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South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards


BlueHedgehog074

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

Deep Breathes in Dorset south coasters, I think that ppn might just nudge in!! ? 

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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

The 0z Arpege is my fave this morning;

IMG_20180228_070259.thumb.png.1043f1ac0f15bec8e7be3c06f0b0e9b0.png

Widely 10cm - 15cm and a lot more over the moors by the end of play Friday.

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms in the summer, frost fog & snow in winter.
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset

No sign of any snow melt over night,  still a very wintry  scene out there this morning :) even had a snow flurry while I was in the garden putting the bird feeders out and de-icing the bird bath. 

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1 minute ago, AWD said:

The 0z Arpege is my fave this morning;

IMG_20180228_070259.thumb.png.1043f1ac0f15bec8e7be3c06f0b0e9b0.png

Widely 10cm - 15cm and a lot more over the moors by the end of play Friday.

I think that might be my favourite model as well. At my location it gives me 13 cm roughly which would be really nice form by far the biggest snowfall had since March 2013.

Mind you most models look decent for this area probably the only one that's not quite so go to gfs could it placed everything a little bit further West still good for the southwest but not so good for those in central Southern England where as vecm model that has everything further East and that's better for the whole entire of the South really.

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Posted
  • Location: Poole
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Hot Sun (but not at the same time!) 57m asl
  • Location: Poole
3 minutes ago, AWD said:

The 0z Arpege is my fave this morning;

IMG_20180228_070259.thumb.png.1043f1ac0f15bec8e7be3c06f0b0e9b0.png

Widely 10cm - 15cm and a lot more over the moors by the end of play Friday.

Nope don't like It! That shows us as having nothing ?? I may sob into my porridge if it's true for here. 

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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

0z EURO4 also good and quite widespread, with totals hitting 10cm for inland parts of the West Country;

18030200_2800.thumb.gif.e41f481391da1fabb063c9de0eb028bc.gif

Bear in mind, this model only goes up to midnight Friday so far, some snow is still expected to fall after this time so it "could" end up rather similar to 0z Arpege by end of play Friday.

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Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL

Another 50 mile tweak east would be better for whole region but still 12z to play for. 

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

If this is correct for today, it's fair to say I'll be doing nothing productive at 11.00  and will be looking out the window. Would be a nice bonus, maybe they are seeing some of the snow in the channel edging north?

IMG_0658.PNG

Edited by That ECM
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Posted
  • Location: Netley Abbey
  • Location: Netley Abbey

How much movement does anyone think i have for a chance of a decentish amount of snow in southampton? Apps are saying two days of and on snow but not heavy. Has the track of the low moved west? Am i likely to be disappointed?

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
2 minutes ago, Kreftysoton said:

How much movement does anyone think i have for a chance of a decentish amount of snow in southampton? Apps are saying two days of and on snow but not heavy. Has the track of the low moved west? Am i likely to be disappointed?

Honestly no one can answer that but if you don't see snow I'll be amazed.

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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Glos 102m a.s.l
  • Location: Stroud, Glos 102m a.s.l

Woken up to lightly falling snow for the 2nd time this week. That in itself is unusual. Not checked overnight temps yet but currently -2.8. 

Happy snow hunting people :friends:

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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

Not quite sure what the 0z Hirlam has been drinking but it shows this late Thursday into Friday;

hirlamuk-1-37-0.thumb.png.1f1aeab41f53b3c77273ee83ac68e288.png

hirlamuk-1-41-0.thumb.png.fa16f989526d42ea10ca86c5abf17cd5.png

hirlamuk-1-47-0.thumb.png.71695b16a2102832ead9b7909ff7621a.png

Unfortunately, I think that is a little optimistic.

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Posted
  • Location: Poole
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Hot Sun (but not at the same time!) 57m asl
  • Location: Poole
5 minutes ago, That ECM said:

If this is correct for today, it's fair to say I'll be doing nothing productive at 11.00  and will be looking out the window. Would be a nice bonus, maybe they are seeing some of the snow in the channel edging north?

IMG_0658.PNG

Same here. I will have radar open behind emails. ? Luckily I have a big window as well. 

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
5 minutes ago, That ECM said:

If this is correct for today, it's fair to say I'll be doing nothing productive at 11.00  and will be looking out the window. Would be a nice bonus, maybe they are seeing some of the snow in the channel edging north?

IMG_0658.PNG

Got my eye on this, should pep up between iow and us hopefully as well

70040F14-6B7C-47BC-B77E-C364284694A9.thumb.jpeg.e766a55fc7f695fafcc4ba7a51234daa.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: sunny sunny Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Bartlett style mild and benign
  • Location: sunny sunny Bournemouth

the dusting we had in Bournemouth yesterday has sublimated overnight.

Still looking like "West is best" for tomorrow/Fri if it's snow you want. Gut feel here is we may just get a covering here in Bournemouth before it turns to rain.

Edited by Uncle_Barty
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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

0z high res Arome model just coming into range now, shows the front hitting the south coast later on Thursday;

aromehd-1-40-0.thumb.png.f3c2825d42dadfff64d4c20972389ca0.png

aromehd-1-42-0.thumb.png.1e293a66f6dea8b280c9de9b186d080d.png

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Posted
  • Location: Thornbury, South Glos
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes
  • Location: Thornbury, South Glos
17 minutes ago, AWD said:

The 0z Arpege is my fave this morning;

IMG_20180228_070259.thumb.png.1043f1ac0f15bec8e7be3c06f0b0e9b0.png

Widely 10cm - 15cm and a lot more over the moors by the end of play Friday.

I should imagine red warnings going out in parts of the south west and south Wales when you combine those snow totals with the very strong winds. Barring last minute changes, possibly a memorable event unfolding.

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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
2 minutes ago, John88B said:

I should imagine red warnings going out in parts of the south west and south Wales when you combine those snow totals with the very strong winds. Barring last minute changes, possibly a memorable event unfolding.

I think SE & E Wales might see a red warning if indeed a red warning is issued.  Quite good "broad brush" trend across 0z model output for places like Brecon's, Abergavenny, Cwmbran & up towards west Hereford & Welshpool to be hardest hit.  Obvs mountainous regions at highest risk.

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Posted
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire
15 minutes ago, Smartie said:

No sign of any snow melt over night,  still a very wintry  scene out there this morning :) even had a snow flurry while I was in the garden putting the bird feeders out and de-icing the bird bath. 

I don't think snow would ever melt under these conditions, perhaps just dry up/evaporate.

A general question , could we term the showers currently stretched NE to SW in the Bristol Channel as a 'reverse streamer' ?

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Posted
  • Location: North Devon
  • Location: North Devon

Quite a lot has fallen along the north devon coast. Still falling. School closures up here. Ilfracombe on the Bristol channel coast hit hard.

Edited by Ydoj
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Posted
  • Location: Shanklin, isle of wight
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,snow and more snow
  • Location: Shanklin, isle of wight
32 minutes ago, wormster33 said:

Just edging up into Brighstone area now.  Going white ATM

I’ve got a great vantage point as I’m high up over shanklin. And the snow cloud,be it light. Looks like it could go on for a while! South Wight could do well here! 

Edited by iowpompeylee
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