South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards

[Summer Sun]

ICON 06z zoomed in the cold air is starting to ease but still cold enough to give you guys a decent snow event probably blizzards for the likes of Dartmoor

 

[Leon1]

BBCs weather for the week ahead mentioned blizzards possible IN THE SOUTH! never thought i'd hear that: https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b09s8khj/weather-for-the-week-ahead-25022018

[offerman]

17 minutes ago, knocker said:

You are a wag offerman

Sorry for being bit of a thicky Knocker, can you elaborate please? Where’s the connection I only asked if you meant with your chart if cold snow was to continue.

[Nights King]

18 minutes ago, AWD said:

If we get the "blizzard" scenario the BBC forecast last night I would take that.  Couldn't care less if it is prolonged or not, too young to ever remember experiencing a proper blizzard.

At this rate it may be a few years yet.. lets hope your young enough to enjoy one 

[knocker]

2 minutes ago, offerman said:

Sorry for being bit of a thicky Knocker, can you elaborate please? Where’s the connection I only asked if you meant with your chart if cold snow was to continue.

Sorry offerman just me attempting to be humorous. The chart I posted showed a westerly jet and the very cold air no longer with us. But not to be taken too seriosly at this stage.

[Ashme]

Just been outside and man is that wind cold!! Also as it's coming from the East I can hear the wind whistling it's Easterly tune which you never hear when it comes from the SW. 

If we get blizzards on Thursday and it's gone by Sunday I'll be a happy man, two days off work to enjoy it with the kids  then resume as normal. Happy dayz ??

[AWD]

GFS 06z shows heavy snow overnight Thursday night for our region;

Before turning back to rain in southern coastal counties later in the day;

 

[Purplepixii]

Morning nutters! I’ve just woken up to 6 degrees and sunshine, eh? Time to catch up on everything, this better not be a bust coming!

[kent]

24 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

ICON 06z zoomed in the cold air is starting to ease but still cold enough to give you guys a decent snow event probably blizzards for the likes of Dartmoor

 

Thanks for your input Summer Sun its nice to think that someone so detached from this area is thinking of us.  I personally have not seen a single snow flake this winter as indeed winters past.  Its not so much for me but the Grandchildren who I would love the possibility of building a snowman with.  Memories like that are priceless.

[offerman]

13 minutes ago, knocker said:

Sorry offerman just me attempting to be humorous. The chart I posted showed a westerly jet and the very cold air no longer with us. But not to be taken too seriosly at this stage.

NOTE

Never rely on my chart reading skills .....:/) 

 

❄️??☄️☀️??⚡️⛈☔️⛈????

?

[TropicThunder]

It's gonna be a nerve wracking week tracking that low on Thursday/Friday, if it comes off it could give us an epic event the likes of which many of us won't have seen in our lifetimes! Even if it meant a thaw soon afterwards I'd snap your hand off for that right now.

In the meantime plenty to keep us interested in the next few days, so let's just enjoy as these synoptics are so rare for our part of the world. 

[Steve Caiels]

14 minutes ago, AWD said:

GFS 06z shows heavy snow overnight Thursday night for our region;

Before turning back to rain in southern coastal counties later in the day;

 

GFS 06z shows heavy snow overnight Thursday night for "some of" our region!  Looking very marginal for SW Devon and even worse for Cornwall isn't it?  With my very unknowledgeable eyes, just comparing charts and posts, I'm still holding out for Snow during Thursday, but turning to rain in the evening in costal SW Devon.

 

Although the Met Office weather forecast yesterday was pretty inspiring

Edited February 25, 2018 by Steve Caiels

[dec10snow]

4 minutes ago, offerman said:

NOTE

Never rely on my chart reading skills .....:/) 

 

❄️??☄️☀️??⚡️⛈☔️⛈????

?

Remember Knocker is an (evil shhh) mildie, so what’s good to him is horrible for us coldies 

[khodds]

I’m off the skulk in the short range thread now. The mad thread is doing my head in!! The short range is where it’s at people. Let’s forget about the end of the week, we have three days at least to get through first. 

[Isleofwightsnowgal74]

Why have I got a baaaad feeling that the Isle of Wight will just get some light flurries?? Better than nothing I know but I’d love just to have a day of laying snow just to throw a couple of snowballs maybe even build a small snowman!! Doomed down here on the bloody coast! 

[Purplepixii]

Right, caught up with MaD thread and all anyone’s talking about is the end of the week. What’s happened to Mon-Thur for our area - has it changed/bust?

