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Model output discussion - here comes the beast!


Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

We also have a special post SSW cold spell discussion open here:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89358-ssw-related-cold-spell-will-it-wont-it/

Thank you!

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Early guidance forewarning of next weeks weather was issued earlier on, and this has been further enhanced with extended outlooks in bulletins. AFAIK (comms not being my area) public agencies and majo

Come on those looking for the breadown before the major cold and snow has begun You will be very lucky if that is the correct word to see this in ANY winter in the rest of your lives I would sugg

Microscale detail absorbing an awful lot of attention on here, when in reality it is a waste of emotion. The macroscale pattern is now fixed - it will not change significantly now for the start of nex

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this little beaut- will be catching my eye from here on in...

we need a northwards track...so it engages and wallop....servere impactual snowfall on landing!!!!!

18z cracking in all other departments also!!!

Screenshot_2018-02-22-22-09-26.png

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5 minutes ago, pages said:

think this run is going to very different in FI pub run decided to take the main vortex towards Alaska between 96 and 114hr haven't seen this on any ensemble, block aint getting west of Greenland here.

gfsnh-0-108.png?18

The position of the high remains unchanged here. It will likely retrogress as we go further in. 

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Heights starting to build over Greenland by 136 but the 850 chart is very different at that stage, minus twenty four as opposed to minus twelve. Stifling any northerly element?

Edited by ukpaul
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144Hrs. Looks lovely!  Notice the isobars beginning to tighten across the UK (especially to the south). That system to the South closes in but edges further east in process than the previous 12z. Great heights to the NW and Greenland. 

gfs-0-144.png

Edited by Mark N
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15 minutes ago, SnowBallz said:

Early guidance forewarning of next weeks weather was issued earlier on, and this has been further enhanced with extended outlooks in bulletins. AFAIK (comms not being my area) public agencies and major private infrastructure will begin a daily briefing cycle as of tomorrow. To revisit previous post, latest MR output (MOG) resolving to further mute ‘breakdown’ scenario; with continental blocking signal reinforcing through well into March. Atlantic incursions are expected with southerly deflection; considerable potential for extensive and disruptive snowfall as these air masses interact. Short term, ECM:UKMO evolution favoured and considered likeliest; corresponds well with other products and illustrates fair consistency.

Small ramp.  Next week = mega.

SB :)

A @SnowBallz and @Team Jo ramp in the same week?...must be some sort of 10-20-30-30,000-year event approaching :D Overall consistency from the models has been exemplary today and the METO's preference for the ECM:UKMO synoptic outlook further highlight's next week's potential for an historic cold spell. GFS continues to taunt with variations on a theme but the cold's coming, that's not in doubt, the issue now is how hard it might snow and where. Too soon to say beyond general guidance oft repeated this week but for once let's enjoy the ride rather than hang ourselves with specifics in the confident knowledge model watching for the next week or two is going to be not just interesting but almost certain to pay dividends for many. Great stuff. If the Met are issuing daily guidance you can be assured the fan's about to ice over.

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Brilliant tracking of that Azores low on this run. If it sets up shop in Southern France the snow machine is going to be on all day and all night from the East coast.

Edited by Snowy L
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Obviously precip will be picked up much closer to the time for details etc.. But encouraging that models such as GFS/ECM are now picking up on the cold flow, for convectional purposes even though they don't always take this account. It certainly ain't forecasting to be dry thats for sure, Troughs around, showery airstream from East. Then fronts approaching from S/SW/E. 

1..gif2.gif3.gif

4.gif 

Edited by Mark N
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Gfs 18z models the lps- with heavy snow on the northern flank midlands southwards disruptive snowfall.

Again the track and evolve will flactuate!!!

Interesting to watch this unfold....

Not forgetting our already b4 convective scenarios!!!!

 

 

@fluctuate!!!

?

gfs-0-168.png

Edited by tight isobar
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