South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards

[Jayfromcardiff]

Is the snow still on guys? Any idea if the model runs have improved?

 

Cheers

[Leon1]

Some guy on the mad thread said it was 'game over for the south' and i was sk confused because thurs/fri is ages away and there will be so much changing?

[karlos1983]

Not a done deal yet, when there is spread there is hope!!

[knocker]

Next Sunday we could be blessed, truly blessed.

 

[AWD]

2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Not a done deal yet, when there is spread there is hope!!

To be fair, both those EC ens & the GEFS are unanimous in bringing less cold Atlantic air over our region during the weekend.

Whether it is a blip or not remains to be seen.  Interesting dip towards the end there.

For now though, the trend is definitely for an mix out of the cold 850hpa airmass on Saturday.

Still nearly a week of lampost watching for many of us, with potentially a day off work/school on Friday IF the more wintry 0z model output verifies.

[Kreftysoton]

Im in southampton and now seeing rain friday double digits nxt weekend.. what is going on?? Anyone? Saw people on main thread saying game over for the south. How can it change so quick? 

[festivalking]

Reasons to be cheerful record breaking start of the week with snow showers for many Tuesday onwards. Thurs Fri yes a warm up but not before hours of snow. Would of bitten your arm off for this after numerous non events this season.

[Uncle Gargy]

Even if it all melts by Saturday. At least we get to enjoy some snow falling over the next few days.

I just hope it doesn't end in an ice storm. That is very nasty stuff!

[That ECM]

9 minutes ago, Kreftysoton said:

Im in southampton and now seeing rain friday double digits nxt weekend.. what is going on?? Anyone? Saw people on main thread saying game over for the south. How can it change so quick? 

If you go on the met for Friday you will see Southampton rain, Eastleigh heavy snow. Kind of tells you how close this is to call. In fact impossible this far out. A slight movement in track at it could go all rain or all snow. Is it to early for a brandy

[offerman]

25 minutes ago, knocker said:

Next Sunday we could be blessed, truly blessed.

 

You mean the cold and snow continuing knocker? 

[karlos1983]

21 minutes ago, AWD said:

To be fair, both those EC ens & the GEFS are unanimous in bringing less cold Atlantic air over our region during the weekend.

Whether it is a blip or not remains to be seen.  Interesting dip towards the end there.

For now though, the trend is definitely for an mix out of the cold 850hpa airmass on Saturday.

Still nearly a week of lampost watching for many of us, with potentially a day off work/school on Friday IF the more wintry 0z model output verifies.

Yes, I mean in terms of it being cold enough for snow on the south coast, the weekend warm up is happening, I’m trying to avoid an snow- rain event!

[Jayfromcardiff]

23 minutes ago, AWD said:

To be fair, both those EC ens & the GEFS are unanimous in bringing less cold Atlantic air over our region during the weekend.

Whether it is a blip or not remains to be seen.  Interesting dip towards the end there.

For now though, the trend is definitely for an mix out of the cold 850hpa airmass on Saturday.

Still nearly a week of lampost watching for many of us, with potentially a day off work/school on Friday IF the more wintry 0z model output verifies.

What's it looking like this morning mate? Just checked the METO website and I'm down for light snow 3pm Thursday then heavy snow from 9pm Thursday until 9am Friday lol followed by more snow.

[AWD]

2 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

What's it looking like this morning mate? Just checked the METO website and I'm down for light snow 3pm Thursday then heavy snow from 9pm Thursday until 9am Friday lol followed by more snow.

Depends on what your expectations are mate.

Still very much on for a significant snow event later on Thursday overnight into Friday.  Some models give us more snow than others but most would give enough for a "snowman".

After Friday, much more uncertain.  Some models bring in less cold Atlantic air meaning a thaw on Saturday & some models keep more northern & western parts of our region cold at the surface well into the weekend meaning any snowcover could last a couple of days.

Like I said, all very uncertain.  Let's just get the snow falling first before we worry about the inevitable thaw.

All being said, snow showers possible anywhere Tuesday & Wednesday followed by an increasing signal for significant snow on Thursday/Friday.

[Jason74]

12 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Yes, I mean in terms of it being cold enough for snow on the south coast, the weekend warm up is happening, I’m trying to avoid an snow- rain event!

Indeed. If we here on the south coast were offered an all day snow event on Friday followed by a quick warm up in temps on the Saturday. Then I'd bank that now and would be satisfied heading into spring. 

[Summer Sun]

UKMO still showing the potential for a major snow event in this part of the UK Late Thursday and into Friday

You can see just how quickly it develops

[karlos1983]

8 minutes ago, Jason74 said:

Indeed. If we here on the south coast were offered an all day snow event on Friday followed by a quick warm up in temps on the Saturday. Then I'd bank that now and would be satisfied heading into spring. 

Yes absolutely!! 

[philglossop]

Ok regarding next Friday.

 

The upper temperatures here are still positive this morning and throughout the day.

 

Ive just had the misfortune to go out. It’s bitter out there and this is ‘mild’ sector. +3. But you can guarantee if that front hits we’ll get something.

[karlos1983]

Right I’m off to Wembley, have a good day everyone ???‍♂️

[snowysouth]

I'd be happy with a light dusting at the moment. We haven't had any at all. 

[Andy Bown]

Back in the day we never worried what would happen after it snowed because 6 days in advance we didn't really know it was going to. We just woke up on cold, windy, frosty, sunny mornings and enjoyed winter hoping it would lead to snow!!

[Jayfromcardiff]

20 minutes ago, AWD said:

Depends on what your expectations are mate.

Still very much on for a significant snow event later on Thursday overnight into Friday.  Some models give us more snow than others but most would give enough for a "snowman".

After Friday, much more uncertain.  Some models bring in less cold Atlantic air meaning a thaw on Saturday & some models keep more northern & western parts of our region cold at the surface well into the weekend meaning any snowcover could last a couple of days.

Like I said, all very uncertain.  Let's just get the snow falling first before we worry about the inevitable thaw.

All being said, snow showers possible anywhere Tuesday & Wednesday followed by an increasing signal for significant snow on Thursday/Friday.

I might sound dumb but I'd rather just get a load of snow even if it's going to melt a day or so later. The idea will be to get out in it whilst it's falling and settling and not waiting for it to stop if that makes sense.

Edited February 25, 2018 by Jayfromcardiff

[AWD]

06z ICON for rush hour Friday morning;

 

[Nights King]

I did think last night when I watched that epic weather for the week ahead on bbc website which stated blizzards in south and all to be snow etc etc oh thats it then it will all fall apart from here on out.. 

I just hope met office have got this prolonged cold spell correct and we are just reacting to wobbles in output unnecessarily.  

[knocker]

39 minutes ago, offerman said:

You mean the cold and snow continuing knocker? 

You are a wag offerman

[AWD]

3 minutes ago, Nights King said:

I did think last night when I watched that epic weather for the week ahead on bbc website which stated blizzards in south and all to be snow etc etc oh thats it then it will all fall apart from here on out.. 

I just hope met office have got this prolonged cold spell correct and we are just reacting to wobbles in output unnecessarily.  

If we get the "blizzard" scenario the BBC forecast last night I would take that.  Couldn't care less if it is prolonged or not, too young to ever remember experiencing a proper blizzard.