South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards

[Zephyr]

Just now, Jayfromcardiff said:

Is that the met office model or something? Sorry not sure what each model relates to.

Here's the info on Mr MOGREPS https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/weather/ensemble-forecasting/mogreps

[Mapantz]

Nice to see the snow icon appear on weather underground's forecast, on my website, for Tuesday night. It's 100% correct though.. 'chance snow' teehee

[EllyTech]

Just now, Mapantz said:

Nice to see the snow icon appear on weather underground's forecast, on my website, for Tuesday night. It's 100% correct though.. 'chance snow' teehee

I want snow for you more than I want it for me! You have been so patient for some.

[Nights King]

Im back online! 

Paul should really feed that hamster better 

What have I missed, im off to check mod thread. 

[Frosty hollows]

1 hour ago, Catacol said:

Last post tonight - run ECM from 96 to 168h. It's crazy fast in terms of shifting pressures. I dont buy it. Move on to tomorrow.

Night all.

Thanks for the updates. Saves me trying to find decent posts like yours on the mad thread without losing the will to live

[dancing daisy]

1 minute ago, Nights King said:

Im back online! 

Paul should really feed that hamster better 

What have I missed, im off to check mod thread. 

Can I come? ?

[Frosty hollows]

1 minute ago, Nights King said:

Im back online! 

Paul should really feed that hamster better 

What have I missed, im off to check mod thread. 

Don't bother. @catacol has summed it all up on here 

[Nights King]

3 minutes ago, dancing daisy said:

Can I come? ?

Really, honey moon period ended years ago we dont do that sort of thing now... 

Edited February 24, 2018 by Nights King

[dancing daisy]

3 minutes ago, Nights King said:

Really, honey moon period ended years ago we dont do that sort of thing now... 

It’s like asking Stevie Wonder to pass me the salt...no point! ???

I might pop into MAD tomorrow for shits and giggles 

[Nights King]

5 minutes ago, Gibby said:

 

I posted in mad thread by mistake.. must be drunk 

A lot of respect but I hope your wrong! 

[Frosty hollows]

27 minutes ago, EllyTech said:

Bob has a lot to answer for! Seriously, lets re-remind. The GFS always reverts to mild when other solutions are beyond it. What is disappointing is other models in agreement to shift the low. My gut says its all wrong, like you say. I'm sure it will break down before the fortnight is through, but it will be progressive over a couple of days at least. We might get rain which reverts right back to snow. We might get an ice storm! We might get a polar low! Who knows right now?

My own feeling, fwiw, is we'll see an almighty storm of sorts. Almost like a summer breakdown in reverse. If we've had enough snow it could lay around for some time, though. I don't think temperatures will return to normal quickly, but we may be bumped out of arctic temps by it. #gutfeeling

 

[Zephyr]

18z EURO4 +48 

[Nights King]

Right im off to bed lets hope and pray the morning runs get back in line 

Ive invested too much into this cold spell to see it fizzle out like this 

[Frosty hollows]

I'm hopping on the polar express, late I know.  I think next week will be baltic. There's a strong possibility of snow even north of the m4 . But for certain it will be bloody cold, even without wind chill. I'm going to put it out there and say I might see sub -10. The week will end with a blizzard/ ice storm and temps will recover slightly post storm, but not enough for a significant thaw. Spring will arrive on March 27th at 2.46pm.Now , just enjoy the week ahead

[matt111]

1 minute ago, Frosty hollows said:

I'm hopping on the polar express, late I know.  I think next week will be baltic. There's a strong possibility of snow even north of the m4 . But for certain it will be bloody cold, even without wind chill. I'm going to put it out there and say I might see sub -10. The week will end with a blizzard/ ice storm and temps will recover slightly post storm, but not enough for a significant thaw. Spring will arrive on March 27th at 2.46pm.Now , just enjoy the week ahead

So as the models try and throw us off course you finally come on board? 

[Frosty hollows]

12 minutes ago, matt111 said:

So as the models try and throw us off course you finally come on board? 

Oh, but of course.  My gut is superior to any model 

[Frosty hollows]

20 minutes ago, Nights King said:

Right im off to bed lets hope and pray the morning runs get back in line 

Ive invested too much into this cold spell to see it fizzle out like this 

It'll all be good 

[jethro]

Evening, just caught up with todays shenanigans, kind of wish I hadn't now and had just gone to bed oblivious to the doom predicted for the end of the week. Someone just posted an ensemble temperature graph for the end of the week, it looks like Sidney has thought 'sod that, it's been cold long enough' and then gone bonkers with the felt tips. Bloody squirrels.

On the subject of squirrels.....I reckon our lack of snow down here in recent years has less to do with climate change and more to do with the grey buggers, look at the facts and figures, as their numbers have grown, our winters have warmed and snow has got rarer and rarer, they're clearly the problem.  When birds fly in a flock they take turns to lead so others get to save their energy, when long tailed tits roost at night, they take it in turn to be on the cold outside, I reckon those grey demons take it in turn to link arms along the M4 and keep the SW warm. Knocker's their spy, tipping them off.

 

[SLEETY]

hopefully big blizzard for you guys in the Sw end of the week,models slowly getting the track of this low correct.,used to holiday in Devon every Easter and summer in my childhood great memories,and got caught out in blizzard end of April 81 I think 

go through the archives of years gone by when bitterly cold Siberian air is over the UK and low pressure wants to move up from the SW ,nearly every time it ends up with the SW Being hit hard first before spreading across to other Southern counties before moving away S or the low pressure just stalls across the SW like 1978 in Feb and march 1891 bringing huge amounts of snow before fading S  or the low pressure fails to make it far enough north in the first place.

 

Met office seem to favour it spreading over the entire S before retreating away,hope this happens be historic for everyone then.most exciting week of model watching ever

 

 

Edited February 25, 2018 by SLEETY

[knocker]

Well I can report that yesterday Sidney was tucked up with his nuts and the cold was taking it's toll although the black headed gulls were getting their Spring plumage

[Jet Streak]

Morning, when i was in Poland last week i found this useful radar which shows the wintry weather across the whole of Europe may be of use !! https://meteoserwis24.pl/radary-opadow/

[eddy88888]

Well looking at the latest runs it looks like its game on again for friday, looks like that mild sector people were worried about has gone, looks cold to me, i think that low on friday could bring alot of snow for the south coast and southern areas happy days, what do you guys think?  

[divadee]

So I go to bed early, then the baby wakes up 4 times overnight and I come in here this morning and it's all doom and gloom. Keep the faith people.*

 

 

 

*disclaimer. I'm trying really really hard to keep the faith but it's ebbing away like a thawing snow. 

[Nights King]

9 minutes ago, divadee said:

So I go to bed early, then the baby wakes up 4 times overnight and I come in here this morning and it's all doom and gloom. Keep the faith people.*

 

 

 

*disclaimer. I'm trying really really hard to keep the faith but it's ebbing away like a thawing snow. 

It looks quite good this morning. Think last night was knee jerk to couple of over progressive runs coupled with a few drinks and past history. 

All good and polar express rolls on. 

[Argyle1980]

Keep the faith guys, it’s slightly better than last nights offerings. There will be more subtle southward corrections over the coming days and I’m sure it’ll be completely different come Tuesday eve.

 

Wayno