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South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards

BlueHedgehog074

By BlueHedgehog074
in Regional

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted

APERGE getting the heavy stuff going

arpege-1-31-0.png?28-16

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wiltshire weather Enthusiast

wiltshire weather

Posted
  • Location: Marlborough, North East Wiltshire 143M/469ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snow in the winter, warm and dry in the summer !
  • Location: Marlborough, North East Wiltshire 143M/469ft ASL
Posted

I'm not entirely sure the models etc. have got this correct yet.

Just looking at the latest ICON rolling out now and storm EMMA currently appears to be further east than that model run is showing.

For example in the satellite pic below, the front running down the south east coast of Italy is already well inland:

latest-ir.gif

whereas the ICON has it not making that location untill 2300:

iconeu_it1-1-10-0.png?28-15

May not make an ounce of difference of course, but any correction eastward I think would be a good thing before it swings up towards us as the core of the heavier precipitation would hit our region instead of heading up to Ireland.

tempresult_cak9.gif

Also, I assume the further elongated the low pressure is eastwards, the more cold air it continues to pull in.

Either way, the ICON is still showing a decent snow event for the next two days even for me in the NE of our region :)

 

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A.J Maestro

A.J

Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
Posted
1 minute ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

To add the ICON and NetwX NMM look to go hand in hand. GFS, ECMWF, ARPEGE, HIRLAM all point towards heavier, more widespread snow.

I used to like the NMM suite.....If it gets this right, I'm gonna hunt it down and kill it :bomb::crazy:

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted

by +32 

arpege-45-32-0.png?28-16

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Bristawl Si Maestro

Bristawl Si

Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
Posted
Just now, tomjwlx said:

arpege-1-32-0.png?28-16BANK!

Ahh....so it is an annoying-the-wife looking out the living room window whilst she is watching TV kinda evening:D

Best get the Blackthorn in for tom eve. Could be an all-nighter!

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jtay Veteran

jtay

Posted
  • Location: Downton, Wiltshire
  • Location: Downton, Wiltshire
Posted
1 minute ago, Bristle boy said:

Is that showing just light snow?

It's picks up a couple of frames later.

image.thumb.png.37a2a6e8a0b34f8eefb8c09847760377.png

I suspect however, that Karlos' point is that we don't really want to be playing model poker at this point.

It won't do us any good with that kind of spread.

 

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John88B Community Regular

John88B

Posted
  • Location: Thornbury, South Glos
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes
  • Location: Thornbury, South Glos
Posted

A very heavy snow shower here in Yate accompanied by gusty winds.

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MidnightSnow Rising Star

MidnightSnow

Posted
  • Location: Yate, Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Harsh Frosts & Heavy Snow
  • Location: Yate, Bristol
Posted
Just now, John88B said:

A very heavy snow shower here in Yate accompanied by gusty winds.

Didn't expect this from looking at the radar!

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Bristawl Si Maestro

Bristawl Si

Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
Posted
Just now, John88B said:

A very heavy snow shower here in Yate accompanied by gusty winds.

It is heading this way. Looking to my East out of living room window shows dark clouds almost here

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Theresnoway Contributor

Theresnoway

Posted
  • Location: Poole
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes, inc Snow and Wind
  • Location: Poole
Posted
1 minute ago, jtay said:

It's picks up a couple of frames later.

image.thumb.png.37a2a6e8a0b34f8eefb8c09847760377.png

I suspect however, that Karlos' point is that we don't really want to be playing model poker at this point.

It won't do us any good with that kind of spread.

 

Indeed, this thread will be all the better for some positivity ?

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted
Just now, jtay said:

It's picks up a couple of frames later.

image.thumb.png.37a2a6e8a0b34f8eefb8c09847760377.png

I suspect however, that Karlos' point is that we don't really want to be playing model poker at this point.

It won't do us any good with that kind of spread.

 

Correct, whilst we have no agreement, there's no point getting in a tizzy! I'll be watching activity over France overnight then progress into channel

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wiltshire weather Enthusiast

wiltshire weather

Posted
  • Location: Marlborough, North East Wiltshire 143M/469ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snow in the winter, warm and dry in the summer !
  • Location: Marlborough, North East Wiltshire 143M/469ft ASL
Posted

Seems to be a rash of showers headed our way from London right now:

image.thumb.png.790ed3e79fdf6183a222ef3adaa21ad8.png

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Bristawl Si Maestro

Bristawl Si

Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
Posted
Just now, Bristle boy said:

It is heading this way. Looking to my East out of living room window shows dark clouds almost here

It's arrived in SG. Looks like it might get fairly heavy

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CheesepuffScott Accomplished

CheesepuffScott

Posted
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy winters, warm springs, hot summers, warm then stormy autumn
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl
Posted

Stuck in a sandwich

026D0F98-DC44-4250-B74F-BCDB58DF5C8E.png

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Bristawl Si Maestro

Bristawl Si

Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
Posted

Looks v heavy 2 miles to my North towards Almondsbury motorway interchange - any one up there working at Aztec West?

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