South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards

[jtay]

5 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

My interest is on that clump of snow showers north of London heading WSW..Can they hold it together?

 

South Today just suggested that they will make it, but will fade a bit along they way.

[Wilxy]

gone very dark to my NE

[CheesepuffScott]

Dark to my north east too looks like some more showers

[Climate_Eyes]

That big pink blob that's just got off the Thames, no not Boris Johnson! The one on the radar. I've got my eye on that.

[offerman]

12 minutes ago, Nights King said:

First snow of 2018 

Nice one KK

where are you based? 

[Jemma Croton]

13 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Snowing in Mudeford 

Jealous. I love Mudeford.

Heres the MetO amber warning updated I posted in the MOD. 

[Wilxy]

very fine flakes of snow falling now

[Frank Trough]

chucking it down in Farnborough! just couldn't see this happening an hour ago! bonkers.

 

[Bristawl Si]

1 minute ago, tomjwlx said:

gone very dark to my NE

Prob head thru Kwood, Hanham and out thru S Bristol. Dark clouds to my East but broken cloud to North of me.

[CheesepuffScott]

Some flakes coming down again in Downton. I’m off break in a minute so that’s a shame

[dancing daisy]

14 minutes ago, Nights King said:

First snow of 2018 

Aww an Alfa. ❤️ Mine caught fire. Sad times! ?

 

No snow here, just a grungy cold day, so far...

[jtay]

4 minutes ago, CheesepuffScott said:

Dark to my north east too looks like some more showers

Like this...

Decent flakes falling now.

[jtay]

6 minutes ago, Climate_Eyes said:

That big pink blob that's just got off the Thames, no not Boris Johnson! The one on the radar. I've got my eye on that.

I think we should save that for @katemart

[That ECM]

5 minutes ago, Jemma Croton said:

Jealous. I love Mudeford.

Heres the MetO amber warning updated I posted in the MOD. 

Just need shuffle that tick up a couple of boxes. Thanks for the info.

[matt111]

Just now, jtay said:

I think we should save that for @katemart

You could always send it here. 

[jtay]

Just now, matt111 said:

You could always send it here. 

I reckon it's big enough for both of you.

 

[festivalking]

Nothing to report here in this part of devon, tomorrow could be our day for snow showers.

And regards to the end of week I got this feeling this could be our time people!!!!

[matt111]

It looks like the heaviest part of the shower that’s heading towards me is off into the solent just before it reaches here. Still might see a few flakes as it passes. 

Edited February 27, 2018 by matt111

[Jemma Croton]

3 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Just need shuffle that tick up a couple of boxes. Thanks for the info.

I actually think it will get there if freezing rain stays a possibility. Let me copy a post I put out on FB

[eddy88888]

19 minutes ago, Rapodo said:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-43207709

Don't think many will miss this now.

Hi yes i agree with you, that forcast has us in well in the white zone, no freezing rain to start with maybe later but i think we will have a good dumping of snow by then, im a postman going to fun on delivery thursday

[Jemma Croton]

Bear in mind I word this for the weather ignorant 

 

I know, I know, ANOTHER weather post.

I really want to hone in a little bit away from the showers today and tomorrow and onto the front coming up from the south Thurs/Fri.

It’s important I think to talk about this because there is a very rare and hazardous potential in the far SW with this front.

The track of this low is still not completely clear but what we do know is that the low will come in land and, because it’s a low, it will bring heavy precipitation that will, at least initially, fall as snow. Potentially very heavy snow and blizzards. 

This low is tricky right now and the reason is because it’s bringing milder air which will come up against that block and no model seems to have a footing as to how quickly that mild air might mix out the cold. Letting rain fall and the low to head further north... or will it hit the cold and stall giving even heavier accumulations. Quite literally every model is giving a different track and progression so it is tricky to forecast and it will continue to be more of a nowcasting event.

What this brings, aside from the snow, gales and potential blizzards is something called freezing rain. It’s rare in the U.K. so no surprises if you wonder what the heck that is. It is a VERY hazardous weather where the precipitation falls as rain BUT immediately freezes on impact on any surface. Like literally immediately. 

This alone is hazardous enough but this front is going to be a snow to rain event if rain does fall so what *could* happen if this occurs is we have heavy snow fall and, at the time of day this is looking to hit it will be snow that is disturbed by daytime movements. Crunched by footsteps and mushed by cars etc. If (IF) this does then give way to freezing rain we could have ice forming on top of that deep, disturbed snow and really that is a recipe for disaster.

This is mostly likely to happen (if it does) in a sort of area if you draw a line from Bristol to Brighton, anything below that. That’s a lot of rural areas etc. Freezing rain can also damage power lines and trees etc because of the weight of the ice on these structures.

I really hate to have to post out about a hazard when things are still so unclear but it’s unlikely we will get firm clarity until this event is upon us and, with the MetO now mentioning it their forecast it’s looking more like a real possibility than the “shit, this looks like it could give freezing rain... can you imagine” talk in weather communities the past few days.

The track of the low can change but it will come up from the S/SW on Thurs/Fri and has a warning in place because of the hazards involved. Please stay close to MetO forecasts and remember to check regularly as they are constantly updated in events like this. I will post again as we get closer.

[divadee]

we now have a yellow warning for Saturday in the region as well. That one snuck past me!

[Nights King]

9 minutes ago, dancing daisy said:

Aww an Alfa. ❤️ Mine caught fire. Sad times! ?

 

No snow here, just a grungy cold day, so far...

I love my Alfa  its a real car 

12 minutes ago, offerman said:

Nice one KK

where are you based? 

Near gurney slade on mendips not far from mendip golf course.

Edited February 27, 2018 by Nights King

[nettie]

Nothing here !! roll on Thursday.  Going to crawl back into bed and check the window in about half an hour.  

[matt111]

Just now, divadee said:

we now have a yellow warning for Saturday in the region as well. That one snuck past me!

Yes it was there before today but it’s been extended to include the whole region.