South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards

[Mapantz]

I should add; you shouldn't be looking at the 500hPa wind charts for direction of flow. You should be looking at the 850 to 925hPa charts.

[jethro]

6 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

I'd never move just for snow, Jethro. This place is buzzing from late Spring until Autumn. And, I'm within a bike journey's distance of dozens of amazing beaches.

In an ideal world I'd have a cottage in the Cairngorms for winter and one on the coast in Cornwall for summer. I'll keep buying the lottery tickets.

[Nights King]

5 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

I'd never move just for snow, Jethro. This place is buzzing from late Spring until Autumn. And, I'm within a bike journey's distance of dozens of amazing beaches.

See that's difference between us.. I won't move unless I find position elevated enough or further north.  lived on coast in Wales for 5 years but just longed for the white stuff. Beach was great but I'd sacrifice that. 

[festivalking]

I would not get too hung up on weather apps for Thursday night Friday. Lots to be decided yet. I'm a fine one to talk as last time we had a so called event I'm sure I got repetitive strain injury updating apps left right and centre! 

Gut feeling suggests snow to rain at the moment. What percentage is snow and rain who knows. 

In the meantime watch them low dew points and look forward to an ice day on Wednesday or Thursday!

[festivalking]

4 minutes ago, jethro said:

In an ideal world I'd have a cottage in the Cairngorms for winter and one on the coast in Cornwall for summer. I'll keep buying the lottery tickets.

I'd Have one round Glencoe in the winter and one on the outer Hebrides in the summer!

[knocker]

28 minutes ago, OldBloke said:

I note that the 500 hPa (18,000ft)  is now a Northerly bringing in Scandinavian air across the east as I speak. This is bringing in moist air in the form of high cirrus cloud and possibly altostratus. As a result temperatures are starting to rise in the North East of the country. There is a small block or precip' just off the N.E coast which is falling as rain at present. I also note that temperatures are starting to rise in the far South West (plus 5 being recorded) as the active front which will possibly produce the low pressure area on Tuesday moves ever closer to the west of us. No wonder the forecasters are struggling with a confirmed outcome. Even Tuesday might show variations for Thursday!

It may well be near northerly at the moment but the 500mb level does not directly advect the cold air into the UK. And in any case by 12 tomorrow it will veer NE and even further down at the 700mb level as the cold air becomes established over the UK. You are talking twaddle in a very obvious wind up

Edited February 25, 2018 by knocker

[EllyTech]

2 minutes ago, knocker said:

It may well be near northerly at the moment but the 500mb level does not advect the cold air into the UK. And in any case by 12 tomorrow it will veer NE and even further down at the 700mb level as the cold air becomes established over the UK. I'm you are talking twaddle in a very obvious wind up

Thanks Knocker, I think most of us are not taken in by that poster.

[knocker]

14 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

I should add; you shouldn't be looking at the 500hPa wind charts for direction of flow. You should be looking at the 850 to 925hPa charts.

Correct, certainly the lower levels.

[Zephyr]

Just back from a 5km run what a beautiful night for running, perfect temp to run out there at the moment thought I'd get my long run out the way this evening as this week looks to be shaping up to have snow on the ground and not ready to break my just leg yet.  Wonder what the 18z is going to be like shortly... 

[DanDorsetUK]

Well have to say met office app tonight for poole and bournemouth area looks just cold. Warnings lifted apart from Thursday and not one flake showing till then and turning to rain by 1am Friday. Pretty dire.

Edited February 25, 2018 by Rapodo

[Frosty hollows]

37 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

DP record!!!!! -7.9c 

I win .-8

[eddy88888]

38 minutes ago, Climate change said:

My app looks like that but for Thursday.

Hi your app for wareham  says rain early hours for friday morning, but for my area says snow i live in ferndown dorset not that far from you both live in dorset how can the two forcasts be rain for you and snow for me i guess ferndown is 5-7 miles away from the coast

[divadee]

1 minute ago, Rapodo said:

Well have to say met office app tonight for poole and bournemouth area looks just cold. Warnings lifted apart from Thursday and not one flake showing till then and turning to rain by 1am Friday. Pretty dire.

It can all change as quickly again as it has today. Keep the faith fellow from Bournemouth! We are going to get some this time. Sometime we have to be the bride instead of the bloody bridesmaid. 

[Frosty hollows]

15 minutes ago, festivalking said:

I would not get too hung up on weather apps for Thursday night Friday. Lots to be decided yet. I'm a fine one to talk as last time we had a so called event I'm sure I got repetitive strain injury updating apps left right and centre! 

