South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards

[ThundersnowDays]

Got that dripping thing here as well. 

[*Stormforce~beka*]

8 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

Why is he not on the sunbed??!

[khodds]

Thaw here now. Good job, I’ve had enough now. Never thought I’d say that! Roll on spring!! Fed up because I think I’ve fractured my wrist.

[Dormouse]

bird count yesterday, not usually see in my patch, 5 redwings digging in gravel drive for bugs, 1 lapwing, and 1 goldcrest.

Thaw really set in now.  Goodbye snow!

has been very entertaining on this very friendly forum.

 

[Argyle1980]

2 minutes ago, khodds said:

Thaw here now. Good job, I’ve had enough now. Never thought I’d say that! Roll on spring!! Fed up because I think I’ve fractured my wrist.

Sorry to hear that, hope your all fixed up again soon.

[festivalking]

Thaw going well here. Fields clear drifts to the edges but country lanes still blocked. The moor us slowly turning into a quagmire. Clean dog of the last week no more!

[Dormouse]

Forgot to say, had a 6 hour power cut last night, got out the candles, lit gas hob to keep warm!

back to the old days.  I know how the kids feel as I really missed my media.!!??

[John Badrick]

2 hours ago, festivalking said:

2.7c and raining. Cold rain my favourite!!!

Hi festiv,

Do you know what the roads a like going into prince town and surrounding area?

Cheers

 

[Argyle1980]

2 minutes ago, Dormouse said:

bird count yesterday, not usually see in my patch, 5 redwings digging in gravel drive for bugs, 1 lapwing, and 1 goldcrest.

Thaw really set in now.  Goodbye snow!

has been very entertaining on this very friendly forum.

 

We’ve had a large number of Redwings pitch down yesterday on the south coast of cornwall. Feeding up before their long flight back North east of us.

[BARRY]

1 hour ago, Super_Uwe said:

Still some of the drifting snow hanging on in Salcombe, but the melt is well underway and I imagine it'll be more or less gone by this time tomorrow.

But what a spell of weather! Absolutely incredible. Some of the surrounding villages between Salcombe, Kingsbridge and Totnes got absolutely buried. Kingsbridge Police closed one of the roads near to Totnes Cross yesterday with 13ft drifts, and there were numerous other places that were cut off. Think it'll probably be another day before things start getting back to normal for them.

The winds yesterday morning were absolutely brutal again, and the coastal road at Torcross has been severely damaged which is devastating for the local community. It wasn't just ice and snow here that's for sure!

Now we need to keep an eye on flooding, already quite a few reports coming in this morning like Frogmore and other vulnerable places.

  Mostly to do with high tide

[festivalking]

6 minutes ago, John Badrick said:

Hi festiv,

Do you know what the roads a like going into prince town and surrounding area?

Cheers

 

Princetown still dicy as is around burrator

[SteveB]

Some pictures while out for a walk this morning. 

This really was some special cold spell we had. Can't complain really 

 

 

Edited March 3, 2018 by SteveB

[webtone]

Morning all

Everybody out on the sloping side of our lane clearing drives,...including me! I would think about a level 10cm of snow where no drifting occurred.

Well a slow thaw is setting in here...Three ice days recorded on station, finally crept above zero about 5am, still no snow melt in rain gauge though!

 

[Man With Beard]

Steady thaw continues here, nothing too dramatic. 

A real good snow event here, just short of the 2010/2013 events in the end so not "historic" for Portsmouth - but very glad to see a proper SW event as they are so elusive.

Hope we don't have to wait another 5 years for another!!

[Catacol]

Thaw in process - wonderful few days. Going to take another walk out - and another tomorrow. By Monday it will all be in patches, and winter is gone I think for this season. A real rollercoaster season with lots of potential, near misses and a big hit to finish. Probably cant ask for much more. I wont post much over the summer - I hide from the heat... but have enjoyed it in here this year having not really been a regional fish in the past - so next year will spend more time in this forum.

One last post in the mod thread to come - a kind of hindcast analysis... but wont be for a few days. I'm not in the mood at the moment - feel pleasantly punch drunk from the last 2 - 3 weeks!

