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South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards

BlueHedgehog074

By BlueHedgehog074
in Regional

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jethro Accomplished

jethro

Posted
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and lots of it or warm and sunny, no mediocre dross
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl
Posted

Well the beast isn't properly here yet but I've just been outside and can say with great authority, it's bloody freezing out there already. Oh and the two inches of water in a bucket is still frozen solid from this morning. Off to do 'the' shop now, hubby's coming, wonder is now the time to say something or just silently fill the trolley and convince him I've lost the plot?

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Dorsetbred Maestro

Dorsetbred

Posted
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
Posted (edited)

What a crackin day, yea OK a bit of nip in the wind but wall to wall sunshine and 7C, fantastic stuff, makes a change from cloudy and wet, that's for sure. As to the MAD thread who cares, (and will stay away from here until after next week) purely to avoid peoples' high & lows. It is what it is let's enjoy it, it's great, let's not get hung up on will it or wont it, who cares, if it doesn't that's the weather and b*gger all you can do to change it., just enjoy the experience..

 

Edited by Dorsetbred
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Zephyr Community Regular

Zephyr

Posted
  • Location: Yate, South Gloucestershire
  • Location: Yate, South Gloucestershire
Posted (edited)

EURO4 out to Sunday 12z can see the beast incoming.

18022512_2_2312.gif18022512_2_2312.gif

 

Inline with the 12z GFS +48 to be fair.

48-7UK.GIF?23-12

Edited by Zephyr
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OldBloke Explorer

OldBloke

Posted
  • Location: Dartmoor (954 AMSL)
  • Location: Dartmoor (954 AMSL)
Posted

Sure enough the latest update from our Met Office has for 1st March, the Azores low now at 980 mb (filling) and sited just off Portugal. The cold air to the east should block the eastward migration somewhat and push it northeastwards towards the UK. A dry and cold Europe will keep moisture levels down I'm afraid and not help it deepen.

The Met Office 00.00z report on this low will be interesting. Of course we can track this low pressure on radar and see how accurate their tracking forecast is.

Another forecast low in the Atlantic is already at 980 mb for the same period and will follow the same route and will, I think, fill also. A lot of dry air around.

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted (edited)

Ok thanks we get the picture, you’re  not onboard!!:nonono:

meanwhile!!

B9447C35-D2C4-432A-AD5A-F5E4ED03A7B5.thumb.png.76c54c013ca9531ad541b29b9ad57c4c.png9DDA7986-8D8A-4871-BC8B-3EB45A3F719A.thumb.png.8111047297e088f6d830cdd3b856629b.png 

Opportunities becon!!

Edited by karlos1983
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Ashme Contributor

Ashme

Posted
  • Location: Ilminster, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Thundersnow
  • Location: Ilminster, Somerset
Posted
17 minutes ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

Ski trousers ... Should they be tight or a bit of a baggier fit? Tight on the thighs when bending down otherwise ok. 

IMG_20180223_174220062.jpg

IMG_20180223_174239264.jpg

IMG_20180223_174434696.jpg

What do they look like from behind!! ??

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OldBloke Explorer

OldBloke

Posted
  • Location: Dartmoor (954 AMSL)
  • Location: Dartmoor (954 AMSL)
Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, Zephyr said:

EURO4 out to Sunday 12z can see the beast incoming.

18022512_2_2312.gif18022512_2_2312.gif

The winds at 850 hPa (5,000 ft) have to turn over the weekend. They are very slack at the moment and the 500 hPa (18,000 ft) winds are West to East. Fingers crossed they will turn and the "Beast" gets to us, proper job.

Edited by OldBloke
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OldBloke Explorer

OldBloke

Posted
  • Location: Dartmoor (954 AMSL)
  • Location: Dartmoor (954 AMSL)
Posted
2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Ok thanks we get the picture, you’re  not onboard!!:nonono:

meanwhile!!

B9447C35-D2C4-432A-AD5A-F5E4ED03A7B5.thumb.png.76c54c013ca9531ad541b29b9ad57c4c.png9DDA7986-8D8A-4871-BC8B-3EB45A3F719A.thumb.png.8111047297e088f6d830cdd3b856629b.png 

Opportunities becon!!

Not on board yet Karlos, but I do have a boarding pass. I'm not looking at the North Sea "lake" affect or even the Channel "lake" effect which might well introduce snow into parts of the South West, but the prospect of more meaningful snow for the Southern Counties of the UK. 

