South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards

[AWD]

For those interested in the potential heavy snowfall event at the end of the week, the overnight runs all give a period of heavy, significant snowfall for our region sometime between lunchtime Thursday & lunchtime Friday.

0z ICON;

0z EC Det;

0z GFS;

No access to 0z UKMO PPN charts, but again, it would deliver a window of heavy snowfall away from the south coast;

Some models, ala UKMO 0z bring in milder Atlantic air quickly afterwards & some keep enough cold air in place, ala EC Det 0z, to maintain snowcover for a day or 2.  Too much divergence for detailed micro-analysis here.

But the Thursday/Friday, heavy, disruptive snowfall is very much still on this morning.

[wiltshire weather]

Certainly glad to see the Metro forecast is still much unchanged so that's a good sign.

GFS output is still insistent on bringing it all to an end come Friday evening but ECM seems to have backed off a little from yesterday's run and looks like the snow event on Friday might still happen and the cold hangs on.

Edited February 25, 2018 by wiltshire weather

[knocker]

The ecm 850mb 5 day temp contour and anomaly

[John88B]

Hi AWD,  thanks for the update. After the possible snowfall at the erd of the week is it in anyway possible that temperatures similar to this coming week could continue, so only a slow thaw and the chance of more snow?

I s'pose I'm talking about the front stalling over our area then being pushed off southwards again and the cold winning out.

[khodds]

I’m a bit disappointed with the temperatures overnight so far. Not got below -1.5 here yet. Though could possibly be down to where my sensor is placed (wooden garden fence NE facing).

well, this is it!! The day the interest starts... who’s excited?!

[knocker]

Cloudy this morning with low level Sc, around 2000ft, again drifting in from the south east which does keep the temp up, currently 4C

[Nights King]

Have to see if met office change longer outlook today or hold firm regarding the cold holding on.  

[wiltshire weather]

Have to say running through the various short range models that the first part of this week is looking quite good for snow showers / disturbances across the SW peninsula.

Unfortunately I live in the far East of our region so that doesn't include me at this point, seem to be in the sweet spot for missing everything!

[jtay]

7 minutes ago, khodds said:

I’m a bit disappointed with the temperatures overnight so far. Not got below -1.5 here yet. Though could possibly be down to where my sensor is placed (wooden garden fence NE facing).

well, this is it!! The day the interest starts... who’s excited?!

Hell yeah! And it's a cracking start to the day, so we're off to Snowdrop day at Jane Austen's place.

Rock 'n' Roll...

[Frosty hollows]

Morning all from a bright, sunny Oxfordshire. Only managed -3c last night. Hell, only slept with one duvet.

[Dorsetbred]

 Morning all, currently a clear sunny start with wall to wall blue after an overnight low of -1.8C, now at 0.9C. Light breeze from the east encouraging some windchill.

[Frosty hollows]

1 minute ago, wiltshire weather said:

Have to say running through the various short range models that the first part of this week is looking quite good for snow showers / disturbances across the SW peninsula.

Unfortunately I live in the far East of our region so that doesn't include me at this point, seem to be in the sweet spot for missing everything!

I'm further east than you and we have a weather warning in place for snow so dont lose hope

[AWD]

19 minutes ago, John88B said:

Hi AWD,  thanks for the update. After the possible snowfall at the erd of the week is it in anyway possible that temperatures similar to this coming week could continue, so only a slow thaw and the chance of more snow?

I s'pose I'm talking about the front stalling over our area then being pushed off southwards again and the cold winning out.

Unlikely that temps will maintain the level of coldness we are looking to receive over the next few days.  All 0z model data suggests a moderation of the upper level cold through Thursday/Friday due to the Iberian LP coming into play for us.

This looks likely, based on the 0z data xto provide significant snowfall around Thursday/Friday time.  Models then diverge on the route it takes once it hits the south of England.

Some take it NW towards Ireland, allowing milder Atlantic air to sneak into Southern UK on Friday, meaning a quick thaw to any lying snow.  Equally some elongate it more, disrupting against the cold block, keeping parts of the SW & West Country in cold enough air to maintain snowcover well into the weekend.  It is impossible at this range to say what is correct.

Suffice to say, the period Thursday - Saturday needs more analysis than just looking at 850hpa temps re snowfall.

Green 850hpa temps across the south on Friday;

Noooooooooooo.........

But wait;

Still very cold for mid afternoon away from Cornwall.

All we know at this stage is the cold air will get moderated, to what degree we don't know.  There will be a period of heavy snow for most of us, how long it lasts we don't know.

Liverpool will win the premier league, when we don't know.

Edited February 25, 2018 by AWD

[Leon1]

Soooo last night was just an outlier... IT BETTER HAVE BEEN? i guess its looking a bit better now

[SNOW CRYSTAL]

Well having just stepped outside and felt the windchill, I can't say as I'm too sorry that my daughter's rugby match has been cancelled this morning. Luckily the other team wimped out. ?❄?❄

Have to say all this will it, won't it, malarkey for the end of the week is starting to drive me crazy but if we don't get 5 foot snow drifts before winter is out, I would still mark it up as better than the last few years in my neck of the woods. Sun, frost and wind. What's not to like?

[karlos1983]

just seen Models, looking better for end of the week then. Good step back, hopefully more to follow. ?

Edited February 25, 2018 by karlos1983

[caz100]

Did you used to be able to see where people lived when they wrote a comment, because its harder to known where you are when talking snow. From the middle down to the bottom of Cornwall. Snow can plop right in the middle. Im sure it used to say name and area.

 

[knocker]

Just now, SNOW CRYSTAL said:

Well having just stepped outside and felt the windchill, I can't say as I'm too sorry that my daughter's rugby match has been cancelled this morning. Luckily the other team wimped out. ?❄?❄

Have to say all this will it, won't it, malarkey for the end of the week is starting to drive me crazy but if we don't get 5 foot snow drifts before winter is out, I would still mark it up as better than the last few years in my neck of the woods. Sun, frost and wind. What's not to like?

Frost and wind.

[karlos1983]

-0.9c dp -5.5c

just let the dog out and it feels pretty raw out! 

[AWD]

4 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

so are we back on track, because right now i’m In quite a bad way and  could do with a lift......

Edit: just seen Models, looking better for end of the week then. Good step back, hopefully more to follow. ?

Yes, further southwards corrections would be welcome as, especially for you on the South Coast, it's still looking rather messy.

For those inland, up towards the M4, there is a little more breathing space.

[ThundersnowDays]

-3 this morning and another frost. Another clear morning which is nice. 

[karlos1983]

My station record DP is -6.2c, that will go tonight quite easily!

[AWD]

My Meto App has me down for heavy snow and temps of 0c on Friday.

On Saturday it forecasts cloudy with temps maxing out at 3c.

I would bank that right now.

[karlos1983]

2 minutes ago, AWD said:

Yes, further southwards corrections would be welcome as, especially for you on the South Coast, it's still looking rather messy.

For those inland, up towards the M4, there is a little more breathing space.

 That’s certainly not out of the question, few runs to go yet! Cheers 

 

[SNOW CRYSTAL]

Yep Knocked  we've got frost on the cars this morning, sun, a bit of cloud and a good breeze. A perfect start to a lazy Sunday.

 

Edited February 25, 2018 by SNOW CRYSTAL