South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards

[jtay]

18 minutes ago, offerman said:

wowow

have a look

at Thomas Schafanaker latest forecast 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather

 

 

 

 

 

Has Tomasz had some work done?

[Frosty hollows]

8 minutes ago, mrsmall said:

Found it. https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/43184987

He does tend to ramp though 

[EllyTech]

6 minutes ago, CheesepuffScott said:

Yeah, then across the Channel to Calais, then to Belgium, and back on Saturday morning! What's the chances my plans are disrupted? The roads are gonna be awful.

Just hope you are young, fit, very prepared and have reasonable delay times built in.

[Nights King]

Well after the failure of my - 5 screenwash once I managed to thaw it out in sun today I flushed it through and put something abit tougher in...

Mr Jack frost won't beat me this time..  

 

Edited February 25, 2018 by Nights King

[EllyTech]

Just now, Nights King said:

Well after the failure of my - 5 screenwash once I managed to thaw it out in sun today I flushed it through and put something abit tougher in...

Mr Jack frost won't beat me this time.. 

 

Where on Earth (Obviously not the Arctic) did you find that?! 

[Nights King]

Just now, EllyTech said:

Where on Earth (Obviously not the Arctic) did you find that?! 

Just a local garage here on mendip 

[Rich_Clements]

Its going to be interesting to see what they say on the Countryfile forecast for the week ahead.

[A Frayed Knot]

[AWD]

If anyone could help me decipher the latest 12z EC Det, and what it means for our region later in the week & into the weekend, it would be much appreciated?

I "think" we could be looking at mainly snow all around, with little rain, including into Saturday, but with very limited charts to view to ascertain this, I can't be all that confident.

Edited February 25, 2018 by AWD

[jethro]

Evening all, in the hope that it's white at the end of the week and definitely not wet, I've penned my excuses. If I'm arrested for kidnap, I hope you'll all come to my defence, if you have a whip round for my bail I promise the drinks will be on me.....

 

Oh beautiful snow, you've kept me awake

Watching you fall, flake after flake

The heating is off and I have grown cold

Doesn't stop me feeling like a six year old

But we're not all the same, my hubby, he's snoring

Silently I ask, how can THIS be boring?

Where did it come from, our love of snow?

Is it tales we were told as we did grow?

A Dickensian Christmas, that Victorian twee

Stories that were told at our mothers knee?

But that season has gone and Easter is nigh

Oh finally, at last, you fall from the sky

Winter, was it always your intention to bring

Late season joy, stick two fingers up to spring?

So is this it, the last hooray, the last gasp?

Or will you lock us in with your icy hasp?

If this is it, winter's going away

No questions asked, I'm going to play

But hubby's asleep and my children have flown

Sensible, mature with babes of their own

They live far away, well all but one

So quietly I dress and off I do run

Will I get into trouble, do I care

As I knock at the window, ask 'anyone there?'

A face it appears, eyes full of glee

It's my baby's babe, 'Hello Nanny!'

Aubrey my dear, will you come out to play?

We can dance, roll and shout before it all goes away

I've got my brown coat and we can run wild

And here in the snow, you can be Gruffalo's child

Does it matter if she's tired and grumpy by tea?

Mummy and Daddy yelling at me

'Mother grow up, you're not young, you're old'

'What possible joy can you see in this cold?'

So I'll say I tried, to infect them with this affliction

To instil this desire, this addiction

But I failed in my aim, although I really did try

To pass on my love, of magic that fell from the sky

And so it's my duty to the next generation

To pass on this love, this veneration

For Unicorn kisses and fairy dust glitter

That comes from heaven when the weather is bitter

[Nights King]

Just now, AWD said:

If anyone could help me decipher the latest EC Det, and what it means for our region later in the week & into the weekend, it would be much appreciated?

I "think" we could be looking at mainly snow all around with little rain, including into Saturday, but with very limited charts to view to ascertain this, I can't be all that confident.

Do not fear AWD my met app says snow and cold saturday too so mild clearly doesnt break through after the front.. 

[Nights King]

2 minutes ago, A Frayed Knot said:

Ive reported this off topic nonsense 

Mild outlier 

[Matty-H]

1 minute ago, AWD said:

If anyone could help me decipher the latest EC Det, and what it means for our region later in the week & into the weekend, it would be much appreciated?

I "think" we could be looking at mainly snow all around with little rain, including into Saturday, but with very limited charts to view to ascertain this, I can't be all that confident.

