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Paul

Model output discussion - here comes the beast!

Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

We also have a special post SSW cold spell discussion open here:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89358-ssw-related-cold-spell-will-it-wont-it/

Thank you!

Message added by Paul

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1 minute ago, Mucka said:On the model output thread with an upcoming cold spell looming?

You crazy! :crazy:

I’m not telling people not to worry . I’d be on the Prozac already or some sedative to cope ! :D

All I’m saying is let’s get the first cold wave nailed down , so fair enough worry about that but the pattern past that first cold is dictated by what the eventual solution is that verifies before T144 hrs.

The are a variety of options on the table.

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Isolated the op alongside the mean, so that people can check against it for future reference (n.b. for central UK)

Ar3DZPV.thumb.png.6324b0024d77f75813facf22997351ae.png

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And for the 2m temps, which shows the effect more starkly.

vyHpVBy.thumb.png.51f1c7d45a12daf1250430c70c021b60.png

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The GEFS 12z mean is perfection next week, high further North and severe wintry weather nationwide!!..far better than the watered down Gfs 12z op!:cold:

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12z ensembles 

graphe_ens3_xah0.gif

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Pressure on the op and control higher than the mean beyond day 8

Edited by SN0W SN0W SN0W

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JMA shows no shortwave dramas

1E13C62C-D76E-4AE5-8156-96957975990B.thumb.gif.53182548146532fadc55e21b6e904e11.gif

Aligning nicely 

Edited by karlos1983

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I refrained from posting earlier after the GFS 12z went a different root to previous runs because I New it was gonna get silly in here 😩. It's still a stunning run all the way out , ok it's maybe not as good as previous runs but still very good . We have had upgrade after upgrade the last few days, we we're always gonna get a not so good run . These are stunning charts still - 

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1 minute ago, ScottishSnowStorm said:

Not alot of change in the ensembles for fife from the 6z to the 12z the mean actually a little colder at the end 

Screenshot_20180220-174438.thumb.png.7f5a922b9572da8a13a2ff70ddef029d.png

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Yep, my interpretation on the subtle changes there would be a slightly slower transition from cold to very cold and a better shot at prolonging it :)

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1 hour ago, Seasonality said:

Not touching distance being up in Scandi, but a damn cold pool of air over Europe just the same. Just look at the projected 2m temps.

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I did say 'almost' within touching distance. There is only one way that cold pool would head though if it verified like that.

Whilst the GFS isn't a bad run you can't help thinking given the synoptic background it would almost be wasteful in not achieving full potential on offer. 

On reflection, taking a blend of GFS, UKMO, GEM & ICON would probably be ideal for the UK as a whole. Hopefully ECM will align with this blended solution.

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As ever there are more than a few ways for any predicted cold spell to go Pete Tong whether that be shortwave dramas (ARPEGE), complicated trough disruption (GEM), inflated highs and too-dry air (GFS)  or the plain and simple problem of predicting what the weather will do, never mind attempting resolution in the middle of a record-breaking SSW. For those wanting to scrap in the backyard I suggest you fire up the Playstation and take out some aggression on Street Fighter rather than clog up the Mod thread. @bluearmy's advice to wait for clarity is no doubt well-judged. For those needing some cheer, @Catacol's recent ramps have been joyful reading. Otherwise, heads down for the ECM and a reflective review of today's ensembles later this evening. Methinks the inflated high and the Op likely to sit at the top of the ENS, although that doesn't mean it can't/won't happen. Be interested to see whether UKMO extended can shed any light on the shape/alignment of the troublesome high in the meantime.

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Does go to show how perfect everything needs to be to get both cold and snow. We probably have a 500 mile window, Too far South of that its cold but too dry, too far North shortwaves can mess everything up. As others have said. Lets get to Sunday when the Eaterly has started then we can begin to focus on snow.

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4 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

The MSLP ensembles are instructive for the 12z GFS, op very much at the higher end.

gefsensmslpLondon (1).png

Paired with the control though. Should we place more stock in it therefore? :)

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Looking at the Gem 12z..becoming very cold next week and staying very cold beyond day 10 which also goes for nearly every Gem 12z ensemble..locked in very cold from the E / NE and even N longer term with strong blocking.:):cold-emoji:

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1 minute ago, Steel City Skies said:

Paired with the control though. Should we place more stock in it therefore? :)

Not sure because with that cold air mass crossing the North Sea disturbances are going to form in the flow. Main thing is to get the cold pool towards us at a good angle and see what transpires :)

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Just now, Steel City Skies said:

Paired with the control though. Should we place more stock in it therefore? :)

The control run has the exact same starting data as the op but run at the same lower resolution as the rest of the ensemble members. So they will often be similar, right or wrong.

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Just now, MattStoke said:

I'm baffled. Not by the model output but by the reaction to it. Great runs once again.

A lot of people, me included, dont care for temperatures of -10c if its going to be bone dry? Not taking any one individual run too seriously though, just pointing out why some would, justifiably imo, be concerned by the 12z were it to become a trend.

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2 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

I'm baffled. Not by the model output but by the reaction to it. Great runs once again.

 

We're on the cusp of what everyone has been yearning for, yet this thread is full of drama queens this afternoon.

 

Some cracking charts, and yet still some are complaining. Pftb.

Edited by Bogman

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1 minute ago, radiohead said:

The control run has the exact same starting data as the op but run at the same lower resolution as the rest of the ensemble members. So they will often be similar, right or wrong.

Nope - Same starting data, same resolution. 

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13 minutes ago, ScottishSnowStorm said:

Not alot of change in the ensembles for fife from the 6z to the 12z the mean actually a little colder at the end 

Screenshot_20180220-174438.thumb.png.7f5a922b9572da8a13a2ff70ddef029d.png

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The concentration of runs with -10C uppers suggests a transfer of the coldest weather to the north as we go into March

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