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South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards


BlueHedgehog074

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Posted
  • Location: Poole
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Hot Sun (but not at the same time!) 57m asl
  • Location: Poole
2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

App Upgrade alert!!

2A1646DE-EFAB-4FE0-9E88-09E3D22A4D4C.thumb.png.8507d2a2e8d1d08175143c0fd571a783.png3097303D-FC05-4A6E-8DDB-7597723DC9EE.thumb.png.8aa9fb5702c81b4f73c689a16b59df92.png

You get an upgrade and Bournemouth get a very slight downgrade and a push back till 8am when the snow should start. 

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
5 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Behave:D when you've gathered them, I would be interested in your thoughts as I respect your reading of the output.

One of the problems I suspect is this double front structure that the METO are keen on. Just been looking at the GFS-WRF and it has the snow coming in very early tomorrow morning which would be the initial upper ? front I assume and then see this on the GFS

gfs_ptype_slp_uk2_8.thumb.png.bd97ce794235ea9683079a79883cc356.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
2 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Which app?

Met O App

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Looks like the HIRLAM and ARPEGE (12z and 00z respectively) are keen to give a good covering for central southern areas along with areas further SW,  whereas the GFS/NMM and ICON (12z's) aren't interested at all. We're only 30 hours away and the snow depth ranges for central south are anywhere from about 1 to 15cm!

 

Looks like the ARPEGE 12z is sticking to it's guns. Will be interesting to see when it gets in range of the AROME.

Edited by Sainsbo
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Posted
  • Location: Marlborough, North East Wiltshire 143M/469ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snow in the winter, warm and dry in the summer !
  • Location: Marlborough, North East Wiltshire 143M/469ft ASL

My Meto app has also just updated and to my eye seems to follow the ARPEGE precipitation pattern almost exactly!

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
6 minutes ago, Leon1 said:

can you send a screenshot for BA1 please lol because my app hasnt been updating since 12! :nonono:

14FBF35C-731C-408C-A4FF-FEAB357DA687.thumb.png.1b7e49fe40cb0b8555d37d4d54edca5b.pngC2BCD322-7507-414B-A988-4A24618C1B04.thumb.png.03e514c5fc370780d9395d17ca1470ff.png6A20AEF7-EE75-4131-921E-08D7A1310BD0.thumb.png.cdc52d13b0686062e7f353c733659dba.png

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

Well I must say this has been one of the most 'upgrading late-on' snow events I can recall for the region.

GFS has increased the spread of heavier snow tomorrow afternoon/evening and now keeps the vast majority under snowfall rather than freezing rain through to Friday morning, at which point the surface front comes in having taken on a west-east alignment and then moves more slowly north than previous runs, resulting in another full day of snow for many.

HIRLAM has trended the same way this evening but having already been more widespread with tomorrow's snow. So now it's all the way over to some of the eastern regions which does seem a bit over-the-top but at least it gives us extra confidence with respect to being within the heavier falls :D.

ARPEGE is akin to HIRLAM for tomorrow but then has Friday's front so disrupted that it takes until mid-afternoon to arrive and doesn't produce a lot of precipitation to work with. It also shows rain in the far south but this model tends to under-modify low-level air as it moves off bodies of water so I'm not expecting that to be the reality, though it's not out of the question if the timing is in the least cold part of the day and the precipitation so feeble. We can't lie down on that one just yet so it's a good thing we have tomorrow's blizzards lined up first :laugh:.

 

For extra security, I really would like to see ECM further reduce or better yet totally remove the freezing rain spell from proceedings on the 12z; the 00z was a good move toward that but still had a few hours of it on the eastern fringes i.e. right over my locality.

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Posted
  • Location: Downton, Wiltshire
  • Location: Downton, Wiltshire
5 minutes ago, knocker said:

One of the problems I suspect is this double front structure that the METO are keen on. Just been looking at the GFS-WRF and it has the snow coming in very early tomorrow morning which would be the initial upper ? front I assume and then see this on the GFS

gfs_ptype_slp_uk2_8.thumb.png.bd97ce794235ea9683079a79883cc356.png

 

That would be horrible. The freezing rain element is a worry in all this.

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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
Just now, wiltshire weather said:

My Meto app has also just updated and to my eye seems to follow the ARPEGE precipitation pattern almost exactly!

12z Arpege very consistent with its previous output, providing again, a widespread snow event by Friday morning;

IMG_20180228_165113.thumb.png.5eefcf27eceb8dd8039024d7bb6d7d6b.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: Marlborough, North East Wiltshire 143M/469ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snow in the winter, warm and dry in the summer !
  • Location: Marlborough, North East Wiltshire 143M/469ft ASL
6 minutes ago, Sainsbo said:

Looks like the HIRLAM and ARPEGE (12z and 00z respectively) are keen to give a good covering for central southern areas along with areas further SW,  whereas the GFS/NMM and ICON (12z's) aren't interested at all. We're only 30 hours away and the snow depth ranges for central south are anywhere from about 1 to 15cm!

