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South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards


BlueHedgehog074

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Posted
  • Location: Fareham, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Severe Weather events
  • Location: Fareham, Hampshire

I officially love Paul, his putting-in-place of "terrier" has made my day! :rofl:

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Posted
  • Location: Work: Near Glasto Home: near Puriton
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny or cold and snowy. Nothing inbetween.
  • Location: Work: Near Glasto Home: near Puriton

Oh god what’s with ECM 120....?!

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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

Taking the UKMO 12z, GFS Op 12z & EC Det 12z at face value, I'm in a rather sweet position for some substantial snowfall at the end of next week.

However, I doubt any of the above models will verify exactly at face value.  :nonono:

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Posted
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
  • Weather Preferences: cold snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
6 minutes ago, khodds said:

Oh god what’s with ECM 120....?!

Seems ok at the moment 

24D472D6-3785-42AD-848C-7CB4945C26B0.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

I think, from this point onwards, i'm not going to look at either the GFS or ECM output. I'm going to stick at the high-res out to 48 hours and take each day as it comes. The bottom line is, if you're  as far South as me, then things don't look quite as rosy. It's time like this that I wished I was a bit further inland. I don't often say that lol

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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
Just now, Mapantz said:

I think, from this point onwards, i'm not going to look at either the GFS or ECM output. I'm going to stick at the high-res out to 48 hours and take each day as it comes. The bottom line is, if you're  as far South as me, then things don't look quite as rosy. It's time like this that I wished I was a bit further inland. I don't often say that lol

Yes, EC Det not great for English coastal counties.  Mendips/Salisbury plain northwards should get away with white rather than wet on this run.

Uncomfortable viewing for our region though.

On a positive note for members further south in the region, we are still talking 120+ hours away to the event, so ample time for microscale favourable changes yet.

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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
4 minutes ago, MidnightSnow said:

From an IMBY perspective, the ECM 120 is an upgrade right?

I wouldn't say upgrade, but we get away with it, yes!

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Posted
  • Location: Fareham, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Severe Weather events
  • Location: Fareham, Hampshire
5 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

I think, from this point onwards, i'm not going to look at either the GFS or ECM output. I'm going to stick at the high-res out to 48 hours and take each day as it comes. The bottom line is, if you're  as far South as me, then things don't look quite as rosy. It's time like this that I wished I was a bit further inland. I don't often say that lol

I'm tempted to stop reading things full stop and just wait for sh*t to happen. AFTER I've read what looks like an awesome post by "Bring Back 1962-63".

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Posted
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
  • Weather Preferences: cold snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,

Oh well enjoy this week, if you take the models  at face value  ( and a few are)it will all be over by the weekend :rofl:

as the saying goes “more runs needed”

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

For our region as a whole, that ecm is a shocker!!! Glad I’m off out tonight after that!!

hopefully it’s an outlier! Certainly doesn’t look right to me, but maybe I’ve got my rose tinted’s on.

still Mon-weds fun yet anyway

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Posted
  • Location: Hampshire Snow Hoper
  • Location: Hampshire Snow Hoper

My apologies in advance,i see that there are uncertainties regarding the end of next week,but this cold spell is due to commence from tomorrow,ok cold with wind chill but to start with at least mainly dry,so are there possibilities Tues to Thurs still,im feeling relaxed and sane at the moment,dont really fancy looking amongst the stuff in the Mad Thread to find out.

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Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
Just now, karlos1983 said:

For our region as a whole, that ecm is a shocker!!! Glad I’m off out tonight after that!!

hopefully it’s an outlier! Certainly doesn’t look right to me, but maybe I’ve got my rose tinted’s on.

still Mon-weds fun yet anyway

It is basically following GFS runs. Ukmo not as good as yday either. Trend one suspects. 2 weeks of severe cold?! Hmmm......

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Posted
  • Location: Isle of Wight
  • Location: Isle of Wight

Literally don’t care if the cold spell clears Saturday!!

Just want a decent amount of snow this week that lays then I’ll be happy until next winter ☺️?☃️?❄️

I’m still not convinced we will see it down here tho! ???

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Posted
  • Location: Dousland, South Dartmoor 205 m/asl
  • Weather Preferences: The fabled channel low
  • Location: Dousland, South Dartmoor 205 m/asl

Double downer lose the ruggers and the ECM has spoiled the party. Let's see where it sits in the ensmbles first though. 

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

Bored of all this low nonsense at the end of the week, it's detracting from what's coming up in the next few days.

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Posted
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Most(see in interests section.)
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL
1 hour ago, khodds said:

 

That’s amazing! You never hear anything about UFOs anymore. In the 90s it was everywhere but now.. nothing. I have a fascination with all things paranormal 

Thanks Khodds. They are everywhere , some visible some invisible , just incredible the things i have witnessed.

Closet encounter was one that came up to us within 15 metres. No noise from it and then shot up in to space after being in front of us doubling its size!

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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

My Meto App now has me down for heavy snow all day Friday.  First time I have had that forecast so far.

Personally speaking, I would let winter go & welcome in spring so long as I got a 24/36 hour blizzard like snow storm as some output shows tonight.

It will be all change tomorrow anyway, the seesaw keeps seesaw-ing.

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