South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards

[CheesepuffScott]

The snow here has frozen over! Want another shower or two before tomorrow.

[Gibby]

A real old blizzard going on down on the Lizard peninsula. Quite a rare sight.

http://www.camsecure.co.uk/lizard_atlantic_house.html

[AWD]

4 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

Wtf heavier snow now - where has this come from! 

The snow shower over you on the radar.

[That ECM]

1 minute ago, Gibby said:

A real old blizzard going on down on the Lizard peninsula. Quite a rare sight.

http://www.camsecure.co.uk/lizard_atlantic_house.html

How good is that. Love it.

[AWD]

1 minute ago, Gibby said:

A real old blizzard going on down on the Lizard peninsula. Quite a rare sight.

http://www.camsecure.co.uk/lizard_atlantic_house.html

Nice to see you posting again.

I would very much be interested in your unbiased views regarding the potential snowfall on Thurs/Fri for our area?

[Theresnoway]

6 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

Wtf heavier snow now - where has this come from! 

The Sky?

[Jayfromcardiff]

Bristol channel really going for it!

[Jayfromcardiff]

2 minutes ago, Theresnoway said:

The Sky?

There's always one  it doesn't look heavy on the radar but already 0.5cm.

[Frank Trough]

really hoping for some showers for Bomo today. Fingers crossed for tomorrow - I really need some good news and hope we'll get a covering. I've got a raging tooth infection and I really need cheering up.

Working at home tomorrow in bomo but this is the view from my office window in Fleet this morning..

Edited February 28, 2018 by Certain kind of fool

[Frosty hollows]

Morning all. Light dusting overnight. Currently sunny and bright. My app says it's -5c but my outdoor sensor stopped working last night. Clearly not - double digit proof

[khodds]

Morning all, hope you are not too exhausted from all this weather watching ?. Sandwiches between the Cardiff snow and the streamer off the south coast right now, no mans land!

cant wait until tomorrow!!

[Frosty hollows]

43 minutes ago, Dorsetbred said:

Watching the streamer in the channel, from Bournemouth, it's a fine sight to behold first thing in the morning, convective trail as far as the eye can see.

Can you get a pic?

[Jayfromcardiff]

Trying to upload a video but says file too big? Cars struggling up the hill here.

[snowdog]

Pleased to say the atmospheric pressure is dropping here and for the first time that I can remember my weather station has 'snow symbols' flashing!

[Gibby]

12 minutes ago, AWD said:

Nice to see you posting again.

I would very much be interested in your unbiased views regarding the potential snowfall on Thurs/Fri for our area?

Below is this mornings forecast from my Kilmersdon Weather Facebook Page. It covers the event itself. I haven’t looked further ahead into the weekend on this mornings forecast but I think a slow thaw will commence and while 850 upper air temperatures will of recovered temperatures near the surface will still be cold for some time given winds will be much lighter by then  and probably giving raw, dull, misty conditions. Even next week looks basically on the cold side of average with the driving force namely the Jet Stream still well South over Spain and the Med. Its not until the second weekend the Jet shows signs of moving North ( on ECM op) and restoring more normality across the U.K. We’ll see.

Our problem this morning is not snow but severe frost. As mentioned late last night it was the coldest night for 6 years and current temperatures are still -5C. So there will be widespread ice on lakes and ponds and on roads untreated so take care. With mostly sunny skies at times today you would expect things to warm up considerably but temperatures are not expected to exceed freezing point today and the Easterly wind will be increasing steadily through the day with severe windchill temperature making it feel like near -10C. Snow showers will be less in evidence today with many places staying dry though the odd stray one moving across from the East could give a dusting here and there. Tonight will see another severe frost aided by a strong East wind. Cloud will be moving up from the South or SE later. It still looks likely we’ll be in the firing line for some pretty heavy snowfall tomorrow and Friday driven on by a strong Easterly wind. Very locally freezing rain could be an issue too more likely near the South coast. The warnings link is the professionals guide on things for tomorrow and Friday. These will be updated later this morning and I’ll post them when they are released.
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings#?date=2018-03-01
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings#?date=2018-03-02
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings#?date=2018-03-03

[kumquat]

12 minutes ago, khodds said:

Morning all, hope you are not too exhausted from all this weather watching ?. Sandwiches between the Cardiff snow and the streamer off the south coast right now, no mans land!

cant wait until tomorrow!!

Cheese and pickle please - thanks for offering 

[matt111]

Looks like that blob over the IOW might clip here. 

[Jayfromcardiff]

Will it not snow in Cardiff?

[Purplepixii]

Bright sunshine and blue skies here but with temp of -4.3. Have topped up bird feeders and replaced completely frozen water with fresh. Just spotted a very thirsty pigeon on it so please make sure wildlife has food and water if you can 

[EllyTech]

2 minutes ago, kumquat said:

Cheese and pickle please - thanks for offering 

I hope she remembered to put that pickle on her shopping list?! 

