely! 

Something like that ... I get the impression that the snow might survive a short journey just above 0C (as it would do at surface level when it is 1C/2C) but in general, yes, it would melt and refreeze lower down.

The ECM still has a very large area of freezing rain for a few hours over East Devon and Dorset, right in the middle of the night. So what happens? Freezing rain falls in the night, turns a 100 mile area into an ice-rink, then turns back to snow, when morning comes you wake up to a blanket of snow and sheet ice under it!! 

I really don't know if I think this is brilliant or horrendous, but if it happens here no way I'll be venturing out in that.

I'm also wondering if the Met Office symbols and other models of EURO4 have no way of indicating freezing rain so they all appear to process it as snow.

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2 minutes ago, Nights King said:

Whats your take on it AWD?

Will it veer more in our direction as low approaches later?

After all got to give that 40cm a head start :rofl:

Probably start to disintegrate has most of the showers have done overland, might reach us as a flurry if we are lucky.

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7 minutes ago, CheesepuffScott said:

Just looked out the window and it seems to be some light flurries. Here's netweather radar. Interesting.

227f4da747de8e6cbbf53ed252b0d800.png

Few high res models modelled this, probably as a result of moisture advection for the Storm Emma.

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My personal target by Friday afternoon is 10cm.  If I can reach this figure, I will be more than happy.

Anything less than 5cm and I will be hurt and disappointed.

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