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Model output discussion - here comes the beast!


Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

We also have a special post SSW cold spell discussion open here:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89358-ssw-related-cold-spell-will-it-wont-it/

Thank you!

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Early guidance forewarning of next weeks weather was issued earlier on, and this has been further enhanced with extended outlooks in bulletins. AFAIK (comms not being my area) public agencies and majo

Come on those looking for the breadown before the major cold and snow has begun You will be very lucky if that is the correct word to see this in ANY winter in the rest of your lives I would sugg

Microscale detail absorbing an awful lot of attention on here, when in reality it is a waste of emotion. The macroscale pattern is now fixed - it will not change significantly now for the start of nex

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Just now, richardc1983 said:

The charts are wonderful and looking great but my question is the sun too strong this time of year to melt any frost or snow?

Definitely not. Not in temps of -3 during the day and windchill of -15 for some areas. :cold::cold:

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8 minutes ago, richardc1983 said:

The charts are wonderful and looking great but my question is the sun too strong this time of year to melt any frost or snow?

Not with the low dew points. They will be through the floor. Some sublimation is possible though (snow evaporating without melting).

Edited by MattStoke
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10 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Signal- for colder/longer grows massively this morning...

The fridged air becoming locked in!!!!..

#winter #wonderland

MT8_London_ens (1).png

MT8_Aberdeen_ens (1).png

Looks like an increasing signal for a very snowy period next weekend on those charts.

Look at the precipitation spikes during the first few days of March with uppers more than conducive for snowfall!  :cold:

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To summarise....for those of us waking up with trepidation...STILL game on across all suites for at LEAST next week to remain bitterly cold and snowy.

Edited by Southender
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1 minute ago, Kentish Snowman said:

Looks like an increasing signal for a very snowy period next weekend on those charts.

Look at the precipitation spikes during the first few days of March with uppers more than conducive for snowfall!  :cold:

Yes...

Trouble continues to brew..

Stonking ens sets!!!!

?

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14 minutes ago, Raythan said:

In the latter stages of the ecm . Is it picking up on the second warming ? 

Personally I think its picking up the start of the next ice age. :cold:

I've got 4 snow shovels in the garage, hardly been used since 2010, but with this chart I doubt 4 will be enough. 

ECM1-240.GIF?23-12

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17 minutes ago, richardc1983 said:

The charts are wonderful and looking great but my question is the sun too strong this time of year to melt any frost or snow?

Not if it's cold enough, which it looks likely to be. Think about parts of the US where they get incredible amounts of lying snow at times- New York for example at 40 degrees latitude has stronger sun than here. Chicago at around 41 degrees north. 

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Before anyone is surprised by the raw ec data on temp graphs, note there is a ‘warm’ sector heading south late on and maxes are around 5c though dp’s stay sub zero as no precip associated with them on the output. it won’t  happen like that anyway. 

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Whats wrong with UKMO?,that low could move north and bring blizzards to thevSouth ,it would only turn less cold if the low moved north over the UK,stay to the south and it would remain cold,need it to stall in the English channel to bring an  historic blizzard to the coastal counties,like 1881,1895 did

Edited by SLEETY
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8 hours ago, Frosty. said:

Looking forward to the  upgrades tomorrow:D

That's what we have!!..models show the Beast is going to be a direct hit with incredible cold, and where there's snow cover, overnight minimum minus double digits celsius..and there is a lot of snow being shown!:cold-emoji::shok:

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48 minutes ago, richardc1983 said:

The charts are wonderful and looking great but my question is the sun too strong this time of year to melt any frost or snow?

Bear in mind cloud cover too, it can't melt anything if we've got almost constant cloud cover, which given the charts showing the amount of precipitation coming we'd have to have close to 100% cloud cover most of the time 

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