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South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards


BlueHedgehog074

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Posted
  • Location: Witney, West Oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Anything apart from grey and mild!
  • Location: Witney, West Oxfordshire

Not sure why some are getting in a flap....next week looks brilliant regardless how the week ends!

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Posted
  • Location: Somerset.
  • Location: Somerset.

Correct me if i'm wrong here, but am I correct in thinking that if tonights charts verify (worst case scenario) then that could lead to a situation of the moist air from the atlantic hitting the frigid european air that is already in place and readily turning to snow, potential for blizzards - if that is the last hurah of the winter and then we move into spring, that is actually a pretty decent consolation prize right?

Edited by Bazray
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Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL

So our blizzard is now marginal.. maybe turning to rain!? :closedeyes:

Please oh please lets see a reversal on the pub run! 

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Posted
  • Location: Hampshire Snow Hoper
  • Location: Hampshire Snow Hoper

On a bad day South Today get the weather incorrect 12 hours out,Countryfile normally tell you that after Weds you should consult the website for updates,so how is it that next Friday is nailed on to be mild/thaw/whatever,the last snow I had here in 2010,on two separate occasions,ie the night before,the forecast was mild air moving up and rapid thaw commences,woke on both occasions to see it pelting down with snow,not saying it will be like that,but its nearly 150 hours away.

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Posted
  • Location: Poole, BH14
  • Location: Poole, BH14

Summers coming :yahoo: Just goes to show what an utter farce and waist of time it is to look at model runs. Im going back to old school ways by sticking your head out the window. Enjoy the cold snap everyone don't think it will be much for my location anyway. Hope you all have a great summer I'm looking forward to getting back on my boat and summer fun. Going to hang up model watching now the unknown is more fun. Take care all. 

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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
7 minutes ago, Bazray said:

Correct me if i'm wrong here, but am I correct in thinking that if tonights charts verify (worst case scenario) then that could lead to a situation of the moist air from the atlantic hitting the frigid european air that is already in place and readily turning to snow, potential for blizzards - if that is the last hurah of the winter and then we move into spring, that is actually a pretty decent consolation prize right?

That's spot on.

EC Det 12z, whilst probably too quick & progressive amongst it's ens, still brings parts of our region a 24/36 hour period of heavy, disruptive snowfall with blizzard like conditions.

Bear in mind this is the worst 12z Det run tonight too, along with it being the worst case scenario in it's own ens.

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Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
2 minutes ago, AWD said:

That's spot on.

EC Det 12z, whilst probably too quick & progressive amongst it's ens, still brings parts of our region a 24/36 hour period of heavy, disruptive snowfall with blizzard like conditions.

Bear in mind this is the worst 12z Det run tonight too, along with it being the worst case scenario in it's own ens.

Thanks for cheering me up somewhat after just getting in from work i was like :shok:

Maybe the pub run will steady everyones nerves just like a good trip to the pub will help mine :drunk-emoji:

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Posted
  • Location: Somerset.
  • Location: Somerset.
15 minutes ago, Nights King said:

Thanks for cheering me up somewhat after just getting in from work i was like :shok:

Maybe the pub run will steady everyones nerves just like a good trip to the pub will help mine :drunk-emoji:

Cheered Me up too - thanks AWD :D 

and lets not forget the met office with thier world class team of experts and multi-million pound computers are still on board the Siberian express - It seems any mad spell of weather almost comes as a bit of a surprise. The weather it seems can make a fool  of us all.

Guess the term it changes like the weather is very apt here, lets hope we get the best case scenario!!!

 

Edited by Bazray
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Posted
  • Location: Work: Near Glasto Home: near Puriton
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny or cold and snowy. Nothing inbetween.
  • Location: Work: Near Glasto Home: near Puriton

I have a good feeling it’ll all be ok. Don’t worry folks  8)

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Posted
  • Location: Somerset.
  • Location: Somerset.
2 minutes ago, AWD said:

 To try and summarise this week in simplistic terms.

Monday - mainly dry across our region.  Bitterly cold in a raw easterly wind.  Isolated snow flurry along English Channel coasts later in the day.  For most of us, sunny but very cold with temps just 1c - 4c.

