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South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards

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15 minutes ago, Kreftysoton said:

Just waiting for the met office notification to pop up on my phone moving the warning away from Southampton for thurs and fri. Its only a matter of time, this week has been just horrendous have barely seen a flake all week. Fair play to the SW though my auntie lives in lizard village looks amazing....

Winter over ?

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2 minutes ago, hubba_dubba said:

What about the West side of that line?

a dumping!

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20 minutes ago, Mark Neal. said:

Big 20p flakes again as it turns heavier. 

What's that on the Murr scale? Currently a light shower here...probably 3/10

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3 minutes ago, divadee said:

I don't know where the downgrade rumour has come from, but my met office app has finally updated and its a small upgrade for central Bournemouth. Heavy snow symbols for 10pm tomorrow. And more snow on Friday showing.

Ignore the apps. I would not trust them too much.

going to be a case of watching the radar and keeping an eye on the temp and dewpoint.

Maxed at 0.7c here, but been below zero most of day. Dewpoint very low at -12c - see my site in my signature below.

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Still looks great for Devon and south Wales!

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19 minutes ago, Mr Bartlettazores said:

Here’s what it’s like in Fareham, Hampshire looking south eastward towards Portsmouth Harbour. Mostly clear and a temperature of 0 degrees at 1.45pm but a much colder windchill! 

2603E2B8-330A-40FF-8EBE-0C65FB7F58A7.jpeg

Yep now I can see why the roads and rail have come to a grinding hault, ha ha

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6 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

To be fair, there is some discrepancie with the modelling of tomorrow/friday.....in house NMM hi-res seriously tones down the snow signal tomorrow/friday to such of a degree, that east of a line bristol/exeter sees a dusting if anything at all during said time period.....I'm not trying to dampen things down but talk of 'historic blizzards' is a tad premature, a few people are seemingly getting carried away and may up feeling deflated in 48-72 hours time..........soon enough though modelling will be out of the windows as it will become a nowcast/radar watch/sky watch scenario :)

Yes, various models having a wide range of solutions for how the precipitation behaves. Dusting/Blizzard/Freezing rain/Normal rain for the same location depending on the model.  Looking out of the window and watching for changes to the MetO weather warnings is the way forward for Thu/Fri, not even sure looking at the radar would help much.

 

6 minutes ago, divadee said:

I don't know where the downgrade rumour has come from, but my met office app has finally updated and its a small upgrade for central Bournemouth. Heavy snow symbols for 10pm tomorrow. And more snow on Friday showing.

 

I think mid morning that weather warnings were removed as location forecasts were updated before then being reinstated, certainly happened on the web site.  

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Bob on westcountry news said potential for heavy blizzards in the strong winds. Showed the whole of the west under heavy snow. Hope your wrong AJ.

Edited by Bazray

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48 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Yep got the idea, your not impressed. Might want to have another look tho. Snow tomorrow with more to the sw, then a few hours of snow on Friday with no rain on the graphics bar the far sw. Crap is sw breeze and rain. any forecast with snow is good unless you prefer mild. 

Bllx so all the snow has moved away down to the southwest on the forecast ? 

None for bath northeast Somerset until

friday?  Is that what you meant 

amazing how it changes so quickly 

earlier forecast this morning said loads snow tomorrow disruptive amounts 

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Truro College had to shut this morning due to snow. Still showers blowing in off the channel but they have eased a little.

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1 minute ago, Tonyinhampshire said:

Yep now I can see why the roads and rail have come to a grinding hault, ha ha

Haha indeed! I’m not too bothered as live in Winchester and there has been a few cms of snow there yesterday but it does seem that a snowshield has set up everywhere else in South Hampshire! The snow literally starts and finishes as you enter / leave Winchester off the M3! :yahoo:

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16 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

To be fair, there is some discrepancie with the modelling of tomorrow/friday.....in house NMM hi-res seriously tones down the snow signal tomorrow/friday to such of a degree, that east of a line bristol/exeter sees a dusting if anything at all during said time period.....I'm not trying to dampen things down but talk of 'historic blizzards' is a tad premature, a few people are seemingly getting carried away and may up feeling deflated in 48-72 hours time..........soon enough though modelling will be out of the windows as it will become a nowcast/radar watch/sky watch scenario :)

Thanks Aj

is better to be realistic 

thanks for the update . 

 

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27 minutes ago, khodds said:

I’m Going to be to far south for this to hit I think 😞. 

3C2E8431-ABAB-4FC5-9A01-F7D20D437F15.png

You’re not missing much. I’m right under it and it’s just a few flakes in the breeze

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9 minutes ago, Tonyinhampshire said:

Winter over ?

Yes, in just under 10 hours i believe :D  Would be about right for Exeter, no snow all winter and a dumping on the first day of spring (assuming it's not rain which would be even more typical for Exeter :nonono:)

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Serious question 

why does the M4 line have such a prolific affect on our weather? There’s no high ground there but so

often it’s mentioned on here and local /national forecasts line of m4 northward worst of weather. 

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15 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

lapse rates?....are you referring to 850-500hpa lapse rates?....if so then yes, you've misunderstood what they are.....the lapse rates are the difference in temperature between two pressure boundaries and are often used as one of the parameters used to gauge atmospheric instability.....In the case of frontal zones, lapse rates drop as the atmospheric profiles become saturated with moisture lowering instability....You'll find that lapse rates increase in the passing of a cold front as there are larger temperature differentials through the lower and mid profiles

So this low has nothing to do with a boundary with the cold ? ... 

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Just now, offerman said:

Serious question 

why does the M4 line have such a prolific affect on our weather? There’s no high ground there but so

often it’s mentioned on here and local /national forecasts line of m4 northward worst of weather. 

It is odd isn't it and it seems to apply regardless of wind direction or weather type.

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1 minute ago, EllyTech said:

So this low has nothing to do with a boundary with the cold ? ... 

You are a little confused i think bud......

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So Sandhurst in Berkshire outside the amber zone - East is showing more snow than Basingstoke West for the majority of the day tomorrow - looking at the models there is quite a big band of snow hitting tomorrow 1 that hits early and goes West North West and then another that seems to go NE.

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Screen Shot 2018-02-28 at 14.14.07.png

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Screen Shot 2018-02-28 at 14.13.59.png

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Just now, Mark Parsons said:

You are a little confused i think bud......

<doesn't take much these days. I know a bit but still need to brush up on the rest of the puzzle pieces. Really assumed that the gradient in temperatures between the coming low and the entrenched cold, given that it will create instability, is associated with the lapse rates .. I'll get the rookies book back out if its wrong.

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Bournemouth is the only place in England I can find reporting a round +1c. Heatwave under the sunny skies!!!

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5 minutes ago, offerman said:

Serious question 

why does the M4 line have such a prolific affect on our weather? There’s no high ground there but so

often it’s mentioned on here and local /national forecasts line of m4 northward worst of weather. 


It acts like as a fire break for snow most of the time....:rofl:

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