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South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards


BlueHedgehog074

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Posted
  • Location: Chepstow Wales
  • Location: Chepstow Wales

BB62-63 What a fantastic read ' loved it Dave ' i do se your posts in the MAD HEAD THREAD ' But i skimmer in there as most of them are idiots and fickle as frackle . Is there any chance you can post all that in our Welsh group please .

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Posted
  • Location: Chepstow Wales
  • Location: Chepstow Wales
7 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

Time for a reality check and a reminder before I turn in...

Here in the south west, through the midsts of time, there has been always been one, just the one, holy grail of a weather setup that we need for ‘the big one’. It can give dumpings of a foot or more, sometimes in excess of two. The majority of the biggest snowfalls in England have occurred in the south west, and have come from such a set up.

We will go for years on end without this setup even being a twinkle in the eye of the weather chart Gods. 

Which leads me nicely on to my point. Which is that what we have here is exactly the setup, whilst strewn with concerns about marginality, it must be understood, that these fine margins HAVE to be there by its very nature.

Cold embedded Continental airmass and accompanying low dewpoints ✅ A longwave trough, absolutely sodden with moisture, approaching from the South West ✅ 

Embrace the moment, enjoy the leadup, because we are still in the game. These do NOT come along at +72 very often.

From the tip of Cornwall to North Somerset, across to Wiltshire, down to the Isle of Wight and back west along the south coast. That’s a large area and there will be some happier than others come Saturday. Maybe it will end up being a damp Squibb for the majority, it’s a firm possibility. But that’s not my point, which is that, for once, we have the genuine potential of a once in a 40 odd year snowfall on our doorstep, an outside chance of spectacular snowfall, but a chance nevertheless.  

 The important thing to stress again is marginality. It ALWAYS comes into play in these setups. High risk. High reward. Let the east coast have their frequent heavy showers and 10cm accumulations, we are playing the high rollers.

And Wales .Should be mentioned as we are on the cusp of you great folk x Nice post by the way .

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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

0z Arpege model for Thursday evening/night;

arpege-1-64-0.thumb.png.b39f3b1ac9253a0cc159f608906dd1e4.png

arpege-1-69-0.thumb.png.c62a40b4f152a1acb4c09f79752e2fb8.png

BANK!!!

Edited by AWD
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Posted
  • Location: Shanklin, isle of wight
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,snow and more snow
  • Location: Shanklin, isle of wight

Feeding off scraps here on the IOW..... ?...... the scraps that make it here..... which is not much ?

Edited by iowpompeylee
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Posted
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy winters, warm springs, hot summers, warm then stormy autumn
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl

There is literally ice covering most of my bedroom window

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

-4.5c here now and I set another DP record of -9.1c a couple of hours ago 8)

drive to west sussed now for work. Hopefully we all get some action later today, but I still think tonight and into tomorrow will be our best shot!

models look better again for Thursday/Friday! 

Edited by karlos1983
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Posted
  • Location: Gosport
  • Location: Gosport

Had a few flakes blowing in the wind around 5am.
Was 1.6c at midnight and got to a low of -2.7c at 6am, still hovering around that now.
Dewpoint -5.3c
Hoping we get the lunchtime light snow showers that look to be heading our way.

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Posted
  • Location: North Devon
  • Location: North Devon

Just reading the BBC news article where they quote their own forecasters as saying any precipitation will turn to snow. Not sure how that adds up with the rain they are giving for Thursday night? Light dusting here in North Devon this am. Looks very nice over on the sand dunes.

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

Just watched carol on the BBC and that got me all excited which to be fair had little to do with her showing an all snow event for Thursday/Frday :D:D have a good one.

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Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos

-5c; clear skies. No snow overnight; nit even a graupel.

What's Thurs/Fri looking like on latest charts? Seen AWD's arpege charts. Is it back on?

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