Model output discussion - here comes the beast!

[MattStoke 6,415]

I think it's good to start giving more detail on next week's snow risk based on current model output and parameters..

When? - Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday.

Where? - Anywhere.

To what levels? - All Levels.

Hopefully that narrows it down a bit.

[Ice Day 7,151]

Well what a stellar day today, we've gone back into upgrade mode again!  I stated on here on Monday that I was holding back my hopes until Thursday, well it's Thursday and the models are looking unbelievably good, with pretty much unanimous agreement at 144...here's the UKMO, GFS and ECM at that timeframe

  

   

Add to that, that the means are also looking amazingly good.  It's been said on here many times over the last few days, but it's worth reiterating.....these are THE BEST runs I have seen since becoming a member on here almost 10 years ago.  Yes, better than 2009, 2010 and 2013.  This 'could' be close to 1991 if this lands as modelled and could even top both '91 and '87 for longevity given the Met Office updates.  We're in dreamland at the moment, just a few short days to go.  Fingers crossed that this consistency continues for the next few runs.

Right 18z, time to do you thing.

[pyrotech 647]

Meteogroup use all models including the met office models , GFS and ECM

The Met office also used to look at GFS and would consider its out put.

 Everything we see and more is being viewed, like us the main forecaster will make a call based on likelihood mainly using the consistence between models and different runs. They do of course have the luxury of very high resolution Met  models  too.

Details between the main models tonight are pretty similar, small details  on snow, where and how much will be 24 hours out for most, but i think the East coast can start celebrating now. Further West IMBY i thinks its very likely that snow will occur and its just slight changes that will decide exactly when. This looks more like 1987 to me, but what ever the final outcome i would suggest all models indicate , that for a change elevation and M4 are not going to be the issues they normally are for settled snow. Hope you all get something.

[Team Jo 4,536]

Pleeeeeeeeease... 

there's a whole thread on NW about the BBC

There's another which is just about the cold spell

If you switch tabs away from the mod thread to post in another (More appropriate thread) the cold isn't going to run off and go elsewhere..... but your post might. (Sorry)

[terrier 1,655]

Pub run looking good so far 

[WalsallWeather123 331]

ICON 18z not too different from ECM. Very good run with snow showers piling in from the North Sea

[Connor Bailey Degnan 825]

Icon 18z a tad further south, imo better for prolonging the cold.

[snowice 1,898]

15 minutes ago, Team Jo said:

Oh haaaaai

We've been very liberal with the topic drift this eve, there's obviously a LOT of excitement in here tonight, can I just ask that before the pub run rolls and everyone goes bananas that general winter commentary/IMBY etc goes in the appropriate thread........

Ta!

Just wanted to say thanks for been liberal for last few days the thread has been fantastic! I'll shut up now or else I'll be in the bin18z  is rolling more  exciting runs ahead 

[Man Without Beard 24,965]

ICON keeps the mega cold coming for the south up to T120 but just a tad less cold for the north.

One of the interesting developments of the day is this new possibility of Scotland being with worst hit by the cold, but less certainty in projected upper temperatures up there - anywhere between minus 10 and even minus 20. 

The south, aside a few spoilers, looks solid for uppers in low to mid teens below freezing at the height of the cold spell, or maybe slightly colder still if the outliers have it right. The ICON 18Z looks like continuing that trend.

Edited February 22, 2018 by Man With Beard

[pages 336]

6 minutes ago, WalsallWeather123 said:

ICON 18z not too different from ECM. Very good run with snow showers piling in from the North Sea

yep almost identical to ECM on NH view aswell. looking good. wonder if we can get the pub run to be identical aswell. that would be great as you would assume would then follow ecm in later stages and we know how good that was..

[cheese 4,091]

Looks like ICON has picked up on that little feature exiting Norway that WRF-NMM has been showing for a while now. That brings less cold 850s to the north but by the same token brings in a dumping of snow to parts of Eastern Scotland and NE England/Yorkshire. One to watch as there's consistency there.

Edited February 22, 2018 by cheese

[Purga 5,216]

De Bilt ECMF ENS very cold all next week and only rising to 'cold' the week after when the 'noise' occurs - still plenty of very cold runs (majority clustering) though right to the end (9th March)

[Summer Sun 52,830]

The only real change from ICON 18z is northern and western Scotland have uppers around -6 instead of -10's and -12's steady as you go elsewhere

18z

12z

[ukpaul 958]

Icon still great for the feature crossing the north on Tuesday, maybe better, but it’s losing the Greenland heights and that may have longer term implications.

Edited February 22, 2018 by ukpaul

[SnowBallz 1,805]

9 minutes ago, Weegaz said:

Snow shovels at the ready

Would you guys expect MetO to issue warnings tomorrow based on current model output? 

The major problem I see at the minute is next winter anything modelled is just not going to be good enough......spectacular viewing the past week

Early guidance forewarning of next weeks weather was issued earlier on, and this has been further enhanced with extended outlooks in bulletins. AFAIK (comms not being my area) public agencies and major private infrastructure will begin a daily briefing cycle as of tomorrow. To revisit previous post, latest MR output (MOG) resolving to further mute ‘breakdown’ scenario; with continental blocking signal reinforcing through well into March. Atlantic incursions are expected with southerly deflection; considerable potential for extensive and disruptive snowfall as these air masses interact. Short term, ECM:UKMO evolution favoured and considered likeliest; corresponds well with other products and illustrates fair consistency.

Small ramp.  Next week = mega.

SB

[tight isobar 15,024]

Gfs 18z @78 -12 850hpa large swathe eastern flank....

Once again i find myself saying. ..

Cracking run coming up...

Smooth as ice..18z..

[reef 3,287]

So, just on the last 3 pages alone that's 32 posts that have had to be removed for being off-topic. That's despite three warnings from the team asking nicely for people to think before they post.

This thread is very busy and people are understandably very excited, but please do us (and everyone) a favour and stick to the models!

Thanks

[ICE COLD 11,330]

This now at only T96 on GFS 18z 

[Eskimo 5,792]

Little feature still showing up. 10-15cm+ off that. 

[Mike Poole 29,659]

Woooooah beast, look at the head on that at T108

[Purga 5,216]

1 hour ago, The Eagle said:

Here she comes...

 

Cheers again Eddie!

[ukpaul 958]

GFS has the system south of Greenland not allowing the secondary low to separate, thus not allowing it to build heights there. Need to keep an eye on the knock on effect.

[Stuie W 1,861]

Not an IMBY post but it appears that most models have the brutal uppers catching East Anglia / Midlands / South on Monday.

And a lovely `kinky` isobar on Tuesday...

 

[pages 336]

think this run is going to very different in FI pub run decided to take the main vortex towards Alaska between 96 and 114hr haven't seen this on any ensemble, block aint getting west of Greenland here.

[MattStoke 6,415]

GFS a little further south so far. I wouldn't be surprised to see it continue to push a little further south the next few days and come more inline with the ECM. Better for prolonged cold and a stronger easterly flow.