Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
DiagonalRedLine

South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards

Recommended Posts

Fairly depressing seeing those hefty showers pass to the north of us. They were forecast for our region yesterday morning... but the weather do what it do.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Interesting that this PPN is pepping up out of nowhere on the radar the last half hour or so.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Currently 0.7C, with a minimum of -4.4C overnight.

Slim pickings today*, but we're still on for Thursday.

Best chance for the region before then, looks to be for knocker tomorrow.

image.thumb.png.fdc721944db2390e61c95a3dd5aba20c.png

Oh the irony..

 

Edit - maybe except oop north.

Edited by jtay

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just had a snow shower form right overhead and leave a dusting on everything. Ground is so cold that it's taking at least 10-15 mins to even start melting.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

good little snow shower going on here

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
57 minutes ago, EllyTech said:

Morning Knocker (perhaps I should look at your short range posts before commenting) I have a question. Looking at Vis Sat, what is the explanation for the apparent circulation of cloud over the UK? Is it just the expected isobar layout or is there a low forming over us right now? - such as, a Polar low in situ? :pardon:

Morning Elly well it is apparent but the cloud to the north of is associated with the little wave (low) that has tracked south west from southern Norway and brought more consolidated snow showers to many places whist on route south west of Ireland. Forget about this Polar Low twaddle (not meaning you :)) as the professional met people who apparently started this should have known better

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
22 minutes ago, katemart said:

I've been at work less than an hour and I've already got the radar up in a tab behind a spreadsheet! :D

I have the radar and this forum and keep tabbing between that, spreadsheets and emails. admittedly I'm spending more time on here than anything else.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Standing at Lawrence Hill train station (central east Bristol) waiting for train up to Btl Parkway, SG and itvis snowing here.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Although the HIRLAM fancies a bit again today...

tempresult_trn0.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, kumquat said:

Interesting that this PPN is pepping up out of nowhere on the radar the last half hour or so.

Just looking at that, looking NE towards oxford area and the SE where the ppn has a eastward push to it in the last hour or so, could we be looking at a convergence?? Very slim but you never know

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hi note from fergie an hour ago, plenty of interest Thursday into Friday but lots of complexity: 

W COUNTRY 2/2 Later Thurs into Thurs night/Fri, low pressure from S continues to look threatening in models. Risk of more widespread snow spreading N; moderate-heavy in places, perhaps locally blizzards. Added risk of freezing rain following for some. Detail v complex/uncertain.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
22 minutes ago, Rapodo said:

I'm liking the look of the predicted wind direction in met office app for Thursday n Friday for my location. Poole. Got a good chance at the moment. 

If the streamers in the channel maintain their propensity then I would say tomorrow we could do well as the present wind direction is NE.  However tomorrow the winds are expected to be from ESE to SE.  In general I would love to see a further SE track for Thursdays low to keep us here in with a better shout although the BBC are going for snow from SW at present to affect our region with no marginality on the coast here. Thatll do me for now.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
38 minutes ago, Rapodo said:

If only we can get this system to push east and south a bit more everyone will be in the game then. Not looking forward to a rain to snow event or snow to rain. Everyone's needs to get outside and blow as hard we can lol 

I have a feeling you may well be surprised.  In my experience, these low pressure systems are very hard to predict in terms of where they track, intensity, but based on past experience I would not be surprised if this ends up tracking further east and south meaning more of the SW are affected and remaining on the right side of the snow/rain possibilities.  No technical data to back up my theory only life experience.  I think how the low pressure interacts with the intense cold air is unpredictable and this could well be a now cast situation with met warnings popping up a short notice.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Some screen shots showing the showers building ( I hope I got them in the right order)

A7146254-5DBE-4CFA-8AFB-99F9CA981263.jpeg

432721CD-14C7-4F11-ACDB-424A7188C442.jpeg

E26A2B70-7D23-4F37-BD1E-5BA56EAF7A59.jpeg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

just having my first snow flurry of the cold spell!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I wonder if those showers further east might make it a bit further towards us today with the change in direction since yesterday. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Mike the Fish said:

I have a feeling you may well be surprised.  In my experience, these low pressure systems are very hard to predict in terms of where they track, intensity, but based on past experience I would not be surprised if this ends up tracking further east and south meaning more of the SW are affected and remaining on the right side of the snow/rain possibilities.  No technical data to back up my theory only life experience.  I think how the low pressure interacts with the intense cold air is unpredictable and this could well be a now cast situation with met warnings popping up a short notice.

Well the models this morning look more promising for coastal areas with the less cold air being delayed further. And from what MWB posted not long ago there’s nothing conclusive about what happens thereafter. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

@karlos1983 very true chap i haven't scanned the MAD thread for a couple of days now we seem to be building up a better knowledge base in here now!

So much to play for. The old adage is so true get the cold air in and see what happens and things are happening for the better!!!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

From the mad thread Credit to Man with beard

ECM cluster report: No clusters after just T96 - Not because they are broken, but because they do not have a clue!!!!

I looked at individual ensemble members for D8/D9 on weather.us. Totally random!! In fact, the number of runs with minus 8C uppers or below probably outweigh the milder runs! 

The only pattern is low pressure very close to the UK, with a marked difference in coldness depending on whether the low is centred a few hundred miles west / east / south / north.

Little point, therefore, looking beyond the model mess of the end of this week IMO.

interesting!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, jtay said:

Although the HIRLAM fancies a bit again today...

tempresult_trn0.gif

From what I can see on raintoday.com the ppn is tracking westward along the coast quicker than this. Hopefully that means we have more chance of showers today.

So wonderful this ppn popping up from the sea - usually with a low from the south-west if it arrives that means if blows through more quickly and is followed by the inevitable w*rm-up.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

How annoying, beefy showery going by just to the east of here. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Radar at 20 min intervals! Showers growing 

0C2B1AAE-6C31-4180-9326-894B56772CDA.jpeg

41F7989D-D623-45DE-A842-A97E86612A65.jpeg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Showers maintaining intensity on the front edge and heading straight for Portsmouth and Southampton! COME TO MAMA!

(*Must remember how misleading the radar can be...*)

Edited by katemart

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...