South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards

[offerman]

Thanks to everyone for all your posts ,charts , graphics , humour and like minded madness , frustrations will we won’t we oh yes we have , exhuberence, joy and the child within us all . 

Thank you all.

Bring on the storms now like

last summer 

I captured this over Frome 

 

 

[EllyTech]

Thaw definitely underway fast now. Well, its over but wow, what a ride. 

Temp 2C  Humidity 89%  Dewpoint 0C 

[festivalking]

Pouring with rain about 5c and a stiff breeze yes things are back to normal. 

Is it hunt the heat yet?

[Bristawl Si]

Thawing rapidly here. A black slushy mess out on the main road and its side pavements.

Still plenty of snow here in our street and garden but amazing how the 6/7 inches just collapses. The drifts of over a foot are fast diminishing. Amazing how the water content comes out.

A great week in here. Thanks to all for input, photos, banter, etc.

Right the horse racing just started from Lingfield. Fuller thoughts later.

[Frosty_wsm]

1 hour ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

It's a funny thing chasing snow because we get so excited when it arrives but then when it melts it's depressing.

I think if it was early , mid winter I'd be gutted the snow is disappearing but as it's spring I'm not really bothered. Last few days have been awesome, both with the snow and the great atmosphere in this thread but now I'm looking for some nice spring weather although with the jet still running way south of it's usual position it looks like I'll be waiting a while for some spring warmth. 

[Bruegelian]

Hello all and hope you have all enjoyed the snow and nothing unpleasant has happened to any of you, 

There has been quite a lot of snow here, with some immense drifts, some i would say about 8 foot deep. There was some freezing rain which is a slight annoyance, since it kind of detracts from the purity of the event, but 2-3 days before the event the models were going for mostly rain for SW so can't complain. It's good that low levels in SW have had decent snow not just high ground, and cool that the river tone froze in Taunton. 

Anyway today it is melting, but having said that it is snowing now. My weather station temp says 0.8 C, but I'm not sure if its right because the batteries are low. 

 

 

[Wilxy]

Anyone else impressed on how well the Hirlam model has done during this cold spell, its one that sticks out for me?

[wiltshire weather]

15 minutes ago, tomjwlx said:

Anyone else impressed on how well the Hirlam model has done during this cold spell, its one that sticks out for me?

It's certainly been the one I've turned to this week to get a good idea of where the snow was going to be.

[Jayfromcardiff]

VID_20180301_223426531.mp4
VID_20180301_204102341.wmv

[Wiltshireweatherwatcher]

I know it’s a long shot but...

From Met Office 6-30 day outlook:

Over next weekend, there is the potential for a spell of very wet and windy weather in southern and central areas, with the chance of snow. 

I know just covering themselves just in case.

[Nights King]

Mix of sleet and snow now... the end is nye 

[Jayfromcardiff]

9 minutes ago, Nights King said:

Mix of sleet and snow now... the end is nye 

Most of the snow on the grass has gone now and house roofs. 

[festivalking]

15 minutes ago, Nights King said:

Mix of sleet and snow now... the end is nye 

Pretty good going most of us are thawing and raining ?

[Thundery wintry showers]

Thaw well underway in Exeter, roads are mostly clear, still 2-3 inches lying in some areas but we were up at over 6 inches at one point.

[lettice]

Thawed out completely here.
Snow gone, slightly damp in places.

6c here now, 988.6 hPa, been a dry day so far, despite all the forecasts having us down for showers most all day.

But just as I write that, it starts to rain lightly.

Edited March 3, 2018 by lettice

[ThundersnowDays]

Rapid thaw here. Depth in garden down to 4-7cm and there is lots of dripping snow. 

Edited March 3, 2018 by ThundersnowDays

[Chesil View]

Have been going through the crappy process of seeing the snow washed away by steady rain here. Down to about 40% cover and going fast. All gone by tomorrow I suspect. I imagine the greTer depths on higher ground further morth will take considerably longer to clear.

[Blizzardof82]

Raining here 'Boo' 

[matt111]

Rain for most of the afternoon so far. Most of the snows gone now with just a few patches remaining. 

