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DiagonalRedLine

South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards

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I haven't caught up with the 6 overnight pages yet, but here is a quick update from South West Devon.  As you will see on the radar, we JUST missed that significant snow in the channel.  The remnants are blowing around, but nothing to add to last nights cover. The channel looks quiet now :(

An overnight low of -4.3, quite probably a fairly long term record I would think.  Now -3.6 with a DP of -5.8.  Home office was a chilly 12c first thing!

 

 

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0z Arpege for Thursday evenings rush hour;

DXHA_QZX4AAvjpx.thumb.jpeg.93ccf0119c18f8b05309e1a12689b273.jpeg

That's going to cause a lot of problems for commuters if that verifies.  Widespread heavy snowfall in strong winds.

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2 hours ago, That ECM said:

Something along the lines of "like the gfs more than the ukmo as Poole seems to get 10 mins more snow than me" add 38 screenshots proving the point. 

 

Joking apart, it's looking good to see some snow and if I were in somewhere around Taunton for eg, I would be very excited. Tomorrow could be a very interesting day. 

??‍♂️??‍♂️??‍♂️ !!!

Yes even through all these chops and changes the models seem to have consistently given around here the highest totals... As I said last night I’m excited but concerned for trying to get home from work :laugh:

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Still nice and wintry here this morning. Had to do battle with the seagulls whilst helping feed the little birds!

 

IMG_20180228_081730.jpg

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3 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Snowing again! My 2nd EVENT:D of the morning.

What intensity ???

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Nice summary Gibby. 

I have been trying to look at the t0 low on the 00z suites and compare it to the 12z suits from yesterday e.g. t+12.

The GFS had a 978 low just about over the Azores at t+12 which is almost identical in form on the 12z.

The ECM and UKMET does not offer a 12 hour timestamp on the sites i use AFAIK so cannot compare.

Aperge is a tad southeast of where it thought the 980 low over Azores would be. Interestingly the disruption to the low on the ICON looks to be flattening it someway South when compared to the has.

ICON almost mirrors the GFS and is close to developing a secondary feature east of the low. 

So the low in my view is going as expected. The next 12 hours will be key as to when it begins to turn and head north then (and it isn't often you say this) northwest. 

I wouldn't want to call it but I can see the disruption against the cold air flattening the low a bit more and therefore extending the coverage of the showers slightly further wast. But I think the met have this pretty well thought our now. Draw a line from bournemouth to Dublin and i think your in for a memorable event. My area...be hit and miss. 50 miles further east we will get a pasting too. Present track...a small covering (5cm)...much further west...probably similar to last night's.

I'm too drained to look at the secondary feature. 

 

 

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Yaaaay

upgrade  as this weather forecast just said 10 cm or more  tomorrow 

 

 

9AAC241D-44C6-45FB-9FBF-99F9D39D111E.png

2539E2EB-FE66-47DD-B7D1-DFD312272A5D.png

06FF716A-34BC-4F32-A5B2-881B03E902B8.png

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 Also I note that there are a couple of snow streamers for later today coming into North East Somerset from the east I’m not sure if those will verify but that’s what they were showing on the forecast as well 

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Snow on the ground here, a nice dusting since 0800 and still going.

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Had a brief snow flurry a few minutes ago. 

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12 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

North Devon and Cardiff 33cm tomorrow and possible Bristol and surrounding areas.

Where are they saying that? .... hope that's true!

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25 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

What intensity ???

About 5 flakes a minute.:D

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23 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

North Devon and Cardiff 33cm tomorrow and possible Bristol and surrounding areas.

Hi Jay 

Well I’m in the surrounding area to Bristol 

can you show where they said 33cm please.

 

cheers 

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Snowing again now. Not heavy but already the ground is noticeably more white than it was.  

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4 minutes ago, offerman said:

Hi Jay 

Well I’m in the surrounding area to Bristol 

can you show where they said 33cm please.

 

cheers 

Derek brockways Twitter.

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We just caught the very northern edge of the Channel stuff.  If this is what the edge can do in 20 minutes, imagine what it could be like if it *does* come inland!

image.thumb.png.e22c1498bbd8658a4a4d480b4d9d6b54.png

 

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Been snowing intermittently on the IOW this morning with a light dusting nothing too much though.

Enough for my 7 year old to get super excited over.  So can’t wait until tomorrow for the main event!!❄️❄️☃️⛄️❄️❄️

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53 minutes ago, Steve Caiels said:

I haven't caught up with the 6 overnight pages yet, but here is a quick update from South West Devon.  As you will see on the radar, we JUST missed that significant snow in the channel.  The remnants are blowing around, but nothing to add to last nights cover. The channel looks quiet now :(

An overnight low of -4.3, quite probably a fairly long term record I would think.  Now -3.6 with a DP of -5.8.  Home office was a chilly 12c first thing!

 

 

Hello from the NWest - yes that streamer is something - so close for you

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to my relatively untrained and tooth-infectioned eye the 06z GFS looks like a significant upgrade for tomorrow morning for us:

Netweather GFS ImageNetweather GFS Image

 

light precip, but more of it!

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