[EllyTech]

42 minutes ago, Nights King said:

I did think last night when I watched that epic weather for the week ahead on bbc website which stated blizzards in south and all to be snow etc etc oh thats it then it will all fall apart from here on out.. 

I just hope met office have got this prolonged cold spell correct and we are just reacting to wobbles in output unnecessarily.  

They'd have dropped that like a hot potato by now, if there were little chance of it happening. In fact, their super computer would not even factor it in as snow. Mixing out will occur, but as many of us suspect, much more slowly than GFS and others would have it. Snow is going to dump its load prior to that though, and that's what counts. Not looked this morning yet, am trying to catch up with posts here.

One thing though (imagine-away the amazing synoptics and model runs we've had to date) if Friday's prospects popped up suddenly and was better than marginal for a snow event, we'd all be going nuts; a potential that could bring the South to a standstill. I'm still looking forward to Tuesday/Wednesday tbh.

Got to just below -2 here last night. Pretty sheltered though. Bright sunshine this morning tells a porky about how bone chilling it actually is out there right now.

[AWD]

1 minute ago, Steve Caiels said:

GFS 06z shows heavy snow overnight Thursday night for "some of" our region!  Looking very marginal for SW Devon and even worse for Cornwall isn't it?  With my very unknowledgeable eyes, just comparing charts and posts, I'm still holding out for Snow during Thursday, but turning to rain in the evening in costal SW Devon.

True.  But it's all very close.  You can see below, even by Saturday afternoon, the colder surface air on the GFS 06z Op is only just north of the M4;

Considering that chart is for nearly a week away, it would only take a small microscale shift in the LP track to keep more of our region on the cold side.

It really is far from a done deal with regards to both the potential heavy snowfall for Thurs/Fri & what happens afterwards.

[Nick Croker]

Think i'll just wait for a few days yet before deciding what may happen on Thursday/Friday, looks like if the low tracks slightly further south we could be buried and at this range i still see that as a possibility. BBC weather guy said the "B" word again this morning when their website/app is showing sleet/rain! 

[MidnightSnow]

So another day passes and still all looking good.   I always dread coming on here to see downgrades and backtracks but every day it seems to get better.

So as it stands I'm sure most of us will bank what is showing on the charts. In an ideal situation do we want to see the low shift further south slightly? To get the south coasts involved?

[BARRY]

1 minute ago, Purplepixii said:

Right, caught up with MaD thread and all anyone’s talking about is the end of the week. What’s happened to Mon-Thur for our area - has it changed/bust?

5 day's in model watching things will change

[EllyTech]

5 minutes ago, MidnightSnow said:

So another day passes and still all looking good.   I always dread coming on here to see downgrades and backtracks but every day it seems to get better.

So as it stands I'm sure most of us will bank what is showing on the charts. In an ideal situation do we want to see the low shift further south slightly? To get the south coasts involved?

NO, we banked a few days ago and now everyone has eyes on that low because its the only facet that the models have moved/will potentially mess up the prospects next weekend.

[Singularity]

  

The most positive model I can find for tomorrow's snow potential in our regions is HIRLAM. 

I believe this is associated with the Met Office in some way? Could be wrong though.

Interesting that out east, the cold front in the early hours holds together until it reaches land and then disintegrates, but coupled with much colder air behind, it does still look to give an extra boost to the instability right across to western parts for the daytime.

Would like to see that organised feature correct south please... 

 

Generally, Monday looks the least snowy of the days for our region, with Tuesday stepping things up a gear and Wednesday holding quite steady at least in the morning.

Wednesday afternoon through to at least midday Thursday could be really interesting in the far south at least, as the flow may turn sufficiently south of east for a moisture feed off the Channel, which with very cold surface layers could well mean a situation akin to the Feb 2009 event that brought frequent heavy showers of a soft hail and snow mix.

Then comes the frontal snow potential, currently indicated by most models to be from later Thu through to early Friday but with a risk of freezing rain for a time before it clears. Not convinced yet that it will be so fast though - ICON shows us what my instincts still shout for and it sure looks spectacular! Only at 60% confidence at the mo though!

[Isleofwightsnowgal74]

Totally confused tonight!! Is the iow still in with a chance of substantial snow next week or is that now unlikely?? Or is it just a Friday that’s marginal?? 

[Singularity]

2 minutes ago, Isleofwightsnowgal74 said:

Totally confused tonight!! Is the iow still in with a chance of substantial snow next week or is that now unlikely?? Or is it just a Friday that’s marginal?? 

Tonight?

Now that is confused! Ha - yes you've got a good chance through to at least Thursday I would say. We'll see with respect to Friday .