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South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards


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Sod the snow, Tom Baker is trying to steal your car. 

I want to see this in the morning.  

Good afternoon all ,with the passing of my beautifull wife last Autumn things have been rather busy at home but now starting to quieten down ,so today i,v been for a great walk up local woods .with th

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3 minutes ago, festivalking said:

Sleeping is coming an issue what with all this potential snowy madness!

Yes tell me about it lol, got my 1st annual brain scan tomorrow so that’s playing on my mind a bit, but nowhere near as much as snow lol a word from Ian now would be timely ?

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1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

Yes tell me about it lol, got my 1st annual brain scan tomorrow so that’s playing on my mind a bit, but nowhere near as much as snow lol a word from Ian now would be timely ?

Oh blimey Karlos. Hope all goes well x

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Baffling. I cannot find any output that remotely reflects the forecast on BBC Points West this evening or the Amber zone. Nothing. Most of the output takes it across western wales and Ireland. Patchy stuff at best here. What am I missing? Are the forecasts being heavily modified with human input? It’s not even tonight. It was the same yesterday. 

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1 minute ago, Matty-H said:

Baffling. I cannot find any output that remotely reflects the forecast on BBC Points West this evening or the Amber zone. Nothing. Most of the output takes it across western wales and Ireland. Patchy stuff at best here. What am I missing? Are the forecasts being heavily modified with human input? It’s not even tonight. It was the same yesterday. 

Models obviously onto something or apps wouldn’t show this :)

6252C96E-945C-4F77-B77F-4CD0FC372925.thumb.png.6725dd31af218a4a2400117c51febdc8.png

shame we don’t get to see UKMO ppn charts

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13 minutes ago, Matty-H said:

Baffling. I cannot find any output that remotely reflects the forecast on BBC Points West this evening or the Amber zone. Nothing. Most of the output takes it across western wales and Ireland. Patchy stuff at best here. What am I missing? Are the forecasts being heavily modified with human input? It’s not even tonight. It was the same yesterday. 

??? Not sure where your getting your information from but Snow charts from above posters show huge snowfalls possible over you and most of the SW. In addition BBC TV and Met Office predictions are currently onboard with heavy snow for our area.

Edited by Richard Fisher
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A brief update (to keep Knocker happy):

All are live charts

pression2_eur2.png  lastsnowradar_uk.gif  lastsnowradar_no.gif  anim_ir_color.gif anim_ir.gif 

pression.png  temp_uk.png  temp_eur2.png  pointrosee_eur2.png  windchill_eur2.png

Scandi HP still it situ and now up to 1057 mb. Flow is now just south of east coming out of France and will be across the whole of the Channel within 2 to 3 hours. Channel streamer slowly moving northwards and northern edge is just touching far south of Devon. it has maintained its intensity in the central and western Channel.  Even more snow showers with some heavier ones crossing North Sea. Low temps across UK with sub -6c in our region but also right down to south France. Overall, good signs for the streamer to change orientation and push into south and south-west coast. "Should" be some heavier snow showers by dawn moving inland from south Dorset coast westwards. . 

Further update; Wednesday am.   David 

EDIT: Thursday's detail is still uncertain, I will review it fully tomorrow afternoon.

Edited by Guest
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Ok. So the high res NAE has this for Thursday afternoon.

A couple of other things to note; the 850's are slightly lower on the NAE also and Thurs max temps across SW are a crazy minus 2!

18030118_2718.gif

Edited by Paul T
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32 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Yes tell me about it lol, got my 1st annual brain scan tomorrow so that’s playing on my mind a bit, but nowhere near as much as snow lol a word from Ian now would be timely ?

Good luck Karlos.......1 for your scan and 2 of course for the snow ;-) 

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10 minutes ago, Richard Fisher said:

??? Not sure where your getting your information from but Snow charts from above posters show huge snowfalls possible over you and most of the SW. In addition BBC TV and Met Office predictions are currently onboard with heavy snow for our area.

Much of the raw output. GFS, ECM, ARPEGE, ICON, all of these showing small amounts of snow here (where I am - North Bristol). I can’t link charts, but 18z ARPEGE shows around 6cm here total accumulation. ICON even less. GFS patchy and lighter. 

Check out Fergusson on Twitter, There’s a chart on there recent. He seems to allude as to it being a firming up of events (less). Someone asks him if the warning will now  be scaled back tomorrow. He says depends on midnight runs

Admittedly the last chart of EURO4 looks decent enough

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