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South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards


BlueHedgehog074

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Posted
  • Location: Ilminster, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Thundersnow
  • Location: Ilminster, Somerset
3 minutes ago, Bazray said:

Hope you kept the reciept for the Quad bike lol

 

Luckily I still haven't bought one but I now know of one just round the corner from me should I need it for a day??

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Posted
  • Location: Somerset.
  • Location: Somerset.
9 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Yes - running my various links quickly tonight I'm struck by the speed with which the models have suddenly decided to move things on. I suspect it is over progressive. Also dont think the storm track will so quickly recover its standard latitude - have you noticed that temperatures on average in the arctic are currently what we would normally expect in June? So much warmth there means an awful lot of cold heading south, and inevitable storm track impact.

However sad to see the SSW end 3 days earlier than forecast a few days ago

Im not really very knowledgeable about weather Cat other than what I have picked up from this forum in the brief periods I visit (usually when snow is forecast) But yes I did notice that the temps have increased rapidly in the artic, almost a role reversal. Did the second phase of warming not kick in recently and any idea of what impact that may have later down the line?

must say also will be amazed if the models have not been over progressive, it just does not make sense to me that a little low can fight off such a cold pool. Time will tell I guess. 

Edited by Bazray
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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
4 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Yes - running my various links quickly tonight I'm struck by the speed with which the models have suddenly decided to move things on. I suspect it is over progressive. Also dont think the storm track will so quickly recover its standard latitude - have you noticed that temperatures on average in the arctic are currently what we would normally expect in June? So much warmth there means an awful lot of cold heading south, and inevitable storm track impact.

However sad to see the SSW end 3 days earlier than forecast a few days ago

Are you expecting the tropospheric vortex to fully reform before the final warming or would it be safe to assume the trop vortex won't fully reform this season now and due to it's weakened state, the final warming might have more "rewards" to it compared to what a typical final warming would have on a normal, fully running trop vortex?

If the latter, then won't this increase the chances of further, notably cold weather throughout March due to the cold air already around lower latitudes because of the recent SSW, making it easier for heights to remain or form around various places within the Arctic circle?

Obviously, this doesn't prevent a WB NAO setting up as per some 12z NWP output tonight.

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Posted
  • Location: Dousland, South Dartmoor 205 m/asl
  • Weather Preferences: The fabled channel low
  • Location: Dousland, South Dartmoor 205 m/asl
33 minutes ago, Nights King said:

What are your current feelings on the cold snowy spell going into the week after AWD? You think we just looking at a one week boom then bust or you expect it to sustain into the following week or so like met office extended?

Gut  feeling suggests boom to bust. To be frank at this time if year after this winter of marginal messes and near misses I'd take a 12 hour blizzard then rain!

Edited by festivalking
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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
Just now, festivalking said:

Gut  feeling suggests boom to bust. To be frank at this time if year after this winter of marginal messes and near misses I'd take a 12 hour blizzard then rain!

Be positive.  You should get a 14 & a half hour blizzard at least.  Maybe 15hr in Princetown.  Lol.

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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
Just now, Bazray said:

Im not really very knowledgeable about weather Cat other than what I have picked up from this forum in the brief periods I visit (usually when snow is forecast) But yes I did notice that the temps have increased rapidly in the artic, almost a role reversal. Did the second phase of warming not kick in recently and any idea of what impact that may have later down the line.

must say also will be amazed if the models have not been over progressive, it just does not make sense. Ti e will tell.

The vortex remains in serious distress - so while the reversal is set to end a bit early it never recovers to anything significant and indeed starts to slow down again by 6 - 10 March. What's left of it set to shift from Canada to Asia in the next 10 days.

What this means for us, in the context of such high arctic temperatures, a signal for continued blocking, and cold air in situ is a bit tricky. I suspect the vortex relocating to asia, with very little signal for an atlantic recovery, means we could see yet more cold filter towards us from a northerly. But in order to cash in fully we need the pattern of next week to hold on long enough that the reinforcements from the north meet a cold pool still in place. Feels a bit like the "Bridge Too Far" operation - cold over the UK battling to preserve its position while the tanks attempt to arrive before warm air overruns the position.

