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Model output discussion - here comes the beast!


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I'm sorry but am I looking at different charts?? What's wrong with the ICON?!? I read this forum before checking the model and I thought it had reverted to a westerly zonal flow by what people were commenting! 

Edited by Panayiotis
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Early guidance forewarning of next weeks weather was issued earlier on, and this has been further enhanced with extended outlooks in bulletins. AFAIK (comms not being my area) public agencies and majo

Come on those looking for the breadown before the major cold and snow has begun You will be very lucky if that is the correct word to see this in ANY winter in the rest of your lives I would sugg

Microscale detail absorbing an awful lot of attention on here, when in reality it is a waste of emotion. The macroscale pattern is now fixed - it will not change significantly now for the start of nex

Posted Images

Just now, The Eagle said:

But...

UW144-7.GIF?23-05

Snow fest

Those uppers are a lot colder than I thought they would be at day 6 on UKMO-

Still, as Steve says, the angle of that Iberian low isn't great and would surely soon scoop warmer air across the UK as it just doesn't look like heading E enough

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1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

Those uppers are a lot colder than I thought they would be at day 6 on UKMO-

Still, as Steve says, the angle of that Iberian low isn't great and would surely soon scoop warmer air across the UK as it just doesn't look like heading E enough

yep

just needs to slide east a bit more ---

But very early days yet

we dont want to overlook the fact that at T72 it starts snowing for some then @96 for many then 120-144 nearly all...

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Great runs, once again. The GFS pushes the system at the end of the week far north, but not until it has dumped copius amounts of snow in the south. Not worth worrying about. The GFS is almost always too progressive with such systems.

As for the ICON, are we really going to concern ourselves with what is being shown by a model with one of the worst verification stats for our part of the world? I don't know why people even bother looking at it.

Edited by MattStoke
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19 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Those uppers are a lot colder than I thought they would be at day 6 on UKMO-

Still, as Steve says, the angle of that Iberian low isn't great and would surely soon scoop warmer air across the UK as it just doesn't look like heading E enough

mind you check the JMA from last night & that 156 was almost identical & that slid through nicely

at least we will get an idea on the UKMO 168-

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Not quite as peachy as last night but still looking good. 12z would dump huge falls before turning marginal from the south.

I still strongly suspect that this particular low will swing further south but this will be the eventual evolution. 

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I real concern this morning, the UKMO could see milder air approaching from the south as the majority of the cold pool ends up west of the UK but it is bitter up to day 6.

UW96-21.GIF?23-05   UW120-21.GIF?23-05   UW144-21.GIF?23-05

GFS pretty much like the pub run. Another major snow event though milder air does get into the south at day 8

gfs-0-96.png   gfs-0-144.png   gfs-0-192.png

GEM

gem-0-96.png?00   gem-0-144.png?00   gem-0-192.png?00

Very good to day 8 though this one complicates the cold pool creating distinct areas of low pressure within which eventually pivots the winds to a milder direction.

In the end all of these are very cold from Monday until at least Thursday/Friday where we are a long way from having a clear picture on how things evolve. Again the real risk of disruptive snow exists by the end of next week as low pressure heads north/north east towards the UK.

Not sure what the ICON is playing with here, but the arpege is pretty close to the others at day 4 now.

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http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=6

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datmdlout.aspx    72  hr

nice  to see the bbc  on board  now    the bbc tuesday   but the gfs  says  monday     if the models  are right   town, airports will be shut and cut off by the end of  the  next friday gets here

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Good morning all

Set the alarm very early to have a peak at the charts...look absolutely fantastic to me.

Personally I am looking for a ton of snow over a number of days - large areas of the UK and Ireland are going to get exactly that! :yahoo:

GFS 00z is incredible for snowfall this morning for large swathes of the UK and Ireland. (especially here in Scotland - never ending in parts from Tuesday until the end of the run. Have posted screenshots of the run below from a more Scottish IMBY - tons of snow charts for everyone else also at different times not included)

UKMO is also stunning for snowfall right out until the end of the run for yet again large parts of the UK and Ireland. (charts below)

Yes the threat of milder air reaching the Southern UK later is a threat - however, this is not before you all see a significant amount of snowfall for a number of days. 

Hope everyone has a wonderful day! 

All the best 

:cold::snowman-emoji::cold-emoji:

289BEAE2-82AD-4B0B-87EE-48A45434D934.png

F8F27CA7-71E6-4AEC-8C3D-39C5CC168B0C.png

EA91E20A-CC7F-4A00-9D14-D70FE818DF59.png

E676E409-6C4C-435A-BDDB-4D32D78874A8.png

13D44291-A1FB-4574-9353-0B72C3FC69AA.png

AA2CBE62-9259-486D-86FE-5555F7750931.png

C32758A3-6ED6-4611-87A9-F36A5936AAA2.png

94D1126C-C24E-42FD-B212-E7AB65381776.png

07E4BD8E-5636-46B4-BE29-456F7E97C8E2.png

21C07E47-8657-4C52-A59D-35CA11FABE8E.png

C3CA6E7A-AC89-48CA-9210-BD4E91DAC7E5.png

ADE03F11-F5BA-41C6-A7D8-6B25D700FBA0.png

A52D3684-6A97-4813-8888-9E5E08700534.png

Edited by Mr Frost
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1 hour ago, Panayiotis said:

I'm sorry but am I looking at different charts?? What's wrong with the ICON?!? I read this forum before checking the model and I thought it had reverted to a westerly zonal flow by what people were commenting! 

Totally agree...not one to check the ICON but after reading the posts I went for a quick nose....yep, fallen apart, -10 uppers and a snow event on Friday...terrible!:nonono:

 

I give you, the failed ICON..

ICOOPEU00_177_1.png

Edited by KTtom
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7 minutes ago, terrier said:

So to sum up the runs so far this morning all point towards cold and snowy. Saw some posts earlier about the icon not been great. Are you kidding me -10 and heavy snow widely. And that also goes for ukmo & gfs. Over to you ecm:cold::cold:

Yes icon is fine members should be carefully what they post as its misleading, its a frozen wonderland this am:cold:

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