South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards

[Bazray]

11 minutes ago, Catacol said:

True - I did almost predict that wobble. :-) I'm not sure how models work with the built in algorithms... but observationally they seem to pick up on faint signals and then blow them out of proportion before returning to a more averaged scenario later. Genuinely I dont know why that is the case - but it happens. The current quick shift to warmer air to the north may be another case of a signal overblown before they settle back to a half way house scenario.

Half way house would be very good indeed - nice stalling low right over the SW :-)

My take on it, if you put 2+2 into a calculator the result will always be 4. Computers / Calculators / Algorithms  are clinical and correct when dealing with facts.

problem is with weather, is there are never any firm facts to enter into the calculator, a little change here or there can have massive implications in the end result, hence why we can never predict the FI with any real degree of certainty. So thats my excuse why I will ignore the last outputs until they show what I want (about 9 feet of powder snow)

Anyway thanks Cat, whatever happens been a real education reading ypur posts, Thank You 

 

 

 

 

 

[EllyTech]

Well, at some point next week the MetO have to make a call on that blizzard/damp squib, and due to the potential severity, I wouldn't want to call it - not from this stand point anyway.

[Mapantz]

Whatever you do, do not look at the 18Z OP lol

[jessandjon]

Just now, Mapantz said:

Whatever you do, do not look at the 18Z OP lol

Too late ???

[Wilxy]

Awful 18z for are region!

[Zephyr]

And we're back!! 

[matt111]

Anyone here?

Apart from @Zephyr

Edited February 24, 2018 by matt111

[festivalking]

We're back and based in that last run I wish we wernt!! Nightmares tonight. Sweet dreams all!

[Richard Fisher]

GFS 18 must be an outlier. METO still going with major snow event Friday. Bring it on.

[matt111]

1 minute ago, inghams85 said:

Can't tell you how i know but the MOGREPS moves the low across the channel as a much weaker affair with blizzards on the Northern edge. This is the basis of the Met forecasts. The other lows follow on the same track hence the mention of continued easterly winds following week. Calm down people. 

Just read this post and forget the rest of the posts in there... 

[EllyTech]

GFS 6 hour overnight blizzard then daylight comes and its all gone, wet.

[EllyTech]

Just now, matt111 said:

Just read this post and forget the rest of the posts in there... 

And aside from the output presented/available, what you say makes so much more sense to me and yet is in complete conflict with all the products I'm looking at.

[Marcus_surfer]

1 minute ago, EllyTech said:

GFS 6 hour overnight blizzard then daylight comes and its all gone, wet.

I'll take it

[matt111]

Just now, EllyTech said:

And aside from the output presented/available, what you say makes so much more sense to me and yet is in complete conflict with all the products I'm looking at.

I didn't say it. I don't mind taking the credit for it though? 

[wiltshire weather]

So what should have been a buzzing Saturday night in here looking forward to a special week weather wise has been well and truly party pooped by the latest model runs!

I'm hoping for some better output in the morning but at least the Meto still seem quite bullish about the cold spell continuing at the moment, and at least my Meto app is still showing snow for Friday!

[EllyTech]

1 minute ago, matt111 said:

I didn't say it. I don't mind taking the credit for it though? 

You did say, just look at that post! So I agree with youuuuu !

[nettie]

Just got in from work to find the site had crashed again lol

Then to read that the 18z is the end to our fun 

I still think we will do OK out of this beast  

[Mapantz]

3 minutes ago, EllyTech said:

GFS 6 hour overnight blizzard then daylight comes and its all gone, wet.

I wouldn't complain at that if the GFS OP is the outcome, because it gives me all rain, and a lot of it too! lol

I'm starting to think that something isn't quite right. I remember reading a post on another forum, some years ago, that some models struggle with low pressures in these set ups, that come from around the BoB. I'm wondering if we're seeing it happen here? Obviously, the MetO have far more resources to hand than us. So, it leaves me with a small sense of optimism - it isn't done yet.

[EllyTech]

2 minutes ago, wiltshire weather said:

So what should have been a buzzing Saturday night in here looking forward to a special week weather wise has been well and truly party pooped by the latest model runs!

I'm hoping for some better output in the morning but at least the Meto still seem quite bullish about the cold spell continuing at the moment, and at least my Meto app is still showing snow for Friday!

Actually, you'd think we weren't going to get any snow, wouldn't you. Lets count our blessings. I knew we shouldn't focus on that breakdown (I've been sucked in). There is a whole week to get though yet!. 

[Zephyr]

 

Well this has escalated quickly on the back end of the 18z 24c 850s making there way up from the south 

Edited February 24, 2018 by Zephyr

[EllyTech]

2 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

I wouldn't complain at that if the GFS OP is the outcome, because it gives me all rain, and a lot of it too! lol

I'm starting to think that something isn't quite right. I remember reading a post on another forum, some years ago, that some models struggle with low pressures in these set ups, that come from around the BoB. I'm wondering if we're seeing it happen here? Obviously, the MetO have far more resources to hand than us. So, it leaves me with a small sense of optimism - it isn't done yet.

Bob has a lot to answer for! Seriously, lets re-remind. The GFS always reverts to mild when other solutions are beyond it. What is disappointing is other models in agreement to shift the low. My gut says its all wrong, like you say. I'm sure it will break down before the fortnight is through, but it will be progressive over a couple of days at least. We might get rain which reverts right back to snow. We might get an ice storm! We might get a polar low! Who knows right now?

[Jayfromcardiff]

P1ss take, everytime it's rain south of the M4! No matter how much cold we get in, it always manages to rain.

[matt111]

So it appears MOGREPS is still strongly onboard with the extended cold theme. 

[Jayfromcardiff]

2 minutes ago, matt111 said:

So it appears MOGREPS is still strongly onboard with the extended cold theme. 

Is that the met office model or something? Sorry not sure what each model relates to.

[matt111]

Just now, Jayfromcardiff said:

Is that the met office model or something? Sorry not sure what each model relates to.

I don't know a lot about it but I think they base a lot of their text forecasts on it.