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South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards


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Been driving around a few places in Dorset this afternoon and this evening and was most satisfied to see the winner of the most snow cover was... when I got back home in Weymouth. A very decent covering indeed for us down here.

Well, thats me happy for the winter!

Just been monitoring the radar and it’s clear the wind flow is slowing starting to introduce more a Easterly less Northerly element. SE facing coastlines on the south coast soon coming into the firing line as the transition to ESE continues. I would imagine places like Sidmouth,Torquay inland to Exeter and further east even Portland may’ve copped for an inch or so by this time tomorrow. 

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Sod the snow, Tom Baker is trying to steal your car. 

I want to see this in the morning.  

Good afternoon all ,with the passing of my beautifull wife last Autumn things have been rather busy at home but now starting to quieten down ,so today i,v been for a great walk up local woods .with th

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One thing to remember folks - this type of set up may not happen again for years!! Enjoy the moment. A few weeks ago i'd have given a lot just for a few cm's of snow! We now have the prospect of possibly 20cm + !!! 

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4 minutes ago, SizzlingHeat said:

This is what I posted about earlier this evening. Been trawling the high Res models yet none of them, by a significant degree show anything like the TV forecasts are showing. Presuming they know something we dont (aka how the approaching warm front engages with the cold air) then I am very surprised they have stuck their neck out to suggest up to 20cm of snow on Thursday. The current charts show no more than a couple of cms at best in the most prone locations. The wind, if anything could be more disruptive and wind chill severe.

If the models continue to show the extent of the snow Thurs/Fri I would expect a significant downgrade from the met, perhaps even to downgrade the warning from amber to yellow. I would suggest 2-5cm at most having trawled the high Res 12zs this evening. 18z icon very patchy across the south west and none really getting any further than the east of Dorset.

After viewing every model run over last two days, its facsinating to say the least. Intially i ain't expecting much from Thursday its the front heading NE through on Friday i'm interested in. ECM gives 13cm. Gfs 5cm. Icon 4cm. Arpege 7cm. Its a really interesting one, changing run to run. 

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34 minutes ago, Steve Caiels said:

Thanks!  We got some slush that froze and hung around for a few days in 2010.  The last proper snow in Wembury was 1997 I think and that was very short lived.

Well let's hope the next few days work out well for you. Best take some photos if you get any more sprinkles. It could be years before we see it again ❄?❄?

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3 minutes ago, Mark N said:

After viewing every model run over last two days, its facsinating to say the least. Intially i ain't expecting much from Thursday its the front heading NE through on Friday i'm interested in. ECM gives 13cm. Gfs 5cm. Icon 4cm. Arpege 7cm. Its a really interesting one, changing run to run. 

For the past 4 days the MAD thread talk was of nothing other than Thursday low being the breakdown of this cold event. So what happens after this? Still cold do we think, or is it rain thereafter?

Edited by EllyTech
correction of freudian spelling error
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3 minutes ago, EllyTech said:

For the past 4 days the MAD threat talk was of nothing other than Thursday low being the breakdown of this cold event. So what happens after this? Still cold do we think, or is it rain thereafter?

Breakdown through Saturday. Less cold air from the South. Far South and SW less cold through Friday, but think snow will be fine for all, its the precipitation being around which is up for discussion? 

Edited by Mark N
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2 minutes ago, EllyTech said:

For the past 4 days the MAD thread talk was of nothing other than Thursday low being the breakdown of this cold event. So what happens after this? Still cold do we think, or is it rain thereafter?

Cold lingering on until sunday in south currently but snow becoming more marginal. 

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Just now, Fred Sykes said:

One thing to remember folks - this type of set up may not happen again for years!! Enjoy the moment. A few weeks ago i'd have given a lot just for a few cm's of snow! We now have the prospect of possibly 20cm + !!! 

I think people are just optimistically cautious. It would be the mother of all let downs if it goes wrong.

Met Office and BBC forecasts have the snow widespread across the whole region which is the main thing.

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22 minutes ago, wiltshire weather said:

Updated ICON fragments the snow quite a bit. Still snow across the region Thurs but Friday looks like a non-event almost.

However, it does keep the cold going and apart from a brief warm-up early Friday morning, brings back colder 850 uppers (below 0 anyway) until Sunday evening (the end of its run).

tempresult_mer9.gif

that run is horrific for me....cold and dry :bad::bad:......with rain no doubt right at the end of the run......and if anyone gives it 'historic synoptical pattern for cold etc etc etc, I'll give them a slap......#praythisrundoesntverify

Edited by ajpoolshark
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1 minute ago, tomjwlx said:

18z has not much snow at all over wales but more over central southern england.

Phew im glad im in the south west thread then :D:ninja:

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1 minute ago, MidnightSnow said:


Just imagine if it keeps trending east and the bulk of the PPN hits our region instead of Ireland. 20-30cm for everyone.... ah I can dream.

Doesn't that also increase the chance of the cold hanging on? I'm sure I read that somewhere. 

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3 minutes ago, Properjob said:

Hello everyone, I'm a long time lurker on here but just had to share that we've just had our first dusting of snow near Holsworthy. Here's hoping for a lot more ?

Welcome aboard. Its great that you are now a part of this thread, which is now an historic record of the 2018 big freeze. :D:cold:

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3 minutes ago, Nights King said:

Any chance of it tracking east once it hits cold?

Got a feeling there’s a few swings in this yet!! We’re in the game, that’s the main thing!! Tense times!!! ???

perhaps we steal Ireland’s snow this time? Harsh but that’s snow thug life ?

Edited by karlos1983
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