South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards

[MidnightSnow]

[OldBloke]

Well, that "Beast from the East" had better get a move on. Temperatures across many parts of the UK have been well above freezing and in some places double figures. Even in the near continent this afternoon where the "beast" is coming from were getting into the realms of plus 6/7. In Middle France it has been a barmy 13 degrees. The really cold air is still stuck in a rut from Latvia to Austria and has been so for 5 days now. I'm still reading of day time temperatures in the UK of minus 10. If that is going to be the case then things are going to have to change pretty quick. If the "Beast" does find it's way into the UK then it really will be a very short "extra" cold snap. 

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/overlay=temp/orthographic=1.41,47.60,850/loc=19.467,53.939

 

 

Edited February 25, 2018 by OldBloke

[AWD]

UKMO 12z shows that 0c Isotherm barely hitting the M4 before quickly retreating south again.

Taking this 12z UKMO at face value would suggest;

- snow, rain back to snow for southern coastal counties and Devon & Cornwall

- all snow for M4 corridor counties

Just my opinion of course, and subject to a lot of change still.

Just shows the changes that can still happen in a relatively reliable timeframe.

[Frosty hollows]

Just now, AWD said:

UKMO 12z shows that 0c Isotherm barely hitting the M4 before quickly retreating south again.

Taking this 12z UKMO at face value would suggest;

- snow, rain back to snow for southern coastal counties and Devon & Cornwall

- all snow for M4 corridor counties

Just my opinion of course, and subject to a lot of change still.

Just shows the changes that can still happen in a relatively reliable timeframe.

Bring it on!Bring it on! Bring it on!

 

I reserve the right to change my mind on this if I get snowed in at work tho

[Andy Bown]

4 consecutive days with no cloud and possibly a 5th to come tomorrow, although more likely to have Stratocumulus if not something more convective.

That in itself is extremely rare.

[Frosty hollows]

3 hours ago, XLNC said:

It’s amazing how Reading is out of every Warning ⚠️ other then Wednesday hoping for 2cm max at this rate.

You can't be far off. I'm only up the road and I've a warning for Tuesday but think Thurs/Fri will be great/ horrific for us

[Evening thunder]

9 minutes ago, OldBloke said:

Well, that "Beast from the East" had better get a move on. Temperatures across many parts of the UK have been well above freezing and in some places double figures. Even in the near continent this afternoon where the "beast" is coming from were getting into the realms of plus 6/7. In Middle France it has been a barmy 13 degrees. The really cold air is still stuck in a rut from Latvia to Austria and has been so for 5 days now. I'm still reading of day time temperatures in the UK of minus 10. If that is going to be the case then things are going to have to change pretty quick. If the "Beast" does find it's way into the UK then it really will be a very short "extra" cold snap. 

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/overlay=temp/orthographic=1.41,47.60,850/loc=19.467,53.939

 

 

Tbh I can't see any of those double figure temps temps or the temps in France/the near continent the latest observations (one site I use is xcweather.co.uk).

Today has been a cracker here, 100% sunshine and reached 6.9C. A min of -1.1C here and no inversion so colder higher up (lanes had ice one where water has seeped out fields). Colder air arrives tomorrow, at your altitude you should see ice days Monday-Thursday.

Might get one here too on Thursday, and hopefully some snow (with strong winds too). Though this may turn to rain with less cold air Friday and into the weekend, which I'm a bit disappointed about, but we still could get a major event before that happens.

[MidnightSnow]

2 minutes ago, Evening thunder said:

Tbh I can't see any of those double figure temps temps or the temps in France/the near continent the latest observations (one site I use is xcweather.co.uk).

I've checked 3 different sources and I couldn't find temps anywhere close to the ones suggested.

Fake news 

Edited February 25, 2018 by MidnightSnow

[EllyTech]

2 hours ago, Dorsetbred said:

You have to love these Easterly insurgents that bring clear blue skies and plenty of sunshine, with mild temperatures, currently 7.8C and full on sunshine. Went to town for the first time in years this morning and there's loads of folks out enjoying the warm sunshine, although the wind can be a tad cooling down the high st. Love it..

It has been another lovely day and just now, as long as you have a coat it is gorgeous out there.

[Mark Parsons]

29 minutes ago, khodds said:

I’m no expert, but I’m feeling much more positive now. UKMO and Icon similar, GFS - too progressive, as some have said; dartboard low against that cold air?! Nope. Mogreps (by rumour) leading the way with UKMO and Icon... 

PARTY ON PEOPLE!!!

Yes. That’s a ramp. 

I agree, break downs against a block often are to progressive and takes a couple of attempts to break through so im taking this with a pinch of salt.

[A Frayed Knot]

[Mark Parsons]

I think it was 87 when a front was stalled up through the western side of the uk, they kept saying it was going to move through but it took 2 weeks or more before it broke through! Like then there is a lot of cold to push away.

