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Model output discussion - here comes the beast!


Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

We also have a special post SSW cold spell discussion open here:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89358-ssw-related-cold-spell-will-it-wont-it/

Thank you!

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Early guidance forewarning of next weeks weather was issued earlier on, and this has been further enhanced with extended outlooks in bulletins. AFAIK (comms not being my area) public agencies and majo

Come on those looking for the breadown before the major cold and snow has begun You will be very lucky if that is the correct word to see this in ANY winter in the rest of your lives I would sugg

Microscale detail absorbing an awful lot of attention on here, when in reality it is a waste of emotion. The macroscale pattern is now fixed - it will not change significantly now for the start of nex

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The surreal thing about these charts is that they are literally knocking on our door. Many many a year these have appeared at 342hr and deep down we had the knowing they probably wouldn't materialise...and sure enough they didn't.  We are now at a point where our Nirvanas might just be here and it really is surreal to see this unfold...could it really happen?

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2 minutes ago, Catacol said:

First image of fronts attached. What we want is the point at which the warm and cold front merge to pass straight over Somerset :-)

I'm rubbish at reading these mate. Does this show the front that moves North East to South West Tuesday?

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5 minutes ago, Joe Bloggs said:

I’ve just made this point on TWO. Yes I count 4 of the GEFS which show high pressure for much of Northern Britain midday Tuesday with relatively disappointing cold air advection away from the far south east. P17 is the worst. 

In my view if there is a sudden last minute backtrack then it will be something akin to this scenario, but low risk in my view, given all the other output and the vast majority of the GEFS. 

Yeah, as Oasis mentioned it's to do with that little Atlantic low moving to Greenland, I don't think it should be a problem as its just a few runs aggressively developing the low at T72. These rogue ensemble members let the little low cut through the Scandi block like butter and let it pass down to our east. I don't think that is realistic and the vast majority of runs do not develop it or just let it go off into the arctic.

By tomorrow that will be cleared up but I don't expect it to get in the way of things given a clean hit has been such a strong signal over the last 6 runs or so.

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47 minutes ago, NickR said:

The "south" event also seems to hit large parts of the north. Not sure why, for example, the 18z was posted as showing heavy snow in the south when it's all of England and Wales before moving up into S Scotland.

These are England-wide events (maybe Scotland too), GFS, UKMO and ECM as well. The Louise Lear week ahead charts for example shows the low going right up through England.

Understandable that people look for their own area but making it so IMBY is missing the totality of such an exciting and widespread setup.

So, on that note.

186-574UK_xpv7.GIF

Great for Yorkshire.........

(and everywhere else).

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Trending colder

12z                                                                        18z

image.thumb.png.d2c7150a1e7655fb2f826fba3900431d.pngimage.thumb.png.7fc790918a7600ae537b17dc100d31f7.png

DITTO

image.thumb.png.0cd0366c426309427eb577f089d2378a.pngimage.thumb.png.cb02480d24ea1baaad523871d391c9f5.png 

Just keeps on getting better..:D

image.png

Edited by Purga
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7 minutes ago, ukpaul said:

These are England-wide events (maybe Scotland too), GFS, UKMO and ECM as well. The Louise Lear week ahead charts for example shows the low going right up through England.

Understandable that people look for their own area but making it so IMBY is missing the totality of such an exciting and widespread setup.

So, on that note.

186-574UK_xpv7.GIF

Great for Yorkshire.........

(and everywhere else).

These are England wide events? Sorry if I’ve misunderstood but doesn’t that chart show the low progressing straight through the heart of Wales also?

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4 minutes ago, Stevetynant said:

These are England wide events? Sorry if I’ve misunderstood but doesn’t that chart show the low progressing straight through the heart of Wales also?

You see how easy it is to miss people out!

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1 hour ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Right if the GFS comes into fruition I probably won't be able to visit here for a long while.

GFSOPEU18_216_2.png

I'll be back when the power is restored and the snow has finally melted in April :rofl:

In all seriousness though, there would be crazy amounts of snow as that low meanders in the cold air for at least 48 hours!

I would like to think so lol.  However the Gfs are showing  around only 4 inches or so for most of the country apart from the north east where it shows a lot more.  Now 4 inches is not to be sniffed at, but talk of being buried ect, is a bit optimistic

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7 minutes ago, Fender.. said:

I would like to think so lol.  However the Gfs are showing  around only 4 inches or so for most of the country apart from the north east where it shows a lot more.  Now 4 inches is not to be sniffed at, but talk of being buried ect, is a bit optimistic

Not optimistic at all. Not enough emphasise IMO went on snow showers and the potential for them to cause significant disruption across southern and eastern areas. As IF testifies. Snow showers alone could ‘bury’ some areas, 4” each day over a span of a few days it’s going to add these areas likely few than many. Furthermore charts for Wednesday in particular well looking at ECM - I think they’ll be longer spells of snow too coming in from east. What comes after on top then there may be some really significant depths. Also the models you could say have trended less cleanly with bumps in the isobars, suggestive of organised snowfall possible anywhere. A very wintry week ahead I’d say.

Surprise snowfalls will happen next week I have little doubt.

 

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3 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

Big danger signs on the ICON 00z

Yes, it picks up on that shortwave that GFS spotted yesterday, but instead of sending it due N and absorbing it into Greenland, it recurves around the Scandi HP and allows a trough to drop down from the N before the unstable E'ly flow has a chance to get going.

Worrying...I really hope we're not about to repeat history here. It would be so cruel.

Edited by CreweCold
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1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

Yes, it picks up on that shortwave that GFS spotted yesterday, but instead of sending it due N and absorbing it into Greenland, it recurves around the Scandi HP and allows a trough to drop down from the N before the unstable E'ly flow has a chance to get going.

Worrying...I really hope we're not about to repeat history here.

We survive on the UKMO and GFS, just about.

 

Serious warning for anyone who thinks anything is nailed. :/

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3 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

We survive on the UKMO and GFS, just about.

 

Serious warning for anyone who thinks anything is nailed. :/

I've always said that E'lys are never ever nailed until within 72 hrs

Saying that, looking at it again, the ICON run looks relatively implausible given the retrograde pattern and forcing from the HP...but you never know.

Edited by CreweCold
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I wake up, jump straight online & the first model I view is the UKMO 0z run of course.  Arrival commences at T96;

5a8f927c7c088_UN96-21(1).thumb.gif.ce72fad6e728ce80a6fa72a42ac33418.gif

Lovely jubbly;

UN120-21.thumb.gif.74bbb86f47a6259855d5b42281502b8b.gif

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1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

I've always said that E'lys are never ever nailed until within 72 hrs

I do as well. UKMO and GFS may show great charts but personally I am very unhappy with that ICON output. A real spanner in the works. More like Arpege too.

 

Hopefully it will ground others because this is not nailed. 

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