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Model output discussion - here comes the beast!

Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

We also have a special post SSW cold spell discussion open here:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/89358-ssw-related-cold-spell-will-it-wont-it/

Thank you!

Message added by Paul

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ICON rolling out and looks almost identical to its 12z. Perhaps just a smidge south. A smidge!!!

E64576D4-AAC8-4E96-BF52-9CCF3A4188B6.thumb.png.8962f1a1ab49697f6e1ad7985cf39117.pngD368BC77-9152-439F-846C-4B7D2F131B66.thumb.png.cd7d4829f9fee2719c2b7e66d663c724.png

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I think it's good to start giving more detail on next week's snow risk based on current model output and parameters..

When? - Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday.

Where? - Anywhere.

To what levels? - All Levels.

Hopefully that narrows it down a bit.

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Well what a stellar day today, we've gone back into upgrade mode again!  I stated on here on Monday that I was holding back my hopes until Thursday, well it's Thursday and the models are looking unbelievably good, with pretty much unanimous agreement at 144...here's the UKMO, GFS and ECM at that timeframe

Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions gfsnh-0-144.png?12 ECH1-144.GIF?22-0

Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions  gfs-1-144.png?12 ECM0-144.GIF?22-0

Add to that, that the means are also looking amazingly good.  It's been said on here many times over the last few days, but it's worth reiterating.....these are THE BEST runs I have seen since becoming a member on here almost 10 years ago.  Yes, better than 2009, 2010 and 2013.  This 'could' be close to 1991 if this lands as modelled and could even top both '91 and '87 for longevity given the Met Office updates.  We're in dreamland at the moment, just a few short days to go.  Fingers crossed that this consistency continues for the next few runs.

Right 18z, time to do you thing.

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Meteogroup use all models including the met office models , GFS and ECM

The Met office also used to look at GFS and would consider its out put.

 Everything we see and more is being viewed, like us the main forecaster will make a call based on likelihood mainly using the consistence between models and different runs. They do of course have the luxury of very high resolution Met  models  too.

Details between the main models tonight are pretty similar, small details  on snow, where and how much will be 24 hours out for most, but i think the East coast can start celebrating now. Further West IMBY i thinks its very likely that snow will occur and its just slight changes that will decide exactly when. This looks more like 1987 to me, but what ever the final outcome i would suggest all models indicate , that for a change elevation and M4 are not going to be the issues they normally are for settled snow. Hope you all get something.

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Pleeeeeeeeease... 

there's a whole thread on NW about the BBC

There's another which is just about the cold spell

If you switch tabs away from the mod thread to post in another (More appropriate thread) the cold isn't going to run off and go elsewhere..... but your post might. (Sorry)

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15 minutes ago, Team Jo said:

Oh haaaaai

We've been very liberal with the topic drift this eve, there's obviously a LOT of excitement in here tonight, can I just ask that before the pub run rolls and everyone goes bananas that general winter commentary/IMBY etc goes in the appropriate thread........

Ta!

Just wanted to say thanks for been liberal for last few days the thread has been fantastic! I'll shut up now or else I'll be in the bin:hi:18z  is rolling more  exciting runs ahead :)

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ICON keeps the mega cold coming for the south up to T120 but just a tad less cold for the north.

One of the interesting developments of the day is this new possibility of Scotland being with worst hit by the cold, but less certainty in projected upper temperatures up there - anywhere between minus 10 and even minus 20. 

The south, aside a few spoilers, looks solid for uppers in low to mid teens below freezing at the height of the cold spell, or maybe slightly colder still if the outliers have it right. The ICON 18Z looks like continuing that trend.

Edited by Man With Beard

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6 minutes ago, WalsallWeather123 said:

ICON 18z not too different from ECM. Very good run with snow showers piling in from the North Sea

image.png

image.png

yep almost identical to ECM on NH view aswell. looking good. wonder if we can get the pub run to be identical aswell. that would be great as you would assume would then follow ecm in later stages and we know how good that was..

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Looks like ICON has picked up on that little feature exiting Norway that WRF-NMM has been showing for a while now. That brings less cold 850s to the north but by the same token brings in a dumping of snow to parts of Eastern Scotland and NE England/Yorkshire. One to watch as there's consistency there.

Edited by cheese

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De Bilt ECMF ENS very cold all next week and only rising to 'cold' the week after when the 'noise' occurs - still plenty of very cold runs (majority clustering) though right to the end (9th March)

image.thumb.png.9e31eaa6d359fdc5e4108d96e3573d57.png

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The only real change from ICON 18z is northern and western Scotland have uppers around -6 instead of -10's and -12's steady as you go elsewhere

18z

icon-1-120.thumb.png.c4d14b1448c30a8e96f6c9e2f7a516e6.png

12z

icon-1-126.thumb.png.a70ad25e06a962fcfb80528802abc5ff.png

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Icon still great for the feature crossing the north on Tuesday, maybe better, but it’s losing the Greenland heights and that may have longer term implications.

Edited by ukpaul

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Gfs 18z @78 -12 850hpa large swathe eastern flank....

Once again i find myself saying. ..

Cracking run coming up...

Smooth as ice..18z..

gfseu-0-78.png

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1 hour ago, The Eagle said:

Here she comes...

 

tempresult_azd9.gif

Cheers again Eddie!

image.thumb.png.0d2d6a096040e5c12751c08288a271db.png

:good:

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GFS has the system south of Greenland not allowing the secondary low to separate, thus not allowing it to build heights there. Need to keep an eye on the knock on effect.

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Not an IMBY post but it appears that most models have the brutal uppers catching East Anglia / Midlands / South on Monday.

gfsnh-1-108.png?18?18

And a lovely `kinky` isobar on Tuesday...

gfsnh-0-114.png?18

 

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think this run is going to very different in FI pub run decided to take the main vortex towards Alaska between 96 and 114hr haven't seen this on any ensemble, block aint getting west of Greenland here.

gfsnh-0-108.png?18

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