My very amateur interpretation is that uppers are more favourable for an all snow event. I’m talking about southern and southwestern coastal areas now as it’s always looked an all snow for Chipping Sodbury area. My ‘concern’ is if the westerly track continues, the associated fronts will go with it. Way too far off to be sure. At the moment, and taking ALL output into consideration, the potential is there for a serious snow event. 

[AWD]

1 minute ago, Nights King said:

Do not fear AWD my met app says snow and cold saturday too so mild clearly doesnt break through after the front.. 

My Met App shows light snow & a max temp of 3c for Saturday, has done all day, hence why I am dubious about a quick breakdown for those of us further inland.

[khodds]

Schaffer nacker bum bum says next weekend will be more snow. So if he says it is, then that’s what it’ll be.

Going to the pub for a quiz fundraiser. Back after 10 for the 18z....

[AWD]

1 minute ago, Matty-H said:

My very amateur interpretation is that uppers are more favourable for an all snow event. I’m talking about southern and southwestern coastal areas now as it’s always looked an all snow for Chipping Sodbury area. My ‘concern’ is if the westerly track continues, the associated fronts will go with it. Way too far off to be sure. At the moment, and taking ALL output into consideration, the potential is there for a serious snow event. 

It's not just about the 850hpa values though.  I would like to see accompanied surface temps and DP's to have a decent call at the resultant weather on the ground on Friday/Saturday.

The UKMO & EC are so vastly different though, that neither can be taken with great confidence currently.

[Zephyr]

That centipede looks interesting along the south coast 

[Matty-H]

Just now, AWD said:

It's not just about the 850hpa values though.  I would like to see accompanied surface temps and DP's to have a decent call at the resultant weather on the ground on Friday/Saturday.

The UKMO & EC are so vastly different though, that neither can be taken with great confidence currently.

True, and they are both favourable for an all snow event right down to the south coast

But it’s one operational run. In the grand scheme of things it tells us very little. The bigger picture is all the info available to us from all models, and there’s is undoubtedly, currently, a marked chance of something quite noteworthy. All subject to all manner of changes at four days out though. Light years 

[knocker]

12 minutes ago, AWD said:

If anyone could help me decipher the latest 12z EC Det, and what it means for our region later in the week & into the weekend, it would be much appreciated?

I "think" we could be looking at mainly snow all around, with little rain, including into Saturday, but with very limited charts to view to ascertain this, I can't be all that confident.

It has the front in the Channel and cold air still in residence along the south coast at T96

By Friday 00 the front is further north with warmer air creeping in 5-C in Cornwall but still only 1-2C further east with much of the precipitation west of Cornwall but a line of snow moving north east to the east

By 1200 Friday still warmer in the far south west but the front and a belt of snow is orientated Wales to Kent as it tracks north east

Edited February 25, 2018 by knocker

[Bobd29]

Jethro, one word....brilliant. I am possibly just a bit older but certainly of the same persuasion as you. I try very hard to enthuse my grandkids with my childish love of snow, much to the amazement of their parents...long may it continue.

[Nights King]

Funny thing is about all this if we all get this blizzard it will not even go down as winter snow cover so many could say they didn't see a flake in winter of 17/18 

thats if Tuesday/Wednesday doesn't deliver the goods of course.

[AWD]

To summarise where we stand after the 12z runs anyway regarding Thursday/Friday,

- nothing much as changed.  Lots of uncertainty but a very possible threat of a spell or two of significant snowfall across many parts of the region, temporary or not.

[AWD]

1 minute ago, knocker said:

It has the front in the Channel and cold air still in residence along the south coast at T96

By Friday 00 the front is further north with warmer air creeping in 5-C in Cornwall but still only 1-2C further east with much of the precipitation west of Cornwall

By 1200 Friday still warmer in the far south west but the front and a belt of snow is orientated Wales to Kent as it tracks north east

Thank you for that.  All in all, for those of a wintry persuasion that do not live in Cornwall, a decent Det run then.

As ever though, low confidence at how all this plays out and affects the region on a localised scale.

[Mark Parsons]

As i was saying earlier, it's going to take a lot of energy to shift this block, this is a displaced polar vortex driven by a SSW , there has been a second warming with a lag time as well which needs to be considered . This isn't a standard easterly which is easy blown away, quite the opposite, the models will continue to throw up solutions to a break down, what is happening is against the norm so they will default at times.

[EllyTech]

4 minutes ago, Nights King said:

Funny thing is about all this if we all get this blizzard it will not even go down as winter snow cover so many could say they didn't see a flake in winter of 17/18 

thats if Tuesday/Wednesday doesn't deliver the goods of course.

That's a great point! It won't figure into any winter records either - if records happen to be broken that is.