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South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards


BlueHedgehog074

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Posted
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy winters, warm springs, hot summers, warm then stormy autumn
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl

1:45am.. @EllyTech

We are both in look if it stays on path :)

BCD8B767-68AC-4777-BCCF-7FE037C3B5E9.png

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Posted
  • Location: Dousland, South Dartmoor 205 m/asl
  • Weather Preferences: The fabled channel low
  • Location: Dousland, South Dartmoor 205 m/asl

Sleeping is coming an issue what with all this potential snowy madness!

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
3 minutes ago, festivalking said:

Sleeping is coming an issue what with all this potential snowy madness!

Yes tell me about it lol, got my 1st annual brain scan tomorrow so that’s playing on my mind a bit, but nowhere near as much as snow lol a word from Ian now would be timely ?

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Posted
  • Location: Benson, Oxfordshire
  • Location: Benson, Oxfordshire
1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

Yes tell me about it lol, got my 1st annual brain scan tomorrow so that’s playing on my mind a bit, but nowhere near as much as snow lol a word from Ian now would be timely ?

Oh blimey Karlos. Hope all goes well x

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

My patience got the better of me, that’s cleared nothing up lol

C30EFFAB-F78B-4AB7-A755-0A86404AA68B.thumb.png.3f0abf3486329f62671b2393c02b4e10.png

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Just now, Frosty hollows said:

Oh blimey Karlos. Hope all goes well x

Cheers, sure it’ll be fine, it’s a checkup, I’ll let you know if they find a brain :crazy:

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Posted
  • Location: Chipping Sodbury
  • Location: Chipping Sodbury

Baffling. I cannot find any output that remotely reflects the forecast on BBC Points West this evening or the Amber zone. Nothing. Most of the output takes it across western wales and Ireland. Patchy stuff at best here. What am I missing? Are the forecasts being heavily modified with human input? It’s not even tonight. It was the same yesterday. 

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
1 minute ago, Matty-H said:

Baffling. I cannot find any output that remotely reflects the forecast on BBC Points West this evening or the Amber zone. Nothing. Most of the output takes it across western wales and Ireland. Patchy stuff at best here. What am I missing? Are the forecasts being heavily modified with human input? It’s not even tonight. It was the same yesterday. 

Models obviously onto something or apps wouldn’t show this :)

6252C96E-945C-4F77-B77F-4CD0FC372925.thumb.png.6725dd31af218a4a2400117c51febdc8.png

shame we don’t get to see UKMO ppn charts

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Posted
  • Location: Ilminster, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Thundersnow
  • Location: Ilminster, Somerset
22 minutes ago, kumquat said:

Someone in SE thread just posted this - http://www.camsecure.co.uk/whitstable_beach_webcam.html  Whitstable webcam. It looks nuts.

Hopefully we'll be seeing some of that come Thursday.

They're nearly 14mins ahead of what my clock says ????

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Posted
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy winters, warm springs, hot summers, warm then stormy autumn
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl
2 minutes ago, Ashme said:

They're nearly 14mins ahead of what my clock says ????

I’m guessing the time is set wrong on the camera or they’ve established a new time zone just for there :p

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Posted
  • Location: Cheltenham, Gloucs.
  • Location: Cheltenham, Gloucs.
18 minutes ago, CheesepuffScott said:

1:45am.. @EllyTech

We are both in look if it stays on path :)

BCD8B767-68AC-4777-BCCF-7FE037C3B5E9.png

Hoping it gives us all around the Estuary a sprinkle on its way through. Looking good so far. 

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Posted
  • Location: Yate, South Gloucestershire
  • Location: Yate, South Gloucestershire

18z EURO4 +48 :)

18030118_2718.gif

 

Here's the 18z full run Rain/Snowfall

Euro4.thumb.gif.439885442f9aabf0ba4f181521d0e3a6.gif

Edited by Zephyr
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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

Temps dropping again

 

A3638C85-F4A2-44C3-A221-3F1F78EB483D.thumb.png.f9412d319a2a904c760e9e6937252992.png 

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Posted
  • Location: BS15 8bx
  • Location: BS15 8bx
13 minutes ago, Matty-H said:

Baffling. I cannot find any output that remotely reflects the forecast on BBC Points West this evening or the Amber zone. Nothing. Most of the output takes it across western wales and Ireland. Patchy stuff at best here. What am I missing? Are the forecasts being heavily modified with human input? It’s not even tonight. It was the same yesterday. 

??? Not sure where your getting your information from but Snow charts from above posters show huge snowfalls possible over you and most of the SW. In addition BBC TV and Met Office predictions are currently onboard with heavy snow for our area.

Edited by Richard Fisher
Typo
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Posted
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winter, warm/hot summer with the odd storm thrown in
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
4 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Temps dropping again

 

A3638C85-F4A2-44C3-A221-3F1F78EB483D.thumb.png.f9412d319a2a904c760e9e6937252992.png 

Same temp -4.5°C, DP -7°C. 

Edited by matt111
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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
1 minute ago, matt111 said:

Same temp -4.5°C, DP -7°C. 

Yep -4.5c now DP -8.6c

could hit 2 records tonight, very close to both of them 

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A brief update (to keep Knocker happy):

All are live charts

pression2_eur2.png  lastsnowradar_uk.gif  lastsnowradar_no.gif  anim_ir_color.gif anim_ir.gif 

pression.png  temp_uk.png  temp_eur2.png  pointrosee_eur2.png  windchill_eur2.png

Scandi HP still it situ and now up to 1057 mb. Flow is now just south of east coming out of France and will be across the whole of the Channel within 2 to 3 hours. Channel streamer slowly moving northwards and northern edge is just touching far south of Devon. it has maintained its intensity in the central and western Channel.  Even more snow showers with some heavier ones crossing North Sea. Low temps across UK with sub -6c in our region but also right down to south France. Overall, good signs for the streamer to change orientation and push into south and south-west coast. "Should" be some heavier snow showers by dawn moving inland from south Dorset coast westwards. . 

Further update; Wednesday am.   David 

EDIT: Thursday's detail is still uncertain, I will review it fully tomorrow afternoon.

Edited by Guest
Correct typos and check charts
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Posted
  • Location: Portishead
  • Location: Portishead

Ok. So the high res NAE has this for Thursday afternoon.

A couple of other things to note; the 850's are slightly lower on the NAE also and Thurs max temps across SW are a crazy minus 2!

18030118_2718.gif

Edited by Paul T
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Posted
  • Location: Magor - South Wales
  • Location: Magor - South Wales
32 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Yes tell me about it lol, got my 1st annual brain scan tomorrow so that’s playing on my mind a bit, but nowhere near as much as snow lol a word from Ian now would be timely ?

Good luck Karlos.......1 for your scan and 2 of course for the snow ;-) 

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Posted
  • Location: Chipping Sodbury
  • Location: Chipping Sodbury
10 minutes ago, Richard Fisher said:

??? Not sure where your getting your information from but Snow charts from above posters show huge snowfalls possible over you and most of the SW. In addition BBC TV and Met Office predictions are currently onboard with heavy snow for our area.

Much of the raw output. GFS, ECM, ARPEGE, ICON, all of these showing small amounts of snow here (where I am - North Bristol). I can’t link charts, but 18z ARPEGE shows around 6cm here total accumulation. ICON even less. GFS patchy and lighter. 

Check out Fergusson on Twitter, There’s a chart on there recent. He seems to allude as to it being a firming up of events (less). Someone asks him if the warning will now  be scaled back tomorrow. He says depends on midnight runs

Admittedly the last chart of EURO4 looks decent enough

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