Edited February 25, 2018 by Mark Parsons

[Frosty hollows]

It's a beautiful day here too. Not experienced a blizzard since childhood and the prospect of finishing work at 9.30pm Thursday and walking out into one with a windchill of -15C doesn't fill me with joy! I've only a 10 minute walk but half of it is very exposed and in a common or garden gale is nasty particularly if I meet a car coming over the bridge in bad weather. Bedding down at eork isn't an option... there's no heating

Best take gin and a food bag in with me

[Mapantz]

GFS 12Z is worse than the 6Z. A few flakes of snow before turning to rain.

                            06Z                                                              12Z

  

[EllyTech]

They are saying that there is no rain on that low! People should pray that there's not an ice storm. That could do a whole lot of damage.

[khodds]

1 minute ago, Mapantz said:

GFS 12Z is worse than the 6Z. A few flakes of snow before turning to rain.

                            06Z                                                              12Z

  

I’m not buying this at all. It shows what it shows but the other models are climbing down. I imagine GFS will too soon.

[EllyTech]

4 minutes ago, Frosty hollows said:

It's a beautiful day here too. Not experienced a blizzard since childhood and the prospect of finishing work at 9.30pm Thursday and walking out into one with a windchill of -15C doesn't fill me with joy! I've only a 10 minute walk but half of it is very exposed and in a common or garden gale is nasty particularly if I meet a car coming over the bridge in bad weather. Bedding down at eork isn't an option... there's no heating

Best take gin and a food bag in with me

If its a blizzard, after a few hours (progged) it'll be true whiteout conditions with the amount of precipitation and longevity of the blizzard (I have experienced this). You won't see the bridge, or the road! Stay off the roads in vehicles.

Edited February 25, 2018 by EllyTech

[Mapantz]

1 minute ago, khodds said:

I’m not buying this at all. It shows what it shows but the other models are climbing down. I imagine GFS will too soon.

I'm buying it for my location. The MetO and BBC don't use the GFS data for their online forecasts, and they both show rain and 5°C  for here on Friday.

[EllyTech]

Anyway, I went out to get some last minute essentials. Like Branston pickle and Worcester Sauce.  Just in case I fancied some and not able to get any. 

[Bristawl Si]

I dont know enough about effects of major SSWs, but from reading posts on NW in last few years from likes of Chinio they absolutely play havoc with model output runs for days and weeks.

The forecast LP for later in the week (4/5 days away) could go absolutely anywhere. From barrelling through West Country thru Midlands and Northwards to not even barely touching the South Coast.

Yes....that extreme difference. Genuinely.

I've seen these systems be forecasted to hit 'us' head on...and then an updated forecast some 24 hours later takes it south in N France.

The track of the end of week Low will prob chop&change over next 3 days. That dartboard version from GFS will modify; they always do nearer the 'hit' time.

'We' will either 

(i) Get buried on Friday

(ii) Snow to rain

(iii) V little precip

OR

(iv) Nowt at all...Yes nothing, as it skirts into N France.

Pains me to write it, but wait til Thurs morning to see forecast.

[khodds]

3 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

I'm buying it for my location. The MetO and BBC don't use the GFS data for their online forecasts, and they both show rain and 5°C  for here on Friday.

Fair enough ?? Will see what happens. It’s already been a long week.. Friday seems a lifetime away!

[khodds]

1 minute ago, Bristle boy said:

I dont know enough about effects of major SSWs, but from reading posts on NW in last few years from likes of Chinio they absolutely play havoc with model output runs for days and weeks.

The forecast LP for later in the week (4/5 days away) could go absolutely anywhere. From barrelling through West Country thru Midlands and Northwards to not even barely touching the South Coast.

Yes....that extreme difference. Genuinely.

I've seen these systems be forecasted to hit 'us' head on...and then an updated forecast some 24 hours later takes it south in N France.

The track of the end of week Low will prob chop&change over next 3 days. That dartboard version from GFS will modify; they always do nearer the 'hit' time.

'We' will either 

(i) Get buried on Friday

(ii) Snow to rain

(iii) V little precip

OR

(iv) Nowt at all...Yes nothing, as it skirts into N France.

Pains me to write it, but wait til Thurs morning to see forecast.

Actually, the thought of it staying in France hasn’t been banded around much... oh my god imagine ???. Let’s not go there!!!

[Nights King]

Just now, khodds said:

Fair enough ?? Will see what happens. It’s already been a long week.. Friday seems a lifetime away!

Lets look forward to Tuesdays flurry fest first and see if we can squeeze an early covering out before the main meal arrives Thursday/Friday 

[khodds]

Just now, Nights King said:

Lets look forward to Tuesdays flurry fest first and see if we can squeeze an early covering out before the main meal arrives Thursday/Friday 

Hope so but I’ll be flipping starving by Thursday/Friday ?

[XLNC]

Temperature and dew points dropping now!