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, OldBloke said:

The winds at 850 hPa (5,000 ft) have to turn over the weekend. They are very slack at the moment and the 500 hPa (18,000 ft) winds are West to East. Fingers crossed they will turn and the "Beast" gets to us.

Seriously.... are you doubting cross model agreement? Are you the oracle or something? The beast is coming! :D

Edited by karlos1983
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Purplepixii Enthusiast

Purplepixii

Posted
  • Location: Fareham, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Severe Weather events
  • Location: Fareham, Hampshire
Posted

Finally caught up in here with you nutters, am still ambivalent about next week, never have I wanted to know one way or the other as much as I have these past couple of days! Time to grab some food and skim-read the MaD thread, let's hope the forum doesn't crash like it did last night! 

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OldBloke Explorer

OldBloke

Posted
  • Location: Dartmoor (954 AMSL)
  • Location: Dartmoor (954 AMSL)
Posted
1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

Seriously.... are you doubting cross model agreement? Are you the oracle or something? The beast is coming! :D

Like I said Karlos, the toe of the "Beast" is here, but to get the body of the "Beast" then the winds at 500 hPa have to change direction. 

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matt111 Maestro

matt111

Posted
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winter, warm/hot summer with the odd storm thrown in
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
Posted
4 minutes ago, Purplepixii said:

Finally caught up in here with you nutters

Only just noticed? :crazy:

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OldBloke Explorer

OldBloke

Posted
  • Location: Dartmoor (954 AMSL)
  • Location: Dartmoor (954 AMSL)
Posted

Karlos, click on the link and you will see the problem at the moment. as you will see there is a cold blob to the South of the UK but not part of the "Beast". I've circled the problem area.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/500hPa/overlay=temp/orthographic=1.84,52.05,850/loc=21.964,53.720

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jy Community Regular

jy

Posted
  • Location: Hampshire Snow Hoper
  • Location: Hampshire Snow Hoper
Posted

The bird table has been under siege,tits everywhere,Nobby the Nuthatch still sulking,but has tried the sunflower seeds,my major concern is that a Great Bustard has been spotted by villagers and if that bugger lands on the bird table its game over and feeding off the grass only afterwards.I didn't realise that Robins were such territorial little devils,they wont let another one on the table,more trouble than a warm front approaching the Mad thread.

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knocker Maestro

knocker

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
Posted (edited)
23 minutes ago, OldBloke said:

The winds at 850 hPa (5,000 ft) have to turn over the weekend. They are very slack at the moment and the 500 hPa (18,000 ft) winds are West to East. Fingers crossed they will turn and the "Beast" gets to us, proper job.

You are quoting 1800 charts for Sunday so i don't know where you get W-E on the 500mb chart from. They are actually north easterly as the upper trough squeezes the ridge.

gfs_z500_uv_eur_10.thumb.png.9f0017815fe0653341958588b06ebaa2.png

 

Edited by knocker
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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted
11 minutes ago, OldBloke said:

Karlos, click on the link and you will see the problem at the moment. as you will see there is a cold blob to the South of the UK but not part of the "Beast". I've circled the problem area.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/500hPa/overlay=temp/orthographic=1.84,52.05,850/loc=21.964,53.720

I’m good thanks, but keep up the good work! ?

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stevofunnelcl Aficionado

stevofunnelcl

Posted
  • Location: Torrington, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: storms - of the severe kind
  • Location: Torrington, Devon
Posted

Steve Murr, has appeared around here, now i'm getting interested, getting into the reliable time frame, but i've never pressed F5 so often for a while

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khodds Experienced

khodds

Posted
  • Location: Work: Near Glasto Home: near Puriton
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny or cold and snowy. Nothing inbetween.
  • Location: Work: Near Glasto Home: near Puriton
Posted
15 minutes ago, EllyTech said:

Do we have to land? I'm trying to catch up on umpteen pages.

NO. I refuse to disembark. No amount of negativity is going to make me.

5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ECM 120 is a sight for the people of the SW 

streamers galore in -16c air

Places like cornwall - any landmark jutting out will get battered

27071E6B-2590-4513-9222-5649FCECF03E.thumb.png.85ef5ad04fd8ad01993af4b7e2fff9ea.png

At last... a beacon of hope in the darkness  :rofl:.

Its been a long week. Christ on a bike. I think the rollercoaster broke somewhere. I don’t know if I’m coming or going. :help:

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Nights King Accomplished

Nights King

Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
Posted

Well I have just returned home... the beast is coming but is the snow?

update please... :hi:

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