[ThundersnowDays]

Also the pond was completely frozen solid but now there is a little hole where it's turning back to water but most of it is still frozen. 

[Blizzardof82]

A memorable spell of weather over last few days but today I feel robbed by this rain, I guess time of year and weather pattern hasn't helped. This will go down in my eyes as one of the best snow events of my life but not the greatest, for cold that would be 87 but for snow amounts it is still January 82 blizzards, hence my username. Edit turned to sleet now.

[Jason74]

5 hours ago, karlos1983 said:

Carlo Ancolotti please ?

Yep. Not a gooner (although my late Dad was) but feel they need an experienced, safe pair of hands to see them through the next couple of years. 

[Bobafet]

Certainly has been a fun few days thaw has now virtually finished and heavy rain.

It got me to thinking about why we love the snow and how special it can be especially as we rarely see it.  So I thought I would attempt to write a poem - so here goes and see you all next winter!

Why we love the snow!

Whilst sat here looking at the weather charts hoping for some snow.

I have to remind myself that for us down south this is normally a no go.

But this doesn’t stop me looking out the window, continually glancing at the lamp post.

Waiting, wondering will it be our turn next? Normally it’s the northerners that get the most.

Then to my surprise white flakes catch my eye, surely it can’t be what’s that falling from the sky.

Yes we have snow much to my surprise, gradually the snowfall and snowflakes are gaining in size.

My 2 young children cannot contain their excitement, for once it looks like we may be on a winner.  The youngest says Dad can we go out sledging straight after dinner.

Two days of fun prevail and we even had freezing rain and hail.

Everyone seems happy the snow brings the best out of us. People help each other out without even a fuss.

Then the inevitable begins to happen the thaw begins, back to reality, but we do need to pinch ourselves for what we have witnessed. 

Now onto spring, summer, Autumn already counting down the days for next winter, don’t worry it will soon be here in a blinker!

Edited March 3, 2018 by Bobafet

[Pauldjbailey]

Raining quite steadily here now, feels quite mild! It’s created a huge slushy mess that is leaving big pools of water! Here’s two more daft pics from me, one showing me sunbathing in the snow! ??

[Guest]

3 hours ago, Singularity said:

As an aside - watching a small circulation due south of the Solent with some interest, as it's tracking east of any model output that I've seen. It looks like an attempt to try and have that splitting away east of LP to keep us in the cold through Sunday, but the system is small and not evident in the analysis charts so it may not be strong enough circulation-wise to change the broader pattern.

Meanwhile, the ENE flow seems to have obliterated the rain band that was trying to move in here; I've seen barely anything!

Well that was a long break but James has referred to what I mentioned in my post on page 315. I've been keeping an eye on Emma stalling and spawning small breakaway LPs in her circulation. These are mostly to the east and helping to prop up the easterly flow. I know that you have access to more charts than I do with only the free to view services but I assume that you are referring to what the Met O show in their noon fax chart although they show a more southerly flow tomorrow and that small bulge that was showing in the 1548 chart ((5th one below).

        Met O Fax for 1200 Mar 3rd                     Met O Fax for 0600 Mar 4th                                 Live Isobars                                            Live Pressure                                   24 hours to 1548 GMT

              

One can see Emma stalling against the block and splitting with cells moving away both north-west and to the east. That's the micro detail but the Euro charts tell us a better story:

              Live Euro Pressure                                  24 hours to 1500 GMT                  Fronts & Troughs 1200 GMT Mar 3rd          GFS 12z T+6 for 1900 Mar 3rd

          

If I continued with this it would turn into a full MOD post which I might develop in several days time. I am looking for signs of the largely easterly flow being maintained and then further HLB with the Greenland HP building. An Arctic outbreak from the pole into western Russia and that Arctic HP building down behind it and, in due course, allowing a renewed strong build of HP over Scandi. Meanwhile the Siberian HP is also showing signs of rebuilding. Further SSW impacts and renewed HLB and reversed pattern all still showing up strongly. Will the models handle this better this time around? I may be wrong but this is absolutely one to monitor.  David

Edited March 3, 2018 by Guest
Correct typos and check charts