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Model output discussion - here comes the beast!


Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

We also have a special post SSW cold spell discussion open here:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89358-ssw-related-cold-spell-will-it-wont-it/

Thank you!

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Early guidance forewarning of next weeks weather was issued earlier on, and this has been further enhanced with extended outlooks in bulletins. AFAIK (comms not being my area) public agencies and majo

Come on those looking for the breadown before the major cold and snow has begun You will be very lucky if that is the correct word to see this in ANY winter in the rest of your lives I would sugg

Microscale detail absorbing an awful lot of attention on here, when in reality it is a waste of emotion. The macroscale pattern is now fixed - it will not change significantly now for the start of nex

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16 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Now we're getting closer to the action, the ARGEPE will become increasingly useful. Here's what it says for snow cover by first thing Tuesday. A dusting at least for most south of the border, an inch or two for some

arpegeuk-45-102-0.png?23-05

Without being to mch IMBY i would have expected a better ppn profile across kent given this setup.. !

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Just now, craigore said:

Without being to mch IMBY i would have expected a better ppn profile across kent given this setup.. !

It’s true but I think the totals and locations are still not 100%? Are the models struggling with this? Maybe? 

 

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Just now, Crashlanding said:

It’s true but I think the totals and locations are still not 100%? Are the models struggling with this? Maybe? 

 

Agree, the positions of the snow are simply based on the latest run. In basic terms, they're showing the feature but almost certainly not exactly where it will be. Still to soon to get hung-up on the meso-scale details.

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I wouldn't take too much notice of ppn predictions at 3+ days out...it will literally come down to the smallest fraction of change in wind direction as to where showers get blown in from. One of those that won't get nailed down until a day away. EVERYWHERE will be at risk, but as others have said, some will see shower after shower pile through....others will see a dusting, and others will miss out. All part of the UK snow lottery!

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11 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Thats indeed how its looking @frosty..

We could be going WELL INTO MARCH ON THIS ONE NOW!!!!

Pretty bonkers isn’t it? Just incredible to see these charts so close and all the big guns loaded with snow. (ECM, UKMO and GFS)

At this rate the poor Easter bunny will be arriving frozen solid...

 

164B95C4-FAA4-41C3-9AD2-3B4E02378CA5.png

Edited by Mr Frost
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Quite a north south divide in the ensembles long term indicates some 'milder' air coming into play for the south, up north the ensembles barely get above the -10 line until well out in FI.

 

High risk, high reward?

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Looks like NE England could see the highest snowfall totals next week, screen grab of 00z EC snow accumulation indicating up to 10 inches day 7 / 00z Fri 2nd March 

2D761940-D7FB-4112-BB2F-B131F24A0772.thumb.png.9d84ae52c96cff4d637f4615ca131d6e.png

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1 minute ago, Nick F said:

Looks like NE England could see the highest snowfall totals next week, screen grab of 00z EC snow accumulation indicating up to 10 inches day 7 / 00z Fri 2nd March 

2D761940-D7FB-4112-BB2F-B131F24A0772.thumb.png.9d84ae52c96cff4d637f4615ca131d6e.png

Does that show most places seeing something, even if it's just a dusting?

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1 minute ago, Nick F said:

Looks like NE England could see the highest snowfall totals next week, screen grab of 00z EC snow accumulation indicating up to 10 inches day 7 / 00z Fri 2nd March 

2D761940-D7FB-4112-BB2F-B131F24A0772.thumb.png.9d84ae52c96cff4d637f4615ca131d6e.png

Can I ask the experts a question if possible about this chart. If you look you can see that even though - obviously - the east gets battered, there is a strip running from north Wales, across the north Midlands, NW England. I have seen this area in many a precipitation forecast the past week. Why is it there? As the Pennines seem to stop or lower precipitation further north? Is it a gap in the high ground? Just wondering as IMBY it would affect me but just wondering why that strip seems to always be there?

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I think its safe to add here...

snow accum/total/precip- charts are even more non-worthy at present given the crazy dynamics!!!