Tuesday - even colder than Monday.  Bitterly cold, exasperated by an extensive windchill.  Starting dry for most of us after a hard overnight frost, but as we head into the afternoon, snow showers will start to enter our region from the east.  A more clustered area of showers may traverse our region from the NE, heading SW late into the day and overnight, providing a small covering for a lucky few of us.  An ice day for many if us.

Wednesday - the coldest day of this cold spell.  Bitterly cold with a bitter windchill.  A covering of snow may greet a lucky few of us from overnight snow shower activity.  The day will start dry and bright but snow showers will quickly traverse our region bringing yet another small covering to some of us.  This is the day snow showers will be most frequent across our region.  An ice day for many of us.

Thursday - another bitterly cold day, although not quite as cold as the previous couple of days.  A hard frost will greet most of us.  The day will be much drier than previous days for most of us as snow shower activity decreases ahead of frontal activity approaching from the S/SW.  Later in the day, some heavy frontal snowfall may encroach into southern most districts of our region.  Temps for most, 0c - 3c.

Overnight Thursday and into Friday - obviously due to the timescale involved, confidence decreases here.  Current indications favour a spell of significant, disruptive snowfall for many of us in gale force E/SE'ly winds leading to blizzard like conditions for some.  The snowfall could lead to localised large accumulations causing immense travel and infrastructure problems.  Later in the day, snowfall may turn marginal, or even to rain across southern most counties of our region as maritime air starts to mix out the cold continental airmass of the week.  Temps 0c in the north of the region, 2 - 5c in the south of the region.

?Thank you very much for that ?

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Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
4 minutes ago, AWD said:

 To try and summarise this week in simplistic terms.

Monday - mainly dry across our region.  Bitterly cold in a raw easterly wind.  Isolated snow flurries along English Channel coasts later in the day.  For most of us, sunny but very cold with temps just 1c - 4c.

Tuesday - even colder than Monday.  Bitterly cold, exasperated by an extensive windchill.  Starting dry for most of us after a hard overnight frost, but as we head into the afternoon, snow showers will start to enter our region from the east.  A more clustered area of showers may traverse our region from the NE, heading SW late into the day and overnight, providing a small covering for a lucky few of us.  An ice day for many of us.

Wednesday - the coldest day of this cold spell.  Bitterly cold with a bitter windchill.  A covering of snow may greet a lucky few of us from overnight snow shower activity.  The day will start dry and bright but snow showers will quickly traverse our region bringing yet another small covering to some of us.  This is the day snow showers will be most frequent across our region.  An ice day for many of us.

Thursday - another bitterly cold day, although not quite as cold as the previous couple of days.  A hard frost will greet most of us.  The day will be much drier than previous days for most of us as snow shower activity decreases ahead of frontal activity approaching from the S/SW.  Later in the day, some heavy frontal snowfall may encroach into southern most districts of our region.  Temps for most, 0c - 3c.

Overnight Thursday and into Friday - obviously due to the timescale involved, confidence decreases here.  Current indications favour a spell of significant, disruptive snowfall for many of us in gale force E/SE'ly winds leading to blizzard like conditions for some.  The snowfall could lead to localised large accumulations causing immense travel and infrastructure problems.  Later in the day, snowfall may turn marginal, or even to rain across southern most counties of our region as maritime air starts to mix out the cold continental airmass of the week.  Temps 0c in the north of the region, 2 - 5c in the south of the region.

What are your current feelings on the cold snowy spell going into the week after AWD? You think we just looking at a one week boom then bust or you expect it to sustain into the following week or so like met office extended?

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Posted
  • Location: Chipping Sodbury
  • Location: Chipping Sodbury
1 hour ago, AWD said:

Worth noting, the Meto SW forecast for Tuesday - Wednesday now mentions "locally disruptive accumulations".

Looks like they area forecasting an increase in snow shower activity midweek across the SW now.

IMG_20180224_191020.thumb.png.d557e918f2d98c66e2a23eea505310f8.png

:)

That’ll be the showers projected to hit Devon and Cornwall on Wednesday. Check out the yellow warning for that area

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Posted
  • Location: Somerset.
  • Location: Somerset.
9 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Hmmm - call a spade a spade... but charts and indications tonight are less good. SSW suddenly set to end by tomorrow, and strat forecasts very quick to move the upper forcing for the north atlantic high to a very west based position by week's end. I would imagine that op runs are putting 2 and 2 together on this basis.

