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South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards

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4 minutes ago, EllyTech said:

So this low has nothing to do with a boundary with the cold ? ... 

you're confusing lapse rates with T850 temperatures....lapse rates again is the temperature difference between two pressure boudaries in a given locale......I think you're thinking about the large change in temperature at the 850hpa (T850) boundary layers between southern england and say the midlands tomorrow/friday...This is known as a thermal gradient at the 850 hpa boundary between two different locations, not lapse rates in one given location....hope this helps :)

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17 minutes ago, Bazray said:

Bob on westcountry news said potential for heavy blizzards in the strong winds. Showed the whole of the west under heavy snow. Hope your wrong AJ.

it's not my forecast Basray, simply what one particular hi-res model is showing, it couldbe barking completely up the wrong tree, I hope it is!....we'll find out soon enough :)

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Light snow just started in Filton

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1 minute ago, ajpoolshark said:

you're confusing lapse rates with T850 temperatures....lapse rates again is the temperature difference between two pressure boudaries in a given locale......I think you're thinking about the large change in temperature at the 850hpa (T850) boundary layers between southern england and say the midlands tomorrow/friday...This is known as a thermal gradient at the 850 hpa boundary between two different locations, not lapse rates in one given location....hope this helps :)

Sort of, but I assumed that talking about temperature gradients was a feature of the lapse rates at the boundary, whether in motion or not. Never mind. Lets just watch this snow come in and see the clash of the two systems dump an as yet, unfathomed load on the West Country. 

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-0.4C DP-9, Snow flurry 

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23 minutes ago, offerman said:

Bllx so all the snow has moved away down to the southwest on the forecast ? 

None for bath northeast Somerset until

friday?  Is that what you meant 

amazing how it changes so quickly 

earlier forecast this morning said loads snow tomorrow disruptive amounts 

Not at all, very little has changed to my mind. It could of course but hasn't as yet.

Edited by That ECM

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17 minutes ago, offerman said:

Serious question 

why does the M4 line have such a prolific affect on our weather? There’s no high ground there but so

often it’s mentioned on here and local /national forecasts line of m4 northward worst of weather. 

Here it's not the M4 but the M40 which affects our weather as it cuts right through the chilterns

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Traffic carnage at Hollacombe on way to Wembury and in the village.  Has taken couple of hours for son to get through and has parked safely out of the way as can’t negotiate the final hill home.  Walking the last bit.  

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  1. Lapse rate | meteorology | Britannica.com

    https://www.britannica.com/science/lapse-rate

    Lapse rate, rate of change in temperature observed while moving upward through the Earth’s atmosphere. The lapse rate is considered positive when the temperature decreases with elevation, zero when the temperature is constant with elevation, and negative when the temperature increases with elevation (temperature inversion).

     

    How else do we get convection?

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Guys and gals - I need cheering up.  A few flakes in the air and bright sunshine is all I’ve had near Padstow 😥.  Hoping tomorrow might fare a bit better.  Have had to come on here and view your snow pics instead!

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26 minutes ago, Mr Bartlettazores said:

Haha indeed! I’m not too bothered as live in Winchester and there has been a few cms of snow there yesterday but it does seem that a snowshield has set up everywhere else in South Hampshire! The snow literally starts and finishes as you enter / leave Winchester off the M3! :yahoo:

Where are you in Winchester?

 

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Local forcast for isle of Wight has given rain tomorrow, and I'm not the slightest bit surprised. Snow (if you can call it that) has been a huge letdown here.

Hurry up summer, done with another year of disappointments 😥

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Sunshine with snow flurries now! Nice last 2 hrs in Headington. Few cms in places.

77139147-6C8F-44DA-998C-4089E358AF42.jpeg

69148F73-A24A-45C9-A17E-47C98BD285E2.jpeg

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10 minutes ago, Erbyskerby said:

Guys and gals - I need cheering up.  A few flakes in the air and bright sunshine is all I’ve had near Padstow 😥.  Hoping tomorrow might fare a bit better.  Have had to come on here and view your snow pics instead!

Wishing you a good dumping tomorrow :D

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8 minutes ago, island lad said:

Local forcast for isle of Wight has given rain tomorrow, and I'm not the slightest bit surprised. Snow (if you can call it that) has been a huge letdown here.

Hurry up summer, done with another year of disappointments 😥

They need to close the local forecaster down... never right. It’s been very hit and miss on the IOW.. Tommorows snow fall will cheer you up pal 

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14 minutes ago, EllyTech said:
  1. Lapse rate | meteorology | Britannica.com

    https://www.britannica.com/science/lapse-rate

    Lapse rate, rate of change in temperature observed while moving upward through the Earth’s atmosphere. The lapse rate is considered positive when the temperature decreases with elevation, zero when the temperature is constant with elevation, and negative when the temperature increases with elevation (temperature inversion).

     

    How else do we get convection?

EllyTech, you're interpretation of lapse rates is wrong.....the above definition is correct, yours isn't.......that is why convection is generally limited in frontal systems, the lapse rates are low.....have a look in the learning area of NW.......you're confusing lapse rates with the differences of T850 temperatures between different locations!......in this coming 'event'.....there will be a large difference in T850 temps between say the south coast and the midlands, but this will not aid convection as it has nothing to do with lapse rates!

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Just now, ajpoolshark said:

EllyTech, you're interpretation of lapse rates is wrong.....the above definition is correct, yours isn't.......that is why convection is generally limited in frontal systems, the lapse rates are low.....have a look in the learning area of NW.......you're confusing lapse rates with the differences of T850 temperatures between different locations!......in this coming 'event'.....there will be a large difference in T850 temps between say the south coast and the midlands, but this will not aid convection as it has nothing to do with lapse rates!

Thanks. :sorry:

 

Next time I think about parcels of air, I'll direct my thoughts to Amazon orders. 

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4 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

EllyTech, you're interpretation of lapse rates is wrong.....the above definition is correct, yours isn't.......that is why convection is generally limited in frontal systems, the lapse rates are low.....have a look in the learning area of NW.......you're confusing lapse rates with the differences of T850 temperatures between different locations!......in this coming 'event'.....there will be a large difference in T850 temps between say the south coast and the midlands, but this will not aid convection as it has nothing to do with lapse rates!

Thermal Gradient = Lateral (Horizontal) difference is temperature (850hPa/Surface Temp) between two areas. 

Lapse Rates = Vertical difference between surface & upper atmosphere. 

Should of quoted Elly, sorry. 

 

Edited by MattTarrant

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8 minutes ago, iowpompeylee said:

They need to close the local forecaster down... never right. It’s been very hit and miss on the IOW.. Tommorows snow fall will cheer you up pal 

IOWPompeyLee - anything falling in Shanklin?  Radar indicates it might be.  Tx

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7 minutes ago, iowpompeylee said:

They need to close the local forecaster down... never right. It’s been very hit and miss on the IOW.. Tommorows snow fall will cheer you up pal 

Hope your right mate. I'll believe it when it's falling out the sky though. Even the missus is getting annoyed and she never gets like that over snow chances.😆

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1 minute ago, MattTarrant said:

Thermal Gradient = Lateral (Horizontal) difference is temperature (850hPa/Surface Temp) between two areas. 

Lapse Rates = Vertical difference between surface & upper atmosphere. 

 

< > ^ yeah, see, easy. :wallbash::ball-santa-emoji::ninja:

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