It will be a fine run thing, but the greatest asset at the moment is the MetO text. This same text forecast actually picked up on the potential Thurs/Fri blizzard a long time ago - and the fact that it is holding to a cold forecast suggests to me that MOGREPS is less keen than the publicly available models (that are not run at such high resolution as MOGREPS) to see systems from the south come back north. 

I confidently stated that there wont be a breakdown on Friday. Sticking to that... but a little less happy than I was yesterday with that prediction. But these sorts of wobbles are part of the forecasting fun - I was a bit concerned a week ago that the really cold air would miss us to the south as the models flirted with that idea for a day or so. They soon dropped it. Hopefully the same again here.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
27 minutes ago, EllyTech said:

Perhaps (whimsically) somebody could explain to me how such a massive blocking high such as we'll have in position over  us by Monday is ever going to be shoved aside by a weak Low, so easily? Watching the animation, something just looks wrong. And no, that's now my wishful thinking as I would be quite content with a week's cold snap then get spring under way so that I can do some seed sowing and planting.

Well it wasn't shoved aside because the blocking high obligingly moves west to NE Canada which allows the energy leaving the eastern seaboard ti slip the trough in through the back door, so to speak.:shok:

ecm_eps_z500a_nh_3.thumb.png.b4e9126a09f70d2868c95cf4d9fd802e.pngecm_eps_z500a_nh_7.thumb.png.1d5c8ebf53cd7eaf9285b1eac3ce8769.png

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Posted
  • Location: Dousland, South Dartmoor 205 m/asl
  • Weather Preferences: The fabled channel low
  • Location: Dousland, South Dartmoor 205 m/asl
6 minutes ago, AWD said:

Be positive.  You should get a 14 & a half hour blizzard at least.  Maybe 15hr in Princetown.  Lol.

Exactly ?

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Posted
  • Location: Somerset.
  • Location: Somerset.
3 minutes ago, Catacol said:

The vortex remains in serious distress - so while the reversal is set to end a bit early it never recovers to anything significant and indeed starts to slow down again by 6 - 10 March. What's left of it set to shift from Canada to Asia in the next 10 days.

What this means for us, in the context of such high arctic temperatures, a signal for continued blocking, and cold air in situ is a bit tricky. I suspect the vortex relocating to asia, with very little signal for an atlantic recovery, means we could see yet more cold filter towards us from a northerly. But in order to cash in fully we need the pattern of next week to hold on long enough that the reinforcements from the north meet a cold pool still in place. Feels a bit like the "Bridge Too Far" operation - cold over the UK battling to preserve its position while the tanks attempt to arrive before warm air overruns the position.

It will be a fine run thing, but the greatest asset at the moment is the MetO text. This same text forecast actually picked up on the potential Thurs/Fri blizzard a long time ago - and the fact that it is holding to a cold forecast suggests to me that MOGREPS is less keen than the publicly available models (that are not run at such high resolution as MOGREPS) to see systems from the south come back north. 

I confidently stated that there wont be a breakdown on Friday. Sticking to that... but a little less happy than I was yesterday with that prediction. But these sorts of wobbles are part of the forecasting fun - I was a bit concerned a week ago that the really cold air would miss us to the south as the models flirted with that idea for a day or so. They soon dropped it. Hopefully the same again here.

Well you have called it with breathtaking accuracy so far. Far as I am aware you called this SSW event many weeks ago and remember when you said it may go South, then the models almost did, so if you say it wont break down on Friday it probally wont lol. Yes hopefuly just another wobble.

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Posted
  • Location: Fareham, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Severe Weather events
  • Location: Fareham, Hampshire
13 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

Eyes down for the pub run. I'm expecting a slight backtrack and the low to be slightly south of where it's modelled to be as of earlier runs.

I’m starting my 2nd gin in preparation!

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Posted
  • Location: Cheltenham, Gloucs.
  • Location: Cheltenham, Gloucs.
4 minutes ago, knocker said:

Well it wasn't shoved aside because the blocking high obligingly moves west to NE Canada which allows the energy leaving the eastern seaboard ti slip the trough in through the back door, so to speak.:shok:

ecm_eps_z500a_nh_3.thumb.png.b4e9126a09f70d2868c95cf4d9fd802e.pngecm_eps_z500a_nh_7.thumb.png.1d5c8ebf53cd7eaf9285b1eac3ce8769.png

Pffthhh, Canada? That old chestnut of nicking the PV? Well I guess that reverts the usual late winter synoptic conditions to type. :angry: So all our 'special' conditions are wiped out by a follow-up SSW?