It looks a very swift transition to me in the runs - curiously swift. Not time tonight to post any specific charts - but fingers crossed it is a signal that is being picked up and moved too quickly... and that the MetO text, updated only a few hours ago, means that MOGREPS has stuck to its guns and modelled the speed of change more accurately. More tomorrow - hopefully models will swing back.

Hopefully the Cat is rignt here, lets not forget the models don't make the weather, they just predict it based on a bunch of man  made algorithms - the scope for the models to be wrong is a lot more than the met office who give thier forecasts based from models but crucially with a human interpretation.

Edited by Bazray
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Posted
  • Location: Caerphilly
  • Location: Caerphilly
27 minutes ago, AWD said:

That's spot on.

EC Det 12z, whilst probably too quick & progressive amongst it's ens, still brings parts of our region a 24/36 hour period of heavy, disruptive snowfall with blizzard like conditions.

Bear in mind this is the worst 12z Det run tonight too, along with it being the worst case scenario in it's own ens.

Could see a foot of snow before everything's done on Friday.

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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
1 minute ago, Nights King said:

What are your current feelings on the cold snowy spell going into the week after AWD? You think we just looking at a one week boom then bust or you expect it to sustain into the following week or so like met office extended?

Not sure mate but too be honest I don't really care at the moment.  Plenty enough interest to keep tabs on in this coming week, albeit with the main snow threat focused on Friday for our region.

For week 2, if I had to go there, I would say we will lose the cold upper airmass for a while as our Scandinavian HP becomes a Greenland HP.  This would allow Maritime air into our region for a while but I can see another blocked pattern setting up in the long term bringing another spell of below average temps to NW Europe.  However, we will probably be in mid March by then, and I wouldn't expect it to be as cold as what is forecast this coming week so debatable whether, for mid March, it will be cold enough to deliver anything wintry this far south.  Personally speaking, I am ready for the first "storm chasing" sagas to commence then.

Anyway, like I said, much to be assessed over the coming week.

Worth remembering, if the Atlantic air does win out at the end of the week (tonight's runs says it will), then with the depth of cold we are forecast to get, it will highly likely go win out with a bang.

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Posted
  • Location: Cheltenham, Gloucs.
  • Location: Cheltenham, Gloucs.

Perhaps (whimsically) somebody could explain to me how such a massive blocking high such as we'll have in position over  us by Monday is ever going to be shoved aside by a weak Low, so easily? Watching the animation, something just looks wrong. And no, that's now my wishful thinking as I would be quite content with a week's cold snap then get spring under way so that I can do some seed sowing and planting.

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Posted
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winter, warm/hot summer with the odd storm thrown in
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
17 minutes ago, AWD said:

Later in the day, snowfall may turn marginal, or even to rain across southern most counties of our region as maritime air starts to mix out the cold continental airmass of the week.

Great summery of the upcoming week. Just hope the quoted sentence is removed by the end of the week. 

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Posted
  • Location: Trimdon, County Durham
  • Location: Trimdon, County Durham
52 minutes ago, SN0W SN0W SN0W said:

Looking increasingly like a cold snap rather than a spell:sorry:

I don't think anything at that range is yet set in stone. A trend, yes. However, more model runs needed. 

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Posted
  • Location: Ilminster, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Thundersnow
  • Location: Ilminster, Somerset
9 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

Could see a foot of snow before everything's done on Friday.

Nooooooooo!! That means I gotta put my mankini on and go out in it ????

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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
10 minutes ago, Bazray said:

Hopefully the Cat is rignt here, lets not forget the models don't make the weather, they just predict it based on a bunch of man  made algorithms - the scope for the models to be wrong is a lot more than the met office who give thier forecasts based from models but crucially with a human interpretation.

Yes - running my various links quickly tonight I'm struck by the speed with which the models have suddenly decided to move things on. I suspect it is over progressive. Also dont think the storm track will so quickly recover its standard latitude - have you noticed that temperatures on average in the arctic are currently what we would normally expect in June? So much warmth there means an awful lot of cold heading south, and inevitable storm track impact.

However sad to see the SSW end 3 days earlier than forecast a few days ago

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