South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards

[karlos1983]

5 minutes ago, AWD said:

12z WRF NMM delays the front until Friday daytime, but still with a similiar theme of snowfall inland & freezing rain or just rain around coasts;

Looks like snow on the south coast to me. 

[matt111]

3 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Looks like snow on the south coast to me. 

Certainly looks like that on our patch of the coast. 

[katemart]

1 hour ago, Polar Bear said:

Wonder where BEEB has got that from?  - HE not tweeted anything yet to that respect (they are Highways England now not the Highways Agency)..

Chappy on BBCNews repeated twice this afternoon but cant find any reference to it now

[Nights King]

3 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Looks like snow on the south coast to me. 

Interesting.. doesn't look like much of a blizzard like earlier forecasts were painting a picture of on bbc but shall see.

No snow here today though very chilly. 

[Jayfromcardiff]

Snow all the way down to the south coast by the looks!

[Wilxy]

ITS SNOWING OMG!

[John88B]

Snow swirling around in the wind here for the last hour or so.

[khodds]

Okay, just got in and just so I’m clear; no snow chances now for Somerset until Thursday now.... right?

[Nights King]

1 minute ago, khodds said:

Okay, just got in and just so I’m clear; no snow chances now for Somerset until Thursday now.... right?

[Duane S.]

Strange the Met don't have a yellow for south coast strip between Devon and Sussex on Wednesday.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings#?date=2018-02-28

I've been eyeing up that day for the past week as for when things get started for me. Winds turn ESE. That hasn't wavered (unlke the end of the week!)

I'd maybe understand if the algorythms were basing it on sea track distance of streamers but surely there is human intervention regards these warnings. I can't see why anywhere on the south coast couldn't cop for a good inch or two between Wed and Thursday. Especial locally SE facing coastlines / pennisulas.

 

(BTW decent update regards the uppers on the latest ECM for us coast dwellers)

[khodds]

2 minutes ago, Nights King said:

Or am I wrong?!

 

[Nights King]

Just now, khodds said:

Or am I wrong?!

 

It seems a fair assessment to me to be fair....

All our eggs are in one (Thursdays) basket now 

[Polar Bear]

16 minutes ago, katemart said:

Chappy on BBCNews repeated twice this afternoon but cant find any reference to it now

He’s being a cheeky chappy me thinks.. 

[swebby]

6 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

Strange the Met don't have a yellow for south coast strip between Devon and Sussex on Wednesday.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings#?date=2018-02-28

I've been eyeing up that day for the past week as for when things get started for me. Winds turn ESE. That hasn't wavered (unlke the end of the week!)

I'd maybe understand if the algorythms were basing it on sea track distance of streamers but surely there is human intervention regards these warnings. I can't see why anywhere on the south coast couldn't cop for a good inch or two between Wed and Thursday. Especial locally SE facing coastlines / pennisulas.

 

(BTW decent update regards the uppers on the latest ECM for us coast dwellers)

I think (i.e guessing as an amateur) that the air mass in france may be exceptionally dry - short sea track and not much omph to any showers?  Was also wondering why when it veers ESE that east anglia does not seem to be seeing many showers.

[Bristawl Si]

Light snow flurries here in SG

[mrsmall]

1 minute ago, Bristle boy said:

Light snow flurries here in SG

Still quite a lot of showers coming over. 

[Polar Bear]

Hmm not so happy with the Met office warning on Friday. Rain and less cold?  oh shut up ... 

[offerman]

1 hour ago, wiltshire weather said:

Icon on the left, GFS on the right

  

Thank you so much Wiltshire Weather 

 

really appreciated 

 

wow the icon delivers snow continues cold and more snow from secondary low ...... ??????????

[karlos1983]

0.0c & DP of -8.1c... 

[Duane S.]

1 minute ago, swebby said:

I think (i.e guessing as an amateur) that the air mass in france may be exceptionally dry - short sea track and not much omph to any showers?  Was also wondering why when it veers ESE that east anglia does not seem to be seeing many showers.

Certainly a shortened sea track would have an effect but there should be plenty enough instabilty in the airmass to get things going over the channel as that trough edges close. Am hopeful they will amend that soon

[Nights King]

1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

0.0c & DP of -8.1c... 

-2.2c - precipitation - nill. 

[AWD]

Can't say I am all that enthused with the latest 12z EC Det.

Looks a bit "meh" with a snow - rain - snow mix but most of the PPN relatively light.

No way near a mega blizzard anyway.

Edited February 26, 2018 by AWD

[mrsmall]

4 minutes ago, Polar Bear said:

Hmm not so happy with the Met office warning on Friday. Rain and less cold?  oh shut up ... 

Still looking good in West Country. 

[offerman]

36 minutes ago, knocker said:

Just a copy of my post in the other thread

The updated fax charts for midday Tuesday-1200 Weds showing the wave over Wales and the convergence zone through the channel. Thus the snow showers may impinge more along the south coast.

 

 

BLLX 

Those fronts moving to north of our region meaning the north plastered tomorrow and nothing here looking at that front . 

[Nights King]

4 minutes ago, AWD said:

Can't say I am all that enthused with the latest 12z EC Det.

Looks a bit "meh" with a snow - briefly rain - snow mix but most of the PPN relatively light.

No way near a mega blizzard anyway.

I bet it dwindles again by tuesday 12z so we have patcy light snow forecast...

Im not feeling it this evening I just feel in grumpy mood and im convinced it will end up a non event with gradual erosion of cold spell before atlantic comes crashing in with an all rain event later on 

Maybe ill perk up later after a few beers. 

Edited February 26, 2018 by Nights King