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South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards


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Sod the snow, Tom Baker is trying to steal your car. 

I want to see this in the morning.  

Good afternoon all ,with the passing of my beautifull wife last Autumn things have been rather busy at home but now starting to quieten down ,so today i,v been for a great walk up local woods .with th

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No sign of any snow melt over night,  still a very wintry  scene out there this morning :) even had a snow flurry while I was in the garden putting the bird feeders out and de-icing the bird bath. 

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1 minute ago, AWD said:

The 0z Arpege is my fave this morning;

IMG_20180228_070259.thumb.png.1043f1ac0f15bec8e7be3c06f0b0e9b0.png

Widely 10cm - 15cm and a lot more over the moors by the end of play Friday.

I think that might be my favourite model as well. At my location it gives me 13 cm roughly which would be really nice form by far the biggest snowfall had since March 2013.

Mind you most models look decent for this area probably the only one that's not quite so go to gfs could it placed everything a little bit further West still good for the southwest but not so good for those in central Southern England where as vecm model that has everything further East and that's better for the whole entire of the South really.

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3 minutes ago, AWD said:

The 0z Arpege is my fave this morning;

IMG_20180228_070259.thumb.png.1043f1ac0f15bec8e7be3c06f0b0e9b0.png

Widely 10cm - 15cm and a lot more over the moors by the end of play Friday.

Nope don't like It! That shows us as having nothing ?? I may sob into my porridge if it's true for here. 

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0z EURO4 also good and quite widespread, with totals hitting 10cm for inland parts of the West Country;

18030200_2800.thumb.gif.e41f481391da1fabb063c9de0eb028bc.gif

Bear in mind, this model only goes up to midnight Friday so far, some snow is still expected to fall after this time so it "could" end up rather similar to 0z Arpege by end of play Friday.

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If this is correct for today, it's fair to say I'll be doing nothing productive at 11.00  and will be looking out the window. Would be a nice bonus, maybe they are seeing some of the snow in the channel edging north?

IMG_0658.PNG

Edited by That ECM
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2 minutes ago, Kreftysoton said:

How much movement does anyone think i have for a chance of a decentish amount of snow in southampton? Apps are saying two days of and on snow but not heavy. Has the track of the low moved west? Am i likely to be disappointed?

Honestly no one can answer that but if you don't see snow I'll be amazed.

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Not quite sure what the 0z Hirlam has been drinking but it shows this late Thursday into Friday;

hirlamuk-1-37-0.thumb.png.1f1aeab41f53b3c77273ee83ac68e288.png

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Unfortunately, I think that is a little optimistic.

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5 minutes ago, That ECM said:

If this is correct for today, it's fair to say I'll be doing nothing productive at 11.00  and will be looking out the window. Would be a nice bonus, maybe they are seeing some of the snow in the channel edging north?

IMG_0658.PNG

Same here. I will have radar open behind emails. ? Luckily I have a big window as well. 

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5 minutes ago, That ECM said:

If this is correct for today, it's fair to say I'll be doing nothing productive at 11.00  and will be looking out the window. Would be a nice bonus, maybe they are seeing some of the snow in the channel edging north?

IMG_0658.PNG

Got my eye on this, should pep up between iow and us hopefully as well

70040F14-6B7C-47BC-B77E-C364284694A9.thumb.jpeg.e766a55fc7f695fafcc4ba7a51234daa.jpeg

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the dusting we had in Bournemouth yesterday has sublimated overnight.

Still looking like "West is best" for tomorrow/Fri if it's snow you want. Gut feel here is we may just get a covering here in Bournemouth before it turns to rain.

Edited by Uncle_Barty
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17 minutes ago, AWD said:

The 0z Arpege is my fave this morning;

IMG_20180228_070259.thumb.png.1043f1ac0f15bec8e7be3c06f0b0e9b0.png

Widely 10cm - 15cm and a lot more over the moors by the end of play Friday.

I should imagine red warnings going out in parts of the south west and south Wales when you combine those snow totals with the very strong winds. Barring last minute changes, possibly a memorable event unfolding.

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2 minutes ago, John88B said:

I should imagine red warnings going out in parts of the south west and south Wales when you combine those snow totals with the very strong winds. Barring last minute changes, possibly a memorable event unfolding.

I think SE & E Wales might see a red warning if indeed a red warning is issued.  Quite good "broad brush" trend across 0z model output for places like Brecon's, Abergavenny, Cwmbran & up towards west Hereford & Welshpool to be hardest hit.  Obvs mountainous regions at highest risk.

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15 minutes ago, Smartie said:

No sign of any snow melt over night,  still a very wintry  scene out there this morning :) even had a snow flurry while I was in the garden putting the bird feeders out and de-icing the bird bath. 

I don't think snow would ever melt under these conditions, perhaps just dry up/evaporate.

A general question , could we term the showers currently stretched NE to SW in the Bristol Channel as a 'reverse streamer' ?

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32 minutes ago, wormster33 said:

Just edging up into Brighstone area now.  Going white ATM

I’ve got a great vantage point as I’m high up over shanklin. And the snow cloud,be it light. Looks like it could go on for a while! South Wight could do well here! 

Edited by iowpompeylee
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