I'll personaly refrain from posting any...until nowcast-situ rears.

Its an open book in regards snowfall/ground accumulations!!

and moreso geographical pin-pointing.

edit;

Not to mention these charts struggle to a large degree factoring in-advection/streamer types/inland forcing.

Edited by tight isobar
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6 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Looks like NE England could see the highest snowfall totals next week, screen grab of 00z EC snow accumulation indicating up to 10 inches day 7 / 00z Fri 2nd March 

2D761940-D7FB-4112-BB2F-B131F24A0772.thumb.png.9d84ae52c96cff4d637f4615ca131d6e.png

If that's remotely accurate won't there be a lot of disappointed people?

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For longevity ECM and JMA both gem and GFS bring low pressure to our southwest which drags round milder air.

But I'm sceptical the models have the retrogression of heights moving through Greenland into the Eastern seaboard of USA.

Longevity is nowhere near nailed,

but a week or so of cold is brilliant I'm happy to see the stratosphere event done it's work help alongside other teleconnections.

I'd say it's fairly possible that even colder 850hpa might get pushed through the southern half of the uk.

As for snow I'm sure fair few will see something wintry at some point.

So interesting model watching still to come will march be a record breaking month.

We shall see but my model picks of the day and yesterday is the ECM jma,

 gefs gem GFS all bring the low to our southwest to close would rather it carry on west into the Mediterranean.

Anyway excellent news winter wonderland is inbound for some.

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2 minutes ago, Johnp said:

If that's remotely accurate won't there be a lot of disappointed people?

But what's that in the English channel push that bit further north seems a very likely possibility to me.

Fax charts will get very interesting over this weekend.

 

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I keep waking up every morning expecting the models to have downgraded, and an uncle Barty to be showing, but nope they just keep getting better and better.

This really is the stuff weather dreams are made of. GFS, UKMO, ECM you are legends (at least whilst you are showing what I want :rofl:

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3 minutes ago, MR EXTREMES said:

But what's that in the English channel push that bit further north seems a very likely possibility to me.

Fax charts will get very interesting over this weekend.

 

That should give a pretty good what the Thames streamer amounts will be like fwiw, once the higher resolution models clock onto it expect the SE amounts to really increase,as per normal in these types of set-ups.

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29 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

Models will struggle forecasting lake effect snow from 3 hours out never mind 3 days.

Indeed. Important thing to remember is the snow doesn’t exist yet. Those modelling supercomputers might be good, but you can’t expect the models not to struggle with precipitation which doesn’t exist yet.

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Here's what the (9km) Netwx-Mr model is thinking in terms of snow cover at the end of the week.

lyingsnow-mr.png

Usual caveats - it's one run blah blah, so subject to significant change. Plus specifically, we know that this version of the model is still not high enough resolution to pick up all the convective stuff, or resolve snow amounts with as much accuracy as the 3km version of the model, but that only goes to 2 days, so we'll have to wait and see what that starts to show!

 

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8 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Special mention to the Gem 00z..it's sensational with incredibly cold days and nights..wherever you look on the 00z it's into the freezer we go!:cold-emoji::shok::D

Save the speeches til April Frosty, the model Baftas will be held then.

At the mintue there are many contenders and categories to choose from:

Most Epic

Best Blizzard

Best Actor

Rising Star

Best Leading Role

Best Ensemble Group

Best Supporting Act

Biggest Crowd Pleaser

Best Visual

And finally...

Best Performance

Results still piling in, check back in 6 weeks.

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21 minutes ago, captaincroc said:

Can I ask the experts a question if possible about this chart. If you look you can see that even though - obviously - the east gets battered, there is a strip running from north Wales, across the north Midlands, NW England. I have seen this area in many a precipitation forecast the past week. Why is it there? As the Pennines seem to stop or lower precipitation further north? Is it a gap in the high ground? Just wondering as IMBY it would affect me but just wondering why that strip seems to always be there?

Wash streamer.

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