Gut feeling suggests snow to rain at the moment. What percentage is snow and rain who knows. 

In the meantime watch them low dew points and look forward to an ice day on Wednesday or Thursday!

My guts too!

[eddy88888]

3 minutes ago, Rapodo said:

Well have to say met office app tonight for poole and bournemouth area looks just cold. Warnings lifted apart from Thursday and not one flake showing till then and turning to rain by 1am Friday. Pretty dire.

Hi you will have to play in the snow thursday night should have a good covering before the rain melts it friday

[Frosty hollows]

14 minutes ago, festivalking said:

I'd Have one round Glencoe in the winter and one on the outer Hebrides in the summer!

Oh god..the outer hebrides in June. Paradise 

[EllyTech]

4 minutes ago, Frosty hollows said:

I win .-8

Only -6C here. 

[Evening thunder]

Hmm.. I'm not feeling too optimistic this evening. ECM is still not good for my location.. marginal by 9pm Thursday (so no ice days from this spell on that) and precipitation quite light before that time.  GFS gives a few hours of snow overnight before it turns to rain too.

Better further N/E in the region. UKMO probably better though maybe still tuning to rain/freezing rain due to 850's of 0 to +2C.

Also, models now push sub -15C 850's north of here on Weds night.. with temps/night minima forecasts not quite as cold as a result (previously ECM showed -6C with wind..), so not quite as remarkable now.

Ah well, should see something and it will be interesting to watch things this week. Temp/dew point dropping away here. +1.4C but the DP a pretty low -7.5C.

Edited February 25, 2018 by Evening thunder

[festivalking]

4 minutes ago, Frosty hollows said:

Oh god..the outer hebrides in June. Paradise 

Absolutely in total love and awe of the place. Barra being the pick of them for me. Always of course hope for dry sunny weather but always fancy a quick storm so to light the fire and drink and eat copious amounts of port  and cheese.

Would love to do a winter up so to get some real weather. A 60 mph gale brings weather warnings down here up there a normal day. Love it.

[EllyTech]

I've a feeling there will be spanners in the models this evening. Just a hunch.. .and I'll pay no attention. The main theme is written as far as I'll accept. Detail might change towards the week's end, and, how much snow we all collectively get etc. but we are getting colder with snow.. Dew points are already pretty insane... its almost here.

[Bobafet]

46 minutes ago, OldBloke said:

I note that the 500 hPa (18,000ft)  is now a Northerly bringing in Scandinavian air across the east as I speak. This is bringing in moist air in the form of high cirrus cloud and possibly altostratus. As a result temperatures are starting to rise in the North East of the country. There is a small block or precip' just off the N.E coast which is falling as rain at present. I also note that temperatures are starting to rise in the far South West (plus 5 being recorded) as the active front which will possibly produce the low pressure area on Tuesday moves ever closer to the west of us. No wonder the forecasters are struggling with a confirmed outcome. Even Tuesday might show variations for Thursday!

Quite clearly on the wind up, don't feed the troll and make use of the ignore user button!

I notice you have been looking on the thread and have not replied to people who have disproved what you are saying, any reason for this or are you purposely on the wind up?!?

[rh205]

Does anyone else find the new BBC Weather TV graphics bad at showing snow showers? I mean the wider snow areas are obvious by the fact that there are snowflakes superimposed on them but the showers just look like thick cloud / fog rolling in off the north sea. If it wasn't for the fact that I know snow showers are forecast and the presenter pointing to them I can see them easily being mistaken for cloud or fog.

[katemart]

1 hour ago, CheesepuffScott said:

How do I love thee? Let me count the ways... ?????

[OldBloke]

Please feel free to use the ignore button if you wish. All I've done tonight is to tell you what is happening to the upper atmospheric winds at 18,000ft and to a small cluster of rain showers which is now turning to snow when it reaches land in the East of Scotland and N.East England. I've also mentioned that I have noticed that temperatures in the far west of our region have started to increase. My only assumption in my post was a personal opinion as to why the forecasts are changing on an hourly basis. I also offered advice that it might be prudent to wait until Tuesday before you wax the runners on your sledge. Now, if you feel the need to ignore me and call me a troll, feel free.

Edited February 25, 2018 by OldBloke

[kent]

How I hate those 5 words in the forecast, "away from the south coast."  and what is classified as the south coast anyway.  its  never said away from the SW or SE coast so living here in  Poole I take it personally lol.