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Posted
  • Location: Work: Near Glasto Home: near Puriton
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny or cold and snowy. Nothing inbetween.
  • Location: Work: Near Glasto Home: near Puriton
3 minutes ago, Purplepixii said:

I’m starting my 2nd gin in preparation!

I’m off the chain tonight.

im drinking tea!!  :spiteful:

Wish I was working at the prison though. TV is pants!

Edited by khodds
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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
18 minutes ago, AWD said:

Are you expecting the tropospheric vortex to fully reform before the final warming or would it be safe to assume the trop vortex won't fully reform this season now and due to it's weakened state, the final warming might have more "rewards" to it compared to what a typical final warming would have on a normal, fully running trop vortex?

If the latter, then won't this increase the chances of further, notably cold weather throughout March due to the cold air already around lower latitudes because of the recent SSW, making it easier for heights to remain or form around various places within the Arctic circle?

Obviously, this doesn't prevent a WB NAO setting up as per some 12z NWP output tonight.

For me the vortex is done for the season - it will regain a bit of shape post reversal, but none of its bite. Overall impact will be a lot more cold air around, and little in the way of a dominant westerly pattern. Cold March looks odds on.

WB -NAO is the danger as we head through the start of March. This was always the case with the pattern in place. The canadian vortex has been so heavily hammered that we have ended up with TOO GOOD a pattern - the signal for retrogression that we so desperately seek at other times, may just move too fast to keep our block in place until we see more cold air arrive from the N/NE. We will see. Hopefully not.

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Posted
  • Location: Cheltenham, Gloucs.
  • Location: Cheltenham, Gloucs.
14 minutes ago, dancing daisy said:

Has it all gone tits up?

Dont make me read through 10 pages of posts by negative Nellys please. ⛄️

Stay chilly. I'm still fighting the newly suggested prognosis for us. I might win! :girl_devil:

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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
10 minutes ago, Bazray said:

Well you have called it with breathtaking accuracy so far. Far as I am aware you called this SSW event many weeks ago and remember when you said it may go South, then the models almost did, so if you say it wont break down on Friday it probally wont lol. Yes hopefuly just another wobble.

True - I did almost predict that wobble. :-) I'm not sure how models work with the built in algorithms... but observationally they seem to pick up on faint signals and then blow them out of proportion before returning to a more averaged scenario later. Genuinely I dont know why that is the case - but it happens. The current quick shift to warmer air to the north may be another case of a signal overblown before they settle back to a half way house scenario.

Half way house would be very good indeed - nice stalling low right over the SW :-)

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Posted
  • Location: Cheltenham, Gloucs.
  • Location: Cheltenham, Gloucs.
4 minutes ago, Catacol said:

True - I did almost predict that wobble. :-) I'm not sure how models work with the built in algorithms... but observationally they seem to pick up on faint signals and then blow them out of proportion before returning to a more averaged scenario later. Genuinely I dont know why that is the case - but it happens. The current quick shift to warmer air to the north may be another case of a signal overblown before they settle back to a half way house scenario.

Half way house would be very good indeed - nice stalling low right over the SW :-)

Thank you for all of that.

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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl

Last post tonight - run ECM from 96 to 168h. It's crazy fast in terms of shifting pressures. I dont buy it. Move on to tomorrow.

Night all.

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Posted
  • Location: Work: Near Glasto Home: near Puriton
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny or cold and snowy. Nothing inbetween.
  • Location: Work: Near Glasto Home: near Puriton
1 minute ago, Catacol said:

Last post tonight - run ECM from 96 to 168h. It's crazy fast in terms of shifting pressures. I dont buy it. Move on to tomorrow.

Night all.

Thanks for your updates ? much appreciated - until tomorrow ??

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
19 minutes ago, EllyTech said:

Pffthhh, Canada? That old chestnut of nicking the PV? Well I guess that reverts the usual late winter synoptic conditions to type. :angry: So all our 'special' conditions are wiped out by a follow-up SSW?

Here you go animated for you

 

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