[lettice]

Been dry today, was expecting rain.
The thaw continues, up to 5.5c now.

[Nights King]

52 minutes ago, jethro said:

Morning all, it didn't turn to rain here overnight, it stayed as tiny snow flakes and gave an additional cm or so. Still flakes falling now and again, although there is a slight thaw going on with the snow sliding on the roof, it's still completely intact on the ground.

Yes no real thaw yet up here either jeth except on the roof of house etc

Might see abit more wet snow over next 24 hours on hills but nothing meaningful now.

[Jayfromcardiff]

Still deep snow here but expect it gone tomorrow.

[Andy Bown]

Amused to see a comment or 2 referring to the sun as 'odd yellow thing in the sky'. It's only been Thursday and yesterday without sun, prior to that it was almost full on sun for 6 or 7 days with snow flurries interspersed earlier this week!

[Wilxy]

Its actually a lot warmer than I thought it was going to get today!

4.3C 82% DP 2C

[Guest]

THEY THINK IT'S ALL OVER, IT IS NOW!  OR IS IT?  FINAL ROUND-UP

Good morning everyone, the less cold air has finally managed to find its way down to the surface. The uppers, the middle layers and now the surface cold are being "mixed out". So we won't be seeing anything "mild" for quite some time, merely less cold. The thaw has commenced and flooding will be the next hazard along with burst pipes. Emma and the Beast put up one hell of a battle and gave us a lot of excitement and entertainment. We snow starved south-westerners have finally had our fix following one of the most extraordinary cold spells that will remain in our memories forever. There are always downsides and we need to spare a thought for all those who were adversely impacted by the extreme conditions and I wish them all a speedy return to normality. Very sadly, some lives were lost. Like many of you, I am exhausted by all the frenzied activity and I really need a break for a few days to get my routine business activities and life in general back on track. Before then, let's see what happened last night and this morning with a look at the charts.

  NW radar screenshot 0830 Mar 3rd                Live UK rain/snow radar                      Live France rain/snow radar                        Live standard satellite                           Live infra red satellite       

       

Patchy rain has been pushing into our region. You might remember, that's the wet stuff that isn't super-cooled and doesn't freeze instantly on impact . Although with ground temps still below freezing, some dangerous black ice patches are likely to form in many places. There will also be mist and advection fog as the milder air moves over the snowfields when the wind falls light.There is still a little wet snow and sleet over the tops of the moors and it may still be cold enough for a little wintriness elsewhere in our region during any much heavier periods of precipitation, mostly well away from the south coast. The trend is for the less cold air to spread across all of southern England today. The far south west and the south coast were the first to see the less cold air reach the surface in the small hours. Just look at the second chart below to see how quickly the temps rose from zero or -1 c to + 5 c or higher in just a couple of hours! I took a reading here of - 0.5 c late last night. I was awoken at around 4 am with a hammering on the window. It wasn't ice pellets this time but heavy rain and a gusty wind. The temp was already about 3.5 c by then. By 7 am there was only light rain but the temp was 5.5 c. The snow which had been up to 18 cm deep (with 2 to 3 foot drifts) was being washed away. The powder snow which had been protected by the thick (freezing rain) ice crust was vulnerable as soon as that crust melted. That dry snow had not really compacted (with sublimation) in the usual way. As it contains about one tenth of the moisture compared to our normal wet snow, it contracts and melts remarkably quickly in wet and milder conditions. The good news is that with that small moisture content, the flooding should not be so bad compared to a normal thaw. The depth now (1030) is about 4 cm on the grass but only 2 cm of slush in the road.- so about 70% melted already!

I know that the temps have been slower to rise further inland and some of you had even greater snow depths. Those that didn't get the freezing rain may have seen their snow cover sublimate and compact a little. This would take somewhat longer to thaw. Much depends on how much rain we get and how much the temp recovers. I've just checked my temp again and it has dropped back to 3.5 c!  There are some coastal readings up to 7 c but mostly 2 c of lower inland. This is a sign that it will only become less cold and not mild (except perhaps in Cornwall). There may be slight interruptions to the warming up as all the layers are so mixed out with the dense cold from the north and east mixing more into Emma's circulation with her mild air being tempered. We are still covered by -2 c to - 4c 850s. 

      Live France/UK surface temps         24 hours to 0913 GMT surface temps       Live France/UK Dew Point temps         Live France/UK Wind Chill temps       Arome 0z for 0900 GMT Mar 3rd 850s

        

              Live Euro Pressure                    24 hours to 0830 GMT Euro Pressure            Met O fax for 1200 Mar 2nd         Live France/UK Wind Speed & Direction       24 hours to 0933 GMT Wind 

         

The wind charts show the average wind in real time recorded by weather stations in France and the UK (+ automatic reading from buoys at sea). The red arrows represent the direction of the wind at each station and the white arrows represent the direction of the wind calculated at any point on the chart. The colour represents the average strength of the wind.

Emma and her multiple LP cells have struggled to make much more progress into the block and have almost stalled. The breakaway eastern LP that formed yesterday around northern Italy has deepened slightly and reached the Black Sea. That would normally help to maintain an easterly flow by propping it up which it is doing to some extent. The Scandi HP, however, has continued to decline but is still there but with rather less influence. The strong Greenland HP is also there and the Siberian HP is showing signs of rebuilding. There is an Arctic air stream pushing into Russia. Is this a sign that the earlier strat warming impacts are not quite done with us yet with further HLB to come? There were meant to be several further minor warming impacts but they might not be so effective or even reach the surface in the Arctic. Very much one to watch. Even if we did manage another easterly (perhaps proceeded by a northerly) later next week and into week 2 it would almost certainly not be nearly as severe as the current spell. Temps on the continent start to recover steadily as we move through March. Mind you, the March 2013 cold spell lasted into April. TBH, the patterns have been so unusual, it would be foolish to rule anything out for a while!

Well, that's my last one of these reports and it was fun sharing our experiences on this thread. If the cold does return, so will I. I do like all types of unusual and extreme weather and if there is anything that has a particular SW regional slant to it, I'll be back. After a short break, I may do the odd MOD post but my main focus will be on developing the Teleconnections Learning Thread which I set up a few weeks ago. With all the recent excitement, the thread has gone very quiet. There's a small group of us who are planning to kick it back into action later this month. Paul has almost completed arranging some special software to allow me to set up a library alongside the thread. This will house all the papers and links. The teleconnection brigade plan to start a thorough analysis and debate into the causes of this record breaking event. This goes back to how changes in tropical forcing and mountain torques back in February were at least partly responsibe in triggering the stratospheric warming. This is a really exciting propspect and we will have learnt an awful lot about this winter's patterns. Anyone who's interests go beyond just watching and enjoying the snow may like to join us in the debate. I'll make several announcements when it gets underway in a few weeks time.  

There are some suggestions that we may see some good late Spring and early summer warmth this year. This is often associated with a movement out of La Nina back to ENSO neutral conditions which is well underway. Nothing is guaranteed but it would be very welcome for many of us. Please don't tell the Daily Express (other papers are available) otherwise they'll be telling us to get the BBQs out next week .  Anyway, let's just enjoy our ever changing British weather. David   

Edited March 3, 2018 by Guest
Correct typos and check charts

[*Stormforce~beka*]

Well thats it :-( Went up above 0c here around 130 or something. Lots of drip drip going on. Trying to shove the kids out for a last play but they don't want to go!

I was well sad and wanted to cry for real last night when it all started melting for everyone. But today i'm ready for spring. Only a few weeks off of convection and thunder rumbles! Strap in for more summer fun! Whose in?? :-D

Time to go plant some seeds!

[Pauldjbailey]

Ok last few pics of the snow, couldn’t resist turning the snowman on his head!! Quite pleased with my snow pile! ?

Edited March 3, 2018 by Pauldjbailey

[Wilxy]

Its raining cats and dogs! my rain bucket has measured about 1mm of rain in last 5 mins!

[Mapantz]

Been piddling down here. Including met water, the Davis gauge has measured 16mm and by pure chance, my manual gauge has exactly the same.

Temp: 4.1°C - Hum: 93% - Dew: 3°C - Apparent: -1.5°C - Bar: 988.22hPa - Wind: E @ 13mph gusting  to 26mph.