Looks fine to me, just about!

tempresult_dwe5.gif Modele GFS - Carte prévisions

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Posted
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winter, warm/hot summer with the odd storm thrown in
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
2 minutes ago, AWD said:

12z Arpege very consistent with its previous output, providing again, a widespread snow event by Friday morning;

IMG_20180228_165113.thumb.png.5eefcf27eceb8dd8039024d7bb6d7d6b.png

 

Shows nothing on my patch of the coast. :fool:

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
3 minutes ago, matt111 said:

Shows nothing on my patch of the coast. :fool:

They tend to do that. Have a look at the coast by Dublin for eg. 

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and lots of it or warm and sunny, no mediocre dross
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl

It's blowing a right hoolie here, wind has really picked up over the last half an hour or so making it feel even colder. The stray cat is still living in my porch although I'm glad to report now MUCH chunkier thanks to all the food it's been scoffing. It resolutely refused to go anywhere near the cat bed I bought it so I ended up making it a shelter, just been out and wrapped it up with even more layers, probably in danger of suffocating now :oops:I am a bit concerned though, my porch faces east, snow incoming and blowing a hoolie, hope he doesn't get buried in a snow drift.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
12 minutes ago, jtay said:

That would be horrible. The freezing rain element is a worry in all this.

Yes it is. You can see where they are coming from. This does not quite cut the mustard but if a chunk of the inversion gets above 0C then FR is in business

sounding.thumb.jpg.94d0c1ee400dcc61887c22980a5b07ea.jpg

 

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy winters, warm springs, hot summers, warm then stormy autumn
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl

Yes please, just an appetiser ;)

362A7925-3397-4237-9C54-44971CE4EF8D.png

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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

12z Arpege snow accumulations by end of play Friday look very similiar to the Meto forecast;

IMG_20180228_165825.thumb.png.ba26595ccc319b3ed6c41219ce140f5c.png

ie 10cm - 20cm widely and up to 50cm over the moors.

Can definitely see Exmoor and SE Wales receiving a red warning if this chart were to verify.

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Posted
  • Location: Exeter, Devon, UK. alt 10m asl
  • Location: Exeter, Devon, UK. alt 10m asl
4 minutes ago, matt111 said:

Shows nothing on my patch of the coast. :fool:

Looking at that graphic, it strikes me that it is probably not modelling ppt type correctly for the coastal areas - hence it is not showing snow accumalation. The GFS ppt charts here on netweather also do this, if you check they always have a surrounding boundary of rain/sleet.  No snow for places like whitby, scarborough and the north coast of Exmoor do not make sense.

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and lots of it or warm and sunny, no mediocre dross
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl

A friend just shared these on Facebook, taken today on the shores of Lake Geneva. Looks a tad chilly over there.

28276729_2065392253487515_5265275724255766331_n.jpg

28279644_2065286356831438_851141909263652552_n.jpg

28377859_2065286443498096_1794806592103231789_n.jpg

28379263_2065392266820847_1628475285262624744_n.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
4 minutes ago, AWD said:

12z Arpege snow accumulations by end of play Friday look very similiar to the Meto forecast;

IMG_20180228_165825.thumb.png.ba26595ccc319b3ed6c41219ce140f5c.png

ie 10cm - 20cm widely and up to 50cm over the moors.

Can definitely see Exmoor and SE Wales receiving a red warning if this chart were to verify.

ROFL:rofl:

Looks at chart local area snow amount by Friday 1cm...loving it..

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
2 minutes ago, CheesepuffScott said:

Yes please, just an appetiser ;)

362A7925-3397-4237-9C54-44971CE4EF8D.png

Where's that taken from? Will be interesting to see if it actually materialises.

 

Not as interesting as seeing how well models actually capture the effect of blizzard conditions tomorrow, of course! I keep thinking about historical all-day blizzards and how the snow depth was often at least a bit more than the latest model consensus of 10-20 cm widely, and then there are the drifts... 

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Posted
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy winters, warm springs, hot summers, warm then stormy autumn
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl
Just now, Singularity said:

Where's that taken from? Will be interesting to see if it actually materialises.

 

Not as interesting as seeing how well models actually capture the effect of blizzard conditions tomorrow, of course! I keep thinking about historical all-day blizzards and how the snow depth was often at least a bit more than the latest model consensus of 10-20 cm widely, and then there are the drifts... 

The Home and Dry app; it has been pretty accurate (for me) at least over the past few days predicting the showers and what not.

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Posted
  • Location: Oakdale, Poole in Dorset
  • Location: Oakdale, Poole in Dorset

So 0cm of snow in Poole/bournemouth by Friday morning. About right. At least in the summer we have some of the best beaches and weather in the UK. Flip of the coin.

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