[EllyTech]

4 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

Will it not snow in Cardiff?

[wiltshire weather]

Temp got down to -9.2c here last night, dont think we'll be breaking that for a while!

Keeping fingers crossed for all you guys along the south coast today.

[jethro]

Morning, take another look at the webcam Gibby posted, the Lizard is getting absolutely hammered. http://www.camsecure.co.uk/lizard_atlantic_house.html

[Guest]

Good morning everyone, this will probably be my last focus on any snow potential for today. From later this afternoon, I will join the rest of you in assessing the potential for tomorrow's snow event with several analyses. 

Live Radar Charts:                                                                                                                                                                                        NetWeather at 0620                                     NetWeather at 0835                                                                                                                                                      

            

Let's look at the current conditions and see what has happened overnight. Our Channel streamer has been edging northwards towards our southern shores but progress has been a little slower than I had expected. I put the NetWeather chart at the end as it is a screen shot and the white run through arrows may not work for it. It shows the position at 0620. As this post will take a while to prepare, I'll pop up the latest one alongside it at the end so that we can better judge the progress. EDIT: at 0835 its getting ever closer and Portsmouth and IOW as well as extreme south of Devon and Cornwall are already getting some snow from it. There is still a line of heavy snow showers in the streamer and they are now tantalisingly close to the extreme south. How far north will they go? Well at least a few of us in the far south and south west close to the coast  should see some action - perhaps the IOW westwards. It now seems likely that more inland areas will miss out today. I can only apologise for raising some of your hopes and I will be delighted if today does turn out closer to my earlier predictions. I'll look at why things have changed slightly in a minute. The snow showers in the south-east have recently cleared. The fractionally south of east veer in the wind meaning that they are now exposed to the shortest sea crossing. Meanwhile, East Anglia northwards will all do well today. As there is now a more direct east to west flow, none of those snow showers will be filtering down towards us. I included the "all France view" chart for the first time. This is so that we can all monitor the progress of the rain and snow from the LP slowly pushing northwards. Right now it is more on an east to east-north-easterly trajectory with all inland parts of north Spain and south west France seeing snow. Much more on this later today.

                Standard Satellite                                       Infra Red Sateliitte                  Aroma 0z:    T+1 0100 GMT                                    T+6 0600 GMT                                       T+10 0100 GMT

   Technical fault please refer to last post        

The satellite images show what I described above. At the time of writing the infra red has a technical fault, so please look at my live chart on page 120 which is still updating. Even more shower activity for the east today. The Aroma "forecast" charts from their 0z output are a little too progressive in moving the streamer away north-westwards. I adjusted the times to GMT. The middle chart shows a narrow streamer than was actually showing on the NetWeather radar for a similar time. This may be a slightly more encouraging sign with the streamer holding on for longer and maintaining intensity for longer while it continues to drift slowly northwards.

                     Live Pressure                              GIF 24 hours to 0750 Feb 28th                            Live isobars                                     Met O Fax for 0600 Feb 28th             Met O Fax for 0000 Mar 1st                                    

          

Well the flow has veered slightly to the east-south-east with winds due east at 0800. It will veer more to the south-east during today as we come more into the huge circulation from the LP to our south-west. I was expecting (hoping) that we would have seen a fraction more veering by now. This tiny difference is what it's all about today. It is why the streamer is not that little bit further north.already. As we come under the LP's influence, that will slowly cut off the convective activity in the Channel. It's really on a knife as to how quickly this will happen. The Met O fax for 0600 shows the trough (the centre of the streamer) hugging our shores. Then by midnight it has maintained the trough and it has crossed into Cornwall. By then (close your eyes Knocker) western Cornwall and the Scilly Isles "may" get a rare dumping. I live on a small hill in the far north-east of Exmouth about 2 miles from the sea. I can just see the sea and horizon from here and I can see the streamer. The northern edge is about 10 miles out to sea and it is a line of low level cumulonimbus clouds. So close for me and others along the south coast from Dorset westwards!.

            Fronts & Troughs 0700                                      Live UK temps                               Live UK Dewpoint temps                       Live UK Windchill temps 

         

       GFS 0z 850s at 1900 Feb 28th                            Live Euro temps                                    Live Euro Dewpoints                              Live Euro Windchill                       

            

I'm almost out of time. The lowest surface temps and dewpoints for those closer to the coast were earlier in the night as the slightly onshore wind brings in the moderating effects of the sea. This is NOT (yet) any less cold air moving in due to the LP purely due to the wind direction (more on that later today). In several spots the windchill has already gone below the sub -15 I suggested as possible yesterday - we may even see a sub -20c further north later on. The lowest 850s will be over us by early evening with sub -14s generally and a few sub -16c temps showing in the east. 

So, not so good from me for today but what about tomorrow? 

David

 

Edited February 28, 2018 by Guest
Correct typos and check charts

[CheesepuffScott]

Streamer looks like it’ll miss me by a bit