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Model output discussion - here comes the beast!


Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

We also have a special post SSW cold spell discussion open here:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89358-ssw-related-cold-spell-will-it-wont-it/

Thank you!

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Early guidance forewarning of next weeks weather was issued earlier on, and this has been further enhanced with extended outlooks in bulletins. AFAIK (comms not being my area) public agencies and majo

Come on those looking for the breadown before the major cold and snow has begun You will be very lucky if that is the correct word to see this in ANY winter in the rest of your lives I would sugg

Microscale detail absorbing an awful lot of attention on here, when in reality it is a waste of emotion. The macroscale pattern is now fixed - it will not change significantly now for the start of nex

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IMG_1733.PNG.f024715f6769b554b82f14a2958

Seems to be a slight shift north and west of the coldest uppers from this run? (Thinking compared to previous model runs and that of the overall picture as well)
Great run for bitter uppers across the land - snow fest too?
That said, not much buffer to the south if that element comes into play too hard.... could be hinting at a slightly shorter spell of more intense cold maybe?  - Being purposefully tentative in my wording you might notice :D

Edited by Rob Walker
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1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

Gfs 18z models the lps- with heavy snow on the northern flank midlands southwards disruptive snowfall.

Again the track and evolve will flactuate!!!

Interesting to watch this unfold....

Not forgetting our already b4 convective scenarios!!!!

gfs-0-168.png

I love you tight! What does ‘flactuate’ mean?! Variable flatulence?!

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I rarely do hyperbole but honestly forget the snow this windchill will cause serious issues  if it pans out like this this will make headline news. Very much a rare event 

Edited by weirpig
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On this run much of Northern France stays really cold uppers. 12z had the low pressure move up from Iberia and bring much less colder uppers (hardly mild! lol) This run it is very cold still. Inter run variance but still a common theme is the lp moving up from South details still to come. But encouraging for Southern areas and with the North under a unstable airflow. Win Win?

 12Z..thumb.png.7fbd092fc74f4963cad710187bd2873d.png 18Z.thumb.png.11bbc6d9bb51cd741efbff4035bc63c5.png

12Z- LEFT. 18Z RIGHT. 

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5 minutes ago, Rob Walker said:

IMG_1733.PNG.f024715f6769b554b82f14a2958

Seems to be a slight shift north and west of the coldest uppers from this run? (Thinking compared to previous model runs and that of the overall picture as well)
Great run for bitter uppers across the land - snow fest too?
That said, not much buffer to the south if that element comes into play too hard.... could be hinting at a slightly shorter spell of more intense cold maybe?  - Being purposefully tentative in my wording you might notice :D

Okay I think I may just have to take that back.... 
gfs-0-180.png?18

Obviously was lulled into getting twitchy there!

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A rare near total snow event for the UK on this run for the end of the week. Long way to go but there is IMO something of a trend towards a further lowering of pressure over W.Europe. Who knows whether that will lead to an attack from the south or whether it ends up sliding to our south and just amplifying the easterly. Both are VERY nice options to have!

Anyway well done pub run, you've produced another crazy run!!

Edited by kold weather
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11 minutes ago, Mark N said:

Obviously precip will be picked up much closer to the time for details etc.. But encouraging that models such as GFS/ECM are now picking up on the cold flow, for convectional purposes even though they don't always take this account. It certainly ain't forecasting to be dry thats for sure, Troughs around, showery airstream from East. Then fronts approaching from S/SW/E. 

1..gif2.gif3.gif

4.gif 

This is the predicted skew-t for Doncaster on 27 th to fit the chart shown; tops generally to about 18,000 ft

https://www.netweather.tv/secure/cgi-bin/premium.pl?action=cskew;sess=060a79f6cf9d87937488f22e2618cc98

No not a ramp.

Kids stuff being forecast really 1 week perhaps 10 days. Yes I vaguely remember 1947 and only too well 1962-63. 3-4 days may be fun beyond that come on spring, please.

Edited by johnholmes
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1 minute ago, Freezing-Point said:

Very 1991.  Snow showers turning into prolonged periods of heavy snow with drifting

Best snow run I have ever seen. It would possibly put 91 in the shade. The drifts certainly would anyway. 

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