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South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards


BlueHedgehog074

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Posted
  • Location: Emsworth, Hampshire
  • Location: Emsworth, Hampshire
3 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

20th December.

That's why December 2010 will never go down as a 'special one' unlike a lot of other folk on here. It was cold, but that was it. The true, ultimate blunder came in 2009. Dorset was put on a red warning for snow. There were folks out stocking up on essentials etc and while everyone was asleep, the red warning was removed and placed further East. We were still on an amber warning, but,  barely an inch of snow fell. For many years, you could still find the reports and even the images of the red warning. They suddenly disappeared a few years ago, and I can't find a trace of information, now.

Oh apologies, the event I was talking about was 30 or 1st December 2010 I believe? Was a Thames streamer setup that did quite well down here given the distance the showers had to cover over land.

I remember the 20th too though, was a front moving in from the South west, we got a dusting that froze solid. I think the front stalled over Southampton and N Hampshire?

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Posted
  • Location: Benson, Oxfordshire
  • Location: Benson, Oxfordshire
10 minutes ago, Catacol said:

A better day than yesterday. Just a chink suggesting the low will disrupt against the block and split east/west as per both UKMO and ECM. Rumours that this is the Mogreps solution also. GFS sticking with yesterday's scenario.

Not sure that we will know for sure until Tuesday if it will disrupt or not - but the trend today is decent. 

Incidentally - effective disruption of this kind would be the absolute gold plated scenario for the south. Might involve a bit of snow to rain and then back to snow - but overall it would give us the best possible chance of a blizzard and extensive lying snow through to next week. 

Such incredibly fine margins. Have never seen anything like it. Very bad for the nerves.

Is what my guts told you all at t24424

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Posted
  • Location: Cheltenham, Gloucs.
  • Location: Cheltenham, Gloucs.
13 minutes ago, dec10snow said:

Just my two pennies worth, I’m only young but from experience a low up against a block is NEVER modelled correctly!

From the ones I can remember I have, December 2010, not that I’m sure on details, but the forecast was for the low to come across the British Isles, giving us snow all across the south and moving to the east. 

Reality? The front stalled over Somerset and I woke up the next day expecting a decent covering of snow, what I had was very heavy snow and a panic red warning from the met for Somerset!

Now we have Jan 2013, again an Atlantic low coming into a cold block, forecast was for rain to snow for me and although that was strictly true, the snow started about 6 hours ahead of schedule whilst the forecast was still reading rain! Not a great snowfall event, granted, as the conditions just weren’t cold enough for snow to stick around, so got a good layer but there was a lot of dripping!

Last one, March 2013....... Channel Islands getting buried, need I say more ?

Moral of the story, more often than not the block is underplayed in these scenarios and you get the sense the models don’t deal well with something so far from the norm!

Oh, there will be red warnings alright!

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
1 minute ago, Dean E said:

Oh apologies, the event I was talking about was 30 or 1st December 2010 I believe? Was a Thames streamer setup that did quite well down here given the distance the showers had to cover over land.

I remember the 20th too though, was a front moving in from the South west, we got a dusting that froze solid. I think the front stalled over Southampton and N Hampshire?

ah - we may have had a flurry or two, but not lying snow prior to the 20th. I say lying, does less than an hour count as lying? Cherna-squirrel.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Cheltenham, Gloucs.
  • Location: Cheltenham, Gloucs.
8 minutes ago, jethro said:

Can I make a plea..... this is the regional thread and I reckon it's one of the best on here, we have a laugh, swap stories, make shopping lists and occasionally even discuss the weather. What doesn't usually happen in here is bickering and I for one am thankful for that. There's the Mad thread for serious disagreements, I can't see there's a need for that to spill over into here.

I know the stakes are high, probably higher than it's ever been in all the years on here but please, please can we keep it friendly and light hearted.

Did you buy your pickle? People are leaving pickle off their shopping lists. I've been reminding them.  :D

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Posted
  • Location: Emsworth, Hampshire
  • Location: Emsworth, Hampshire
4 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

ah - we may have had a flurry or two, but not lying snow prior to the 20th. I say lying, does less than an hour count as lying? Cherna-squirrel.gif

Depends on how desperate you were! :D

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and lots of it or warm and sunny, no mediocre dross
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl
2 minutes ago, EllyTech said:

Did you buy your pickle? People are leaving pickle off their shopping lists. I've been reminding them.  :D

:bad: Mayo for me.

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Posted
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winter, warm/hot summer with the odd storm thrown in
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire

Quite a lot of showers getting going further east now. Hopefully we'll be joining in later on. 

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Posted
  • Location: Bridport, West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme
  • Location: Bridport, West Dorset
36 minutes ago, Nights King said:

I have a feeling the bbc/met office will end up right and it will stall against block and slugishly move east.. :)

I really do think this is a good old fashioned battle ground scenario developing.......and the meto have nailed it, look at the pressure chart for Thursday , it's a big fat sausage blowing east to west , I'm sure this was mentioned by Steve Murr yonks ago as the best synoptics for cold and snow in the UK........Everything is topsey turvey, instead of the air mixing out to warmer air as would be the case normally it will not be in this case, there is to much cold so the opposite can happen. The best way to describe it would be to have a glass filled 1 quarter with cold water then top up with 3 quarters warm water , the water is warm, do the opposite the water is cold. It's going to take a lot of energy to shift this block.

So what i am saying is the milder air in this low pressure on Thurs/Fri could be mixed out , resulting in no rain, this is maybe why the meto keep the cold theme going into the weekend?

65202938.gif

Edited by Mark Parsons
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Posted
  • Location: Hampshire Snow Hoper
  • Location: Hampshire Snow Hoper

Not us but snow being reported in south east earlier than expected,so a minor start 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Cheltenham, Gloucs.
  • Location: Cheltenham, Gloucs.

Here's a quote from the MAD thread -

"Im going for the low to go West to East diving South East"

Do I have something wrong with my brain? I cannot get my head around that statement.... against this block? It'll stall. 

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Posted
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy winters, warm springs, hot summers, warm then stormy autumn
  • Location: Redlynch, Wiltshire / 110m asl

I can’t sleep.

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Posted
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winter, warm/hot summer with the odd storm thrown in
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
1 minute ago, EllyTech said:

Here's a quote from the MAD thread -

"Im going for the low to go West to East diving South East"

Do I have something wrong with my brain? I cannot get my head around that statement.... against this block? It'll stall. 

When even the experts seem confused what hope do we have? :unknw:

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Posted
  • Location: Coalpit Heath, South Gloucestershire
  • Location: Coalpit Heath, South Gloucestershire
19 minutes ago, jethro said:

Can I make a plea..... this is the regional thread and I reckon it's one of the best on here, we have a laugh, swap stories, make shopping lists and occasionally even discuss the weather. What doesn't usually happen in here is bickering and I for one am thankful for that. There's the Mad thread for serious disagreements, I can't see there's a need for that to spill over into here.

I know the stakes are high, probably higher than it's ever been in all the years on here but please, please can we keep it friendly and light hearted.

Quite. I have just read through the last few pages and was "bothered" by some posts........there actually seemed to be some nastiness creeping in. Not nice.

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Posted
  • Location: Cheltenham, Gloucs.
  • Location: Cheltenham, Gloucs.
3 minutes ago, Mark Parsons said:

I really do think this is a good old fashioned battle ground scenario developing.......and the meto have nailed it, look at the pressure chart for Thursday , it's a big fat sausage blowing east to west , I'm sure this was mentioned by Steve Murr yonks ago as the best synoptics for cold and snow in the UK........Everything is topsey turvey, instead of the air mixing out to warmer air as would be the case normally it will not be in this case, there is to much cold so the opposite can happen. The best way to describe it would be to have a glass filled 1 quarter with cold water then top up with 3 quarters warm water , the water is warm, do the opposite the water is cold. It's going to take a lot of energy to shift this block.

65202938.gif

The ' battlegrounds' that we've become familiar with are short term set-ups where we have Northerlies clashing with Atlantic systems. Always a brief but often very snowy scenarios. Worth mentioning that battleground snow is often our 'British-type' wet snow.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Bridport, West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme
  • Location: Bridport, West Dorset
5 minutes ago, EllyTech said:

Here's a quote from the MAD thread -

"Im going for the low to go West to East diving South East"

Do I have something wrong with my brain? I cannot get my head around that statement.... against this block? It'll stall. 

Yes spot on bud........

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Posted
  • Location: Bridport, West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme
  • Location: Bridport, West Dorset
2 minutes ago, EllyTech said:

The ' battlegrounds' that we've become familiar with are short term set-ups where we have Northerlies clashing with Atlantic systems. Always a brief but often very snowy scenarios. Worth mentioning that battleground snow is often our 'British-type' wet snow.

 

Yes wet is the norm , but not always.

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Posted
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winter, warm/hot summer with the odd storm thrown in
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire

-1.1°C with a DP of -5.3°C here. 

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Posted
  • Location: Emsworth, Hampshire
  • Location: Emsworth, Hampshire
15 minutes ago, EllyTech said:

Here's a quote from the MAD thread -

"Im going for the low to go West to East diving South East"

Do I have something wrong with my brain? I cannot get my head around that statement.... against this block? It'll stall. 

I think from that statement that mean the low running along Southern England or the Channel and exiting through Belgium/Northern France.

Completely possible.

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

Temp: -1.2°C - Hum: 71% - Dew: -5.8°C - Apparent Temp: -5.8°C - Wind Chill: -4.7°C - Wet Bulb: -2.6°C - Bar: 1028.78hPa - Wind: NE @ 6mph.

I sent my cat out for a pee as he has been lounging on the sofa most of the day. I think his black nuts got a bit chilly, he was over the gate pretty fast! lol

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Posted
  • Location: Bridport, West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme
  • Location: Bridport, West Dorset

Off to bed , it will be no different tomorrow peeps......perhaps to loosen the stress we should have a poll........

1. Will it be a historical blizzard.

2. It won't happen at all and be dry.

3. It will be mostly rain but north of the M4 they will get buried.

4. Lots of snow to rain and slush.

Any more to add feel free. Just vote by number upto 3 votes per member?

What do you think peeps?

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