South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards

[festivalking]

2 minutes ago, warmintim said:

We need to remember that the warning is not for snow, its for the disruption. I am pretty certain that most in the region of the warning will see snow on Thurs and Fri, its the amounts, and the wind, etc that will dictate the level of warning involved.

 

1 minute ago, tomjwlx said:

and the added risk of freezing rain!

Yep the specifics will not be defined right up to the start of it and suspect even then it will be a nowcast on how severe it will be. Thats whats great about the weather and events like this no one really knows, no technology in this modern world can work out the weather. They can give it a right good go though, what a job weather forecasters do!!!

[khodds]

I may be wrong here but I think this is what @Bring Back1962-63 Was alluding to earlier; this streamer looks like it’s making its move towards the Devon/Cornwall coast

Edited February 27, 2018 by khodds

[ThundersnowDays]

Need one of the heavy showers to get any real covering today. 

[warmintim]

3 minutes ago, MidnightSnow said:

But the snow is one of the main factors of the disruption? Basically the same thing.

 

I don't really agree - 1 cm of snow will not be disruptive. I think a chart of likelihood to snow would be 'very likely', its the disruptiveness that is the question. It's probably a moot point - a red warning would equate to a snowfest, which I guess most of us want.

[matt111]

Bright sunshine with a temp of -0.6°C. Don’t see that very often here. 

[Catacol]

Nothing here yet. Don't expect anything really until Thursday, and that event is still shrouded in uncertainty. Cant say at the moment that this event has filled me with much joy - though as Knocker says - it has been beautifully bright and clear here today. Clear and crisp anyday over mild and wet!

[EllyTech]

I really don't know why this area is in the waring zone. True, we have had some decent snow showers but some of you outside the zone have had more. Nothing of note settled. 

Awaiting darkness to see if conditions change. 

[EllyTech]

Temp 0C  Humidity 79%  Dewpoint -3C   Pressure 1022.3

[Climate_Eyes]

Can someone kick the radar? Ruddy thing. Pay for it all year and barely use it, works fine, finally need it and it decides to play silly bu**ers.

[lettice]

Had a nice heavy shower in Pompey around 2ish that settled well, then another lighter shower getting the ferry back to gosport around 3pm
Told had same heavy shower in Gosport too.
A light covering still remains in the garden in the shadier parts that is slowly disappearing now.

Still a few flakes now and again blowing in the wind.

[festivalking]

7 minutes ago, khodds said:

I may be wrong here but I think this is what @Bring Back1962-63 Was alluding to earlier; this streamer looks like it’s making its move towards the Devon/Cornwall coast

Yes as the wind swings from the NE/E to a more E/SE that lovely line of snow should pummel southern devon and cornwall!! 

[Beasterly]

Few snow showers on and off but nothing worthy of note. As it stands we have bright sunshine.

[CheesepuffScott]

After the sun came out for a brief moment, it is snowing again..!

Edited February 27, 2018 by CheesepuffScott

[matt111]

Oh look the top of the M3’s done well again today like they did yesterday. Looks like a reasonable covering too. 

Edited February 27, 2018 by matt111

[MidnightSnow]

5 minutes ago, warmintim said:

I don't really agree - 1 cm of snow will not be disruptive. I think a chart of likelihood to snow would be 'very likely', its the disruptiveness that is the question. It's probably a moot point - a red warning would equate to a snowfest, which I guess most of us want.

Hence what I said in my original post. We're both saying the same things in different ways.

The reason were on the high impact is definitely because of the snow. If you take the snow out of the equation, then it would be just low impact moderate wind.

[EllyTech]

3 minutes ago, Climate_Eyes said:

Can someone kick the radar? Ruddy thing. Pay for it all year and barely use it, works fine, finally need it and it decides to play silly bu**ers.

They should ensure a server capable of dealing with peak demand. As customers, when else would we require radar!? Well of course, when there's a weather event that is likely to see all who pay for it, use it. 

<rant off>

[festivalking]

Just now, MidnightSnow said:

Hence what I said in my original post. We're both saying the same things in different ways.

The reason were on the high impact is definitely because of the snow. If you take the snow out of the equation, then it would be just low impact moderate wind.

Don't forget the chance of freezing rain too that would up the impact somewhat  

[jtay]

The Met Man mentions freezing rain, but only for the far SW on Friday. Here's the latest forecast --> https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

[Bristawl Si]

Just watched weather update on Beeb News24. Snow for Thursday - all of south west and south coast as far east as IoW. Looks like it'll hit in morning down south and up to here by middayish.

[Mark Neal.]

11 minutes ago, Beasterly said:

Few snow showers on and off but nothing worthy of note. As it stands we have bright sunshine.

3 miles south of you and we had a decent snow shower buddy. 15 minutes, covering on most surfaces. Big flakes aswell at times. Now back to sunshine and temp just around freezing. 

[wiltshire weather]

Updated ICON snow predictions for Thus-Sat:

[Bristawl Si]

ICON looks patchy.

Meanwhile now - absolutely black clouds approaching from the NE as viewed from back garden.

Edited February 27, 2018 by Bristle boy

[AWD]

Latest Meto forecast for the SW on Thurs - Sat;

After viewing the 0z model output, that really is as good a forecast as we could have hoped for re snowfall.  I'm sure many of us would bank that forecast now.

Anyway, onto the 12z model output.  Let's hope for a step up in confidence and support for the above forecast.  FWIW, I don't have much worry about it turning to rain for the Bristol area, I think that is a low risk outcome for now.  My main concern is the PPN missing us to the west altogether and only getting light flurries of snow.

Also, what a wonderful day it has been today.  Not very often we get a sunshine & proper snow showers day this far west.  Could live with this weather for a while if a significant snowfall wasn't in the pipeline.

[MidnightSnow]

3 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

ICON looks patchy.

Meanwhile now - absolutely black clouds approaching from the NE as viewed from back garden.

Hmmm not liking the ICON at all. 

[warmintim]

Suddenly a quick snow squall and settled snow at the Uni... 10 mins and over but fun!