South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards

[jtay]

37 minutes ago, festivalking said:

Evening all. Challenge for you all. How's it all looking in terms of cold and snow in just 3 words. Winner gets a virtual drink. Away you go......

Going to bed.

[khodds]

What’s the general consensus on the 18z.. I’m too tired to interpret the MAD thread tonight ?

[bellanite]

3 minutes ago, khodds said:

Oh no!! That’s not good!! You poor thing ?

Thanks x 

[Jayfromcardiff]

1 minute ago, khodds said:

What’s the general consensus on the 18z.. I’m too tired to interpret the MAD thread tonight ?

Not a clue, everyone just keeps chatting about the SE getting burried etc.

 

[knocker]

The 1800 gfs has a wind chill 0f -18C in the south west Thursday morning

[Mapantz]

Just now, knocker said:

The 1800 gfs has a wind chill 0f -18C in the south west Thursday morning

I used to like looking at the wind chill charts, knocker. However, every cold snap/spell we've had since Autumn, all charts available to the public have greatly exaggerated wind chills. I decided to give up on those. lol

[karlos1983]

3 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

I think i'll tuck the 18Z op run under the carpet, tonight. At face value, I would prefer not to see that solution.

Yes got to agree. It massively over complicates itself as well, looks very odd. 

Does give a good snow event for us however, but not good long term.

[Mapantz]

ps: after being stuck at 1.6°C for the last 15 years, it has now dropped to 1.4°C

[matt111]

1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

Yes got to agree. It massively over complicates itself as well, looks very odd. 

Does give a good snow event for us however, but not good long term.

Wasn't it an outlier earlier when it tried to remove the cold? 

[matt111]

2 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

ps: after being stuck at 1.6°C for the last 15 years, it has now dropped to 1.4°C

Been sat at 0.8°C here for a similar amount of time. 

[knocker]

1 minute ago, Mapantz said:

I used to like looking at the wind chill charts, knocker. However, every cold snap/spell we've had since Autumn, all charts available to the public have greatly exaggerated wind chills. I decided to give up on those. lol

Indeed lets hope the min is exaggerated as well as they are down to -7-8C

[karlos1983]

5 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

Not a clue, everyone just keeps chatting about the SE getting burried etc.

 

Usually the way, but 9 million people live in the south east, hardly surprising. It is a little annoying though for sure 

[bellanite]

15 minutes ago, Rich_Clements said:

GWS 

 

Edit: Drinking at lunchtime never ends well 

I wish I'd had a skin full would have been a bit less painful 

Anyway I can see some obsessive observation watch  over the next few days. Gotta do something. Currently -0.1oC dp -4 brr!

[Jayfromcardiff]

As long as we get a good snow event I'm sure we're not too bothered about 2 weeks down the line. As long as the snow stays around for a few days to enjoy.

[khodds]

I’m off to bed. Absolutely shattered after this weeks fun! Got to work tomorrow morning too.

Ill check in tomorrow morning.. night my snow mad gang. 

[Frosty hollows]

7 minutes ago, knocker said:

The 1800 gfs has a wind chill 0f -18C in the south west Thursday morning

Having experienced-18 in 2010, it's not fun. And we didn't even get a snow day 

[knocker]

Well the 1800 gfs is a total horror show. I'm off

[Frosty hollows]

2 minutes ago, khodds said:

I’m off to bed. Absolutely shattered after this weeks fun! Got to work tomorrow morning too.

Ill check in tomorrow morning.. night my snow mad gang. 

I've work tomorrow too but will have a few non work tabs open 

[khodds]

One last post.. GFS has to be an outlier surely. Think it’s pulled too many all nighters lately; it needs a rest like all of us ?

[Jayfromcardiff]

Watch the GFS be right now lol. Oh well not to worry as I'm sure we'll see a load of snow before hand.

[Mapantz]

I gave up alcohol for 30 months. I have just opened a bottle of elephant beer. 

[Bristawl Si]

10 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Yes got to agree. It massively over complicates itself as well, looks very odd. 

Does give a good snow event for us however, but not good long term.

Take a look at T120 ukmo fax. It shows that feature way south of UK and pretty flat. So tonite's GFS has probably overdone and overblown any LP approach  OR

Is ahead of UKMO.

[alijoe]

well I have been wondering why the news etc have not been on board in warning people over this spell, maybe they have had more of a idea that it would not be as severe as we think it to be?  hope not :-( 

[alijoe]

Sorry ot was underlined, I think I pressed the wrong key. 

[karlos1983]

I have to be honest, if we get some snow showers this week, with ice days and then an all snow event to finish it off, I’d welcome spring with open arms at that point! 

This has been the longest, draining winter of model watching I can remember! We’ve been so close with slidergate and promises that just didn’t quite cut it for our region, I’m exhausted! 

Definitley going to take a step back next year from the Mod thread I think, it’s not healthy!  Just draw my own conclusions. 

Edited February 23, 2018 by karlos1983
Bloody iPhone